iPhone 16 debuts in the early morning! Is Apple's new "super upgrade cycle" kicking off?

Intelligent Finance APP noticed that the well-known Wall Street investment firm Wedbush Securities recently released a research report stating that the upcoming iPhone 16 series from Apple (to be unveiled at 1 a.m. on Tuesday Beijing time) may help lead a new wave of global consumers using artificial intelligence. In addition, the firm also stated that more and more market research evidence indicates that the next generation of Apple smartphones may bring long-awaited "growth revival" and a new round of "super upgrade cycle" for Apple product fans and Apple stock fans. Wedbush maintains its "outperform" rating on Apple (AAPL.US) stock and a target price of $285.

Analyst Dan Ives wrote in an investor report: "The release of the iPhone 16 is all about Apple Intelligence." "We estimate that in the coming years, about 20% of global consumers will eventually access and use generative artificial intelligence applications through the Apple ecosystem, all starting from this week's iPhone 16."

Some of the increase in AI usage will be achieved through an increase in iPhone 16 shipments. Ives and other analysts pointed out that the initial shipment of iPhone 16 is expected to reach or exceed 90 million units, compared to the expected range of 80 to 84 million units, as about 300 million iPhones have not been upgraded for over four years.

Ives believes: "We believe that with the arrival of the AI-driven upgrade cycle, Apple's iPhone sales in the 2025 fiscal year could exceed 240 million units."

Further applications of artificial intelligence may come from developers building more generative AI applications, with Ives expecting hundreds of applications to appear in the next 6 to 12 months.

Ives explained: "We believe the demonstrations at Apple Park will be eye-opening and reflect a broader strategic vision for consumers looking to upgrade to the iPhone 16."

"In recent weeks, we have seen more signs from the entire Asian supply chain indicating that this new iPhone upgrade cycle could be a historic one, described as a super cycle. Currently, we estimate that there are approximately 300 million iPhones globally that have not been upgraded for over four years." Ives-led team added. "We believe that with the AI-driven iPhone upgrade cycle on the horizon, Apple could sell over 240 million units of new iPhones in the 2025 fiscal year."

Renowned Apple chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo recently released a production report on the iPhone 16 series. Ming-Chi Kuo pointed out that the estimated shipments of the iPhone 16 series in 2024 have been adjusted from 87-88 million to 88-89 million units, with the main increase coming from the standard version of the iPhone 16. It is also expected that the iPhone 16 standard version, iPhone 16 Plus, iPhone 16 Pro, and iPhone 16 Pro Max will account for approximately 26% of the shipments of the iPhone 16 series in 2024 6%, 30%, and 38%. This means that the iPhone 16 series is expected to grow by about 10% year-on-year in shipments in 3Q24 (YoY, VS. iPhone 15 series in 3Q23).

Apple's AI Features Highly Anticipated

Apple is set to release the highly anticipated iPhone 16 series on Monday, Eastern Time, focusing on showcasing how various features of its flagship smartphone devices are fully integrated with on-device artificial intelligence. The iPhone 16 series will be the first batch of Apple smartphones designed around these AI features, featuring Apple's most advanced A-series chips integrated with a new AI accelerator. However, these AI features will also be provided on the top versions of the previous generation devices, the iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max models.

According to reports, Apple's Intelligence features are expected to be launched in software updates for iPhone and iPad operating systems in October, while a comprehensive upgrade to Apple's voice assistant Siri is likely to be introduced early next year.

In June of this year, Apple announced a partnership with OpenAI, but current reports indicate that the integration of ChatGPT into Apple Intelligence will be delayed until later this year.

The delayed integration of ChatGPT will also have a chain reaction, as Apple's initial plans to implement a comprehensive overhaul of the voice assistant Siri based on this AI large model, including introducing more personalized and contextual chat modes, will be postponed until next year.

Additionally, Apple plans to introduce the AI image creation feature "Image Playground" and the AI custom emoji feature "Genmoji" in the iOS 18.2 update scheduled for release in December.

As of now, the initial Apple Intelligence features will be available starting from iOS 18.1. It is confirmed that iOS 18.1 will not be launched alongside the release of the iPhone, but will be made available to the public in October. The initial features to be provided include new writing tools for generating and summarizing text, suggested replies in iMessage, automatic transcription of calls, and cleaning functions in the "Photos" app.

Back on June 10th, Apple unveiled a series of artificial intelligence features at its Worldwide Developers Conference. This new artificial intelligence technology called "Apple Intelligence" includes AI-powered one-click summary notifications, automatic transcription of voice memos, and Apple's proprietary tools for generating custom emojis.

However, Apple stated at the time that these upgrades would take some time to reach all Apple consumers, and the AI features demonstrated at the time were very limited. Analysts in the supply chain expect Apple to provide detailed insights at this event on how Apple Intelligence seamlessly integrates with various iPhone software and operational details From the perspective of Apple's AI technology roadmap, under the Apple Intelligence framework, embedding large AI models such as ChatGPT on the end side can be fully integrated with Apple's Siri voice assistant. This move will allow Apple iOS system users to control all functions of a single application (App) solely through voice, and to some extent achieve comprehensive linkage and interaction among applications. Siri's positioning may no longer be a clumsy formalized voice assistant, but rather a role similar to an "all-around AI companion".

Currently, leading smartphone hardware manufacturers are developing their own large models, and are embedding offline-capable end-side AI large models into new generation models to create the so-called "AI smartphones". Compared to general AI large models that rely on cloud computing power, local large models on the end side can allow smartphone users to use products like ChatGPT more efficiently, conveniently, and securely. With the help of end-side AI, it is expected to achieve a more personalized "personal AI assistant" that better meets users' individual needs, similar to the "all-around AI companion" in the movie "HER".

Bob O'Donnell, Chief Analyst at TECHnalysis Research, said: "The current focus of the market is on which smartphone brand will be the first to truly combine personal artificial intelligence assistants with accurate, personalized professional knowledge and specific proprietary information."