This week's heavy schedule: China and the United States impact the market, Huawei and Apple face off on the same day

A summary of major financial events from September 9th to September 15th, all in Beijing time:

Key focus this week: a series of important data for China in August, the 11th meeting of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee, Apple and Huawei holding new product launch events on the same day, the first TV debate between Harris and Trump, and the ECB monetary policy meeting.

In addition, the US will release CPI data for August, and Oracle, Adobe, and Game Station will sequentially release their latest financial reports.

A series of data on China's economy, finance, imports and exports in August

Monday (September 9th), the National Bureau of Statistics released China's CPI and PPI data for August.

The data released last month by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's CPI in July increased by 0.5% year-on-year, up from 0.2% previously, with a month-on-month growth rate turning from a decline to an increase; PPI decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, the same as before, with a flat month-on-month rate; the core CPI excluding food and energy prices turned from a 0.1% decrease last month to a 0.3% increase, higher than the average level of the same period in the past ten years.

Analysis by Galaxy Securities' Zhang Di believes that the month-on-month positive turn in July's CPI was mainly driven by the rebound in vegetable and pork prices. It is expected that the rebound in pork prices, low base effect, and continued macro policy efforts will support the three main themes of maintaining a moderate price trend in the second half of the year, with overall inflation continuing to be moderate.

Specifically, resilient service spending is expected to support a slight increase in core CPI, and PPI is unlikely to turn positive within the year, with a recovery requiring policy efforts.

Everbright Fixed Income stated that seasonal factors led to a certain degree of increase in the year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates of CPI in August, but the performance of core CPI was not strong. PPI continued to be negative on a month-on-month basis, showing clear signs of bottoming out.

Tuesday (September 10th), the General Administration of Customs of China released trade balance and import/export data for August.

The data released last month by the General Administration of Customs of China showed that China's imports in US dollars accelerated in July, marking the largest increase in three months, while export growth slowed to 7%, narrowing the trade surplus.

Director of the Statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, Lv Daliang, stated that since the beginning of this year, China's economy has been generally stable, making progress while maintaining stability, and foreign trade has maintained a trend of steady improvement: in the first 7 months, the scale of China's imports and exports reached a new high for the same period in history, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth in July both exceeding 5% for four consecutive monthsThe Director of the National Bureau of Statistics stated that overall, China's foreign trade shows strong resilience. In the second half of the year, with the continuous manifestation of the policy effects of stabilizing scale and optimizing structure in foreign trade, China's exports are expected to remain basically stable, and the trade surplus in goods will continue.

On Saturday (September 14), the National Bureau of Statistics released a series of economic data for China in August, including social retail sales and real estate development investment.

Data released last month showed that the growth rate of China's total retail sales of consumer goods in July rebounded, with rapid growth in communication equipment, sports and entertainment goods, and grain, oil, and food categories, while consumption of gold, silver, jewelry, and cosmetics declined.

In July, China's profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.1% year-on-year, accelerating for two consecutive months. From January to July, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 4.09917 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.1 percentage points compared to January to June.

Regarding real estate development investment, national real estate development investment in the first half of the year was 5.2529 trillion yuan, a decrease of 10.1% year-on-year, maintaining the same pace of decline as the previous month. The sales area of newly built commercial residential buildings was 479.16 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 19.0%, with the pace of decline narrowing compared to the previous month.

Liu Aihua, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, chief economist, and Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated at a press conference after the data was released that in July, China's economy operated overall steadily, making progress in stability with advancement, and solidly promoting high-quality development. However, there is still insufficient domestic effective demand, pains in the transformation of old and new driving forces, and the continued upward trend of the economy still faces many difficult challenges.

The 11th Session of the 14th NPC Standing Committee

According to Xinhua News Agency, the 29th Chairperson's Meeting of the 14th NPC Standing Committee was held at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on the morning of the 27th. Chairman Zhao Leji presided over the meeting. The meeting decided that the 11th session of the 14th NPC Standing Committee will be held in Beijing from September 10 to 13.

Tianfeng Macro believes that since adjusting the fiscal deficit requires approval by the National People's Congress, the upcoming meeting of the NPC Standing Committee to review the implementation of the budget this year from September 10 to 13 will be the first important window to observe whether fiscal policy will be intensified. Following last year's practice, the news announcement after the closing of the Standing Committee is crucial.

First TV Debate between US Presidential Candidates Harris and Trump

On Wednesday (September 11) at 9:00 am, the second debate between the two major party candidates for the US presidential election will be held in Philadelphia, lasting an estimated 90 minutes.

It is reported that this debate will be the first direct confrontation between Harris, who replaced Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate, and Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, a swing state with the largest population.

Soochow Securities summarized that in terms of debate rules, on the evening of September 10 local time, Trump and Harris will engage in a 90-minute live TV debate, with no audience present, and the opponent's microphone will be muted when the other is speaking. Harris had previously requested to have the microphone on throughout the debate (to expose Trump's character flaws), but on September 5, she agreed to the mute rule. There may be another debate between the two in October, but no specific arrangements have been made yet.

Regarding the debate topics, it is expected to be similar to the debate between Trump and Biden on June 27, focusing on domestic economic policies, including inflation, corporate and individual taxation, housing, immigration, and other issues. How Harris, lacking policy experience, will handle this is a major point of interest.

Currently, the two candidates are competing vigorously on economic issues.

Harris unveiled her economic policy on September 3, stating that she plans to significantly increase tax cuts for small businesses. For newly established small businesses, the tax exemption threshold will be raised from the current $5,000 to $50,000, aiming to compete for middle-class votes. In addition, in order to win the votes of blue-collar workers in swing states, Harris also publicly opposed the acquisition of American steel companies by Japanese companies.

Trump, on the other hand, advocates combining tariffs with tax cuts to revitalize American manufacturing, continuing his consistent political slogan "Make America Great Again (MAGA)", and aims to increase job opportunities and benefit the American working class. Currently, Trump's campaign team has not disclosed detailed tax policies. The campaign team has stated that Trump will fund the tax cut plan by cutting wasteful spending and increasing energy output to reduce national debt.

In a recent report led by Jan Hatzius, the team of economists at Goldman Sachs analyzed that the November election may affect the US trade, immigration, and fiscal policies next year, thereby influencing aspects such as inflation, labor growth, GDP growth, and fiscal deficits.

Apple vs. Huawei on the Same Day: iPhone 16 vs. Extraordinary Master

At 1:00 am on Tuesday (September 10), Apple will hold a new product launch event at its headquarters in Cupertino, California.

The theme of this Apple event is "It's glowtime", and it is expected that Apple will unveil the new iPhone 16 series and Apple Watch models.

The iPhone 16 will be the highlight of this Apple event. According to the latest information from the media and the industry chain, the iPhone 16 will be upgraded in both software and hardware, aiming to become a model AI phone. It is reported that the iPhone 16 will include four models: base model, Plus, Pro, and Pro MaxWall Street News previously summarized that the iPhone 16 may have the following configurations:

The iPhone 16 model will be equipped with a more powerful A18 chip to work with Apple Intelligence, and the entire iPhone 16 series will support the new iOS 18.

The display sizes of the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max will be 6.3 inches and 6.9 inches, respectively.

The iPhone 16 series will introduce an Action Button, which will be used for the first time in the basic iPhone model.

The iPhone 16 series will feature a Capture Button for taking photos, located below the power button on the right side. This button is similar to the shutter button on a digital camera, lightly pressing it will autofocus, making shooting more precise. Pressing it firmly will directly take a photo, and users can zoom in and out by sliding the button left and right. The button can switch between photo and video functions.

The iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max will be equipped with a 48-megapixel ultra-wide-angle camera, a significant increase from the 12 million pixels of the iPhone 15.

On the same day (September 10) at 14:30, Huawei will hold the Extraordinary Brand Ceremony and HarmonyOS Smart Travel New Product Launch Event.

At this event, Huawei is expected to launch a new smart travel solution and related products based on the HarmonyOS operating system, further expanding the boundaries of its smart ecosystem. Reports suggest that this event may unveil Huawei's long-planned new electric car and the world's first mass-produced triple-fold screen phone, the Huawei Mate XT Masterpiece.

Previously, the Huawei Mate XT Masterpiece has appeared in the public eye multiple times, featuring a design with "inner fold + outer fold + dual hinge" that unfolds to nearly 10 inches, powered by the Kirin 9 series platform. At 12:08 on September 7, Huawei Mate XT Masterpiece began pre-orders, and in less than 24 hours, Huawei's official website showed that the number of pre-orders for this product has exceeded 2 million.

Analysts believe that if the Huawei Mate XT can achieve "aerial imaging" technology, it will be an innovative breakthrough with epoch-making significance, likely leading the smartphone industry into a new development stage. As Richard Yu previously stated: this is Huawei's most pioneering, innovative, and disruptive product.

It is worth noting that there are reports that the iPhone 16 may officially go on sale on September 20, while the Huawei Mate XT Masterpiece will also go on sale at 10:08 on September 20, indicating that the Huawei triple-fold and Apple iPhone 16 may be released and go on sale on the same day.

Key Week Before the September Fed Rate Decision

With only one week left until the September monetary policy meeting (September 19th), the Federal Reserve has entered a quiet period. Several data releases this week will provide more guidance on the rate cut path:

Monday (September 9th): New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectations for August in the U.S.

Tuesday (September 10th): NFIB Small Business Confidence Index for August in the U.S.

Wednesday (September 11th): Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August in the U.S.

Thursday (September 12th): Initial jobless claims up to September 7th in the U.S., Producer Price Index (PPI) for August in the U.S.

Friday (September 13th): Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September, preliminary 1-year inflation rate expectations, Import Price Index for August in the U.S.

Will the ECB's Second Rate Cut of the Year Arrive as Scheduled?

On Thursday (September 12th), the European Central Bank (ECB) will hold its latest monetary policy meeting.

The ECB initiated a milestone rate cut of 25 basis points in June this year, but kept rates unchanged in July as scheduled. Currently, the market is betting that the ECB will cut rates twice more this year, each time by 25 basis points, with September being one of those times.

In the minutes of the July monetary policy meeting, the ECB stated that monetary policy transmission is proceeding as planned, while signals from potential inflation indicators are mixed, requiring more data to prove the downward trend in inflation. Considering that more data will be released in September, the next monetary policy meeting will be a "good opportunity" to reassess monetary policy.

According to the latest survey of economists by the media, the inflation rate in the Eurozone is expected to drop to 2.2% in August, after unexpectedly rising to 2.6% in July. This optimistic outlook even includes the anticipated decline in core price pressures, as the Eurozone core CPI has remained at 2.9% for three consecutive months.

At the annual global central bank meeting held at the end of August in Jackson Hole, U.S., senior officials from the ECB's rate-setting committee presented reasons for further easing monetary policy at the September meeting.

Two Major Financial Reports in the AI Sector

After the U.S. stock market closes on Monday, Oracle will release its Q1 FY2025 financial report.

The financial report released in the previous quarter showed that Oracle achieved a non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.63, below the expected $1.65; revenue increased by 3% year-on-year to $14.29 billion, below the expected $14.55 billion, and the growth rate also slowed down compared to the 7% growth in the previous quarterDespite the overall performance falling short of expectations, Oracle announced partnerships with Microsoft, OpenAI, and Google Cloud on the same day. The management team is confident in the future performance, expecting double-digit revenue growth by the 2025 fiscal year, surpassing analysts' expectations.

During the earnings call, Oracle executives expressed that the demand for cloud services remains strong, expecting it to further drive Oracle's sales and RPO (reflecting order backlog and potential future revenue scale).

Adobe is set to release its 2024 Q3 financial report on Thursday local time.

The financial report for the previous quarter showed that Adobe's quarterly revenue and profit exceeded expectations, with record-high quarterly revenue. Although the revenue guidance for the next quarter is slightly below expectations, the full-year target was raised above expectations.

The Adobe management mentioned that due to the strong growth of Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and Experience Cloud, they achieved record-high quarterly revenue. "Our highly differentiated AI approach and innovative product delivery have attracted more and more customers," leading to an upward revision of annual targets for net new ARR in digital media, digital experience subscription revenue, and EPS.

Some analysts believe that Adobe's profitability steadily increased from 2017 to 2023, with market expectations of a decline this year followed by a rebound in 2025. The company's earnings per share were $16.07 last year, expected to decrease to $14.13 per share in 2024, and rise again to $16.17 per share in 2025.

Other Important Data, Conferences, and Events

Inaugural Huawei Hisilicon Full-Connectivity Conference

Hisilicon Technologies Co., Ltd. announced that the inaugural Hisilicon Full-Connectivity Conference will be held on September 9, 2024, in Shenzhen. The theme of the conference is "Innovating for the Future," aiming to build an open and shared industry platform, bringing together industry leaders and experts to discuss cooperation and development. The agenda includes keynote speeches, new product launches, as well as a series of events such as the Star Flash Summit, HarmonyOS Summit, Audio-Video Summit, Home Appliance Summit, and Channel Partner Conference.

New products will be released during the conference. According to the agenda, new products will be launched at the conference, with summits on Star Flash, HarmonyOS, Audio-Video, and Home Appliances.

Guizhou Maotai 2024 Interim Performance Conference

Guizhou Maotai announced that the company will hold the 2024 Interim Performance Conference from 15:00 to 16:30 on September 9.

The conference will be conducted through visual presentations and online text interactions, where the company will engage with investors on the production and operation performance for the first half of 2024, addressing common investor concerns within the scope of information disclosure.

On August 8, Guizhou Maotai released its 2024 interim report, achieving a total operating income of 83.451 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of 41.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.88%. Operating profit once again achieved high-quality growth, exceeding the 15% annual growth targetGame Station's Q3 Financial Report for the 2025 Fiscal Year

On Wednesday (September 11), Game Station will release its Q3 financial report for the 2025 fiscal year.

Earlier, Keith Gill, who rose to fame in 2021 by calling on short-term traders to short squeeze in the US stock market, seemed to sound the horn for another round of action after three years. This "number one bull influencer" who sparked a retail investor war on Wall Street three years ago has caused the stock price of Game Station, the core stock of the short squeeze battle three years ago, to soar for several consecutive days.

IEA Monthly Oil Market Report

On Thursday (September 12), the International Energy Agency (IEA) will release its monthly oil market report.

The report released last month indicated that if OPEC+ continues to implement its supply increase plan, the global oil market will shift from a shortage to an oversupply in the next quarter. It is expected that even if OPEC+ production cuts remain unchanged, global inventories may increase by an average of 860,000 barrels per day next year.

In terms of demand, the IEA expects demand growth in 2024 and 2025 to be slightly below 1 million barrels per day. Considering that growth may be affected by a sluggish economic environment and the shift to electric vehicles, demand is expected to average 103.06 million barrels per day in 2024.

IPO Opportunities

There are 3 new stocks being issued online in the A-share market this week (September 9th to September 13th).

A total of 13 new funds (combining Class A and Class C) are being issued this week, including 0 bond funds, 6 hybrid funds, 0 equity funds, 6 index funds, and 1 Reit.