U.S. stocks rebounded across the board by 1%, Apple's stock price rose after releasing new products, short-term bond yields, the U.S. dollar, and commodities all rose in unison

The data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in August shows that the one-year and five-year inflation expectations remain stable at 3% and 2.8% respectively. The three-year inflation expectation has slightly increased from 2.3% in July to 2.5%. At the same time, the Employment Trends Index for August has risen slightly from the revised 108.71 to 109.04.

The market is closely watching the U.S. presidential debate on Tuesday, as well as the release of U.S. CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday. Especially, the CPI data may have a significant impact on interest rate decisions before the FOMC meeting, as although the market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut, the specific rate cut amount is yet to be determined.

After a significant sell-off last week, the market bought U.S. stocks on dips, with all three major indices rising by over 1.1%. Except for the communication services sector, all sectors saw gains, with boosts from Boeing rising by 3.36% and Tesla rising by 2.63%, leading the industrial and non-essential consumer sectors in gains. The U.S. dollar strengthened, short-term U.S. Treasury yields fell, and later this week there will be auctions for 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bonds, with longer-term bonds expected to attract more buying interest. Oil prices rose as the market worried that tropical storms could disrupt production and refining along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

U.S. stocks rebounded by over 1%, with tech stocks performing well. NVIDIA closed up by 3.54%, Apple initially dropped by 1.8% during the event but ended up rising by 0.04%, Nio surged by nearly 11%, rising for five consecutive days to a four-month high:

• U.S. stock indices rebounded across the board: The S&P 500 index closed up 62.63 points, a gain of 1.16%, at 5471.05 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, closely related to the economic cycle, closed up 484.18 points, a gain of 1.20%, at 40829.59 points. The Nasdaq, which is mostly composed of tech stocks, closed up 193.77 points, a gain of 1.16%, at 16884.60 points. The Nasdaq 100 rose by 1.3%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 tech stocks, closed up by 1.11%. The Russell 2000 index, more sensitive to the economic cycle, closed up by 0.30%. The VIX fear index fell by 13.09% to 19.45.
• U.S. sector ETFs rose across the board. The global aviation industry ETF rose by 2.64%, the semiconductor ETF rose by 2.26%, the technology industry ETF, global tech stock index ETF, financial industry ETF, consumer discretionary ETF, biotechnology index ETF, and utilities ETF all rose by over 1%, with the banking industry ETF rising by 0.65% being the worst performer.

• All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index closed up. The S&P consumer discretionary sector rose by 1.63%, while the industrial, information technology/tech, financial, real estate sectors rose by at least 1.15%, and the energy sector rose by 0.77%. The telecom sector was the worst performer, rising by 0.04%

• On the news front, analysts at HSBC stated that due to labor market data showing that the economy is cooling rather than on the brink of recession, and with the resilience of third-quarter corporate profit prospects, they are more bullish on US stocks. However, analysts at Citigroup hold a different view, believing that the large unwinding of long positions in the S&P 500 index coupled with an increase in short positions in the Nasdaq 100 indicate a shift in risk appetite towards a more direct bearish bias. Strategists at RBC Capital Markets stated that due to seasonal factors, market sentiment, and risks brought about by the presidential election, there is further downside potential for the US stock market. If concerns about a hard landing escalate, the risk of growth fears leading to a market decline in the range of 14%-20% will certainly increase.

• " Tech Seven Sisters " with only Google Class A falling. NVIDIA closed up 3.54%, Tesla closed up 2.63%, Amazon closed up 2.34%, Microsoft closed up 1%, Meta closed up 0.9%. Apple slightly rose by 0.04%. During the day, Apple held a product launch event and introduced the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max, causing the stock price to temporarily widen its decline to 1.8%. Google Class A closed down 1.33%.

  

• Chip stocks mostly rose with few declines. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up 2.15%. The industry ETF SOXX closed up 1.98%; NVIDIA 2x Long ETF closed up 6.95%. Arm Holdings closed up 7.03%, Marvell Technology closed up 4.12%. TSMC US stock closed up 3.8%, with reports stating that Samsung is collaborating with TSMC to develop HBM4. NVIDIA closed up 3.54%, AMD closed up 2.83%, Broadcom closed up 2.79%, ON Semiconductor closed up 2.16%, Qualcomm closed up 1.63%, KLA closed up 1.01%. Intel closed up 0.95%, with reports stating that Intel will fully outsource processes below 3 nanometers to TSMC, planning a global workforce reduction of 15%. Micron Technology closed down 0.13%, ASML closed down 0.39%.

• Most AI concept stocks rose. Palantir closed up 14.08%, marking the largest single-day increase since February, after the company was included in the S&P 500 index. BigBear.ai closed up 10.85%, Dell US stock closed up 3.81%, as the company will join the S&P 500 index. SoundHound AI, an AI voice company held by NVIDIA, closed up 6.21%, AMD closed up 6.06%, Snowflake closed up 1.29%, BullFrog AI closed up 1.24%, C3.ai closed up 0.42%, CrowdStrike remained flat, while Oracle closed down 1.35%, with post-market earnings showing cloud business driving profits beyond expectations, leading to a post-market rise of over 9%

Palantir and Dell will be included in the S&P 500 index, rising together on Monday.

• Chinese concept stocks rose together. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 0.69%. In ETFs, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) rose 0.26%. The Chinese Internet Index ETF (KWEB) rose 0.36%.

• Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Nio rose by 10.96%, ZEEKR rose by 3.66%, Li Auto rose by 3.06%, Vipshop rose by 2.08%, Meituan ADR rose by 1.4%, New Oriental rose by 1.11%, Baidu rose by 0.77%, Tencent Holdings ADR rose by 0.68%, Alibaba rose by 0.32%, while NetEase fell by 0.03%, Bilibili fell by 0.07%, XPeng fell by 0.23%, Trip.com fell by 0.63%, JD.com fell by 0.69%, Pinduoduo fell by 0.9%, and Mengniu Dairy ADR fell by 0.93%.

• Other key stocks include: (1) Boeing's US stocks rose by 3.36% due to reaching a preliminary labor agreement with the union, avoiding the costly threat of a strike. (2) Eli Lilly's US stocks rose by 0.62% after appointing a new CFO. (3) HSBC's US stocks rose by 2.03% amid reports that HSBC is considering merging its commercial banking and investment banking units to reduce costs. (4) Applied Digital, a cryptocurrency stock backed by NVIDIA investment, surged over 40%.

European stock markets rebound, pan-European Stoxx 600 index ends five-day losing streak:

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose more than 1% at one point during the day, eventually closing up 0.82% at 510.70 points, with travel and leisure stocks leading the gains by rising 2.18%, and bank stocks rising by 1.17%. Among the constituents, Ocado Group's European stocks fell by 4.3% at one point, marking the largest drop in about seven weeks, and eventually closed down by 2.52% as Barclays analysts downgraded the stock from neutral to underweight.

The German stock index rose by 0.77%. The French stock index rose by 0.99%. The Italian stock index rose by 0.90%. The Spanish stock index rose by 0.89%. The UK stock index rose by 1.09%. The Dutch AEX index rose by 1.03%.

"Non-Farm Payrolls Day" sees 2-year US Treasury yield rise by over 2 basis points, while the 2/10-year US Treasury yield curve ends two consecutive days of inversion, with short-term yields moving away from an 18-month low and benchmark yields hovering around a more than one-year low:

• US Treasuries: At the close, the more interest rate-sensitive 2-year US Treasury yield rose by 2.67 basis points to 3.6729%, trading in a range of 3.6522%-3.7081% during the session The yield on the 10-year benchmark US Treasury bond fell by 0.57 basis points to 3.7023%, hitting a daily high of 3.7607% at 16:50 Beijing time before shaking lower and hitting a daily low of 3.6892% at 01:21.

• Eurozone: The 10-year German bond yield dropped by 0.4 basis points. The 2-year German bond yield fell by 1.6 basis points. The French 10-year bond yield rose by 0.3 basis points, while the Italian 10-year bond yield fell by 0.4 basis points.

Although the stock market has rebounded slightly, the bond market remained relatively calm. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield failed to rebound, gradually falling throughout the day after an initial rise in the morning session, ending the day lower.

Expectations of a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve have retreated, with the US Dollar Index rising by over 0.4%, continuing its rebound from the lows seen on the non-farm payroll day. The Japanese Yen against the US Dollar fell by over 1% to 144, halting a four-day consecutive rise from the yearly high. The offshore Chinese Yuan fell by 300 points at one point, with the market expecting the European Central Bank to cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, hitting a three-week low:

• US Dollar: The DXY, which measures the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.44% to 101.627 points, trading in a range of 101.144-101.696 points during the day, continuing its rebound from the non-farm payroll day; it had previously fallen to 100.514 points on August 27.
• The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose by 0.27% to 1235.13 points, trading in a range of 1231.06-1236.45 points during the day.
• Japanese Yen: The Japanese Yen against the US Dollar fell by 0.60% to 143.16 yen, trading in a range of 141.96-143.80 yen during the day. A former senior official from the Japanese Financial Services Agency stated that market turmoil has subsided, and the Bank of Japan may still raise rates before the end of the year.

The offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH) fell by 254 points against the US Dollar to 7.1202 yuan at the close, trading in a range of 7.0845-7.1254 yuan during the day.

Most cryptocurrencies rose. The largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, rose by 6.65% to $57,265.00 at the close, trading in a range of $54,545.00-$57,480.00 during the day. The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, rose by 8.21% to $2,352.00 at the close, trading in a range of $2,282.00-$2,364.50 during the day Due to the strengthening of Tropical Storm "Francine", some oil drilling companies have partially shut down production. U.S. oil fell to its lowest level in over a year before rebounding by over 1.5%, while Brent crude fell to its lowest level in nearly three years before rebounding by over 1.1%. European natural gas futures surged by over 111% in early European trading session:

• U.S. Oil: WTI October crude oil futures closed up $1.04, up more than 1.53%, at $68.71 per barrel. During early U.S. trading hours, U.S. oil, after initially falling by over 0.5% to below $67, rebounded and continued to rise. By midday, U.S. oil hit a daily high, rising by over 1.9% to near $69.
• Brent Crude: Brent November crude oil futures closed up $0.78, up around 1.10%, at $71.84 per barrel. During early European trading hours, Brent crude continued its earlier upward trend, reaching a high of over 1.6% above $72, before trending downwards. In early U.S. trading, it fell by nearly 0.6% to around $70.60, before rebounding and turning positive.
• Wall Street Views: Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman Sachs, stated that since early July, there has been a decrease in oil demand by 400 million barrels, equivalent to a reduction of 7 million barrels per day. Goldman Sachs predicts a 20% probability of the U.S. entering a recession in the next 12 months, therefore deeming a recession unlikely. OPEC+ is expected to increase production starting in December, with Brent crude prices expected to fluctuate between $70 and $85 per barrel.
• On the news front, Tropical Storm "Francine" moving north in the Gulf of Mexico has intensified, leading to oil drilling companies evacuating personnel and suspending some offshore crude oil production. "Francine" is expected to hit certain coastal areas of the Gulf of Mexico with strong winds and heavy rain, and is forecasted to make landfall as a full-fledged hurricane on Wednesday. Based on calculations by Bloomberg using data from the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and the National Hurricane Center, the daily production of oil fields intersecting the storm's projected path is approximately 125,000 barrels of crude oil and 300 million cubic feet of natural gas.
• Natural Gas: U.S. October natural gas futures fell by over 4.61%, at $2.17 per million British thermal units. The European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures rose by 2.50%, at 37.260 euros per megawatt-hour. ICE UK natural gas futures rose by 2.19%, at 89.750 pence per therm.

Expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week supported a slight increase in gold prices, with spot gold hovering near the $2500 mark:

• Gold: COMEX December gold futures rose by 0.43% in the closing session, at $2535.50 per ounce. Prior to the European trading session, spot gold reversed its earlier gains, falling by nearly 0.5% below $2490, before continuing to rise. After the midday U.S. trading session, gold reached a high of nearly 0.4% above $2500, closing at $2506.38 per ounce, with the price hitting a historical high of $2531.60 on August 20.
• Silver: COMEX December silver futures rose by 1.59% in the closing session, at $28.690 per ounce. After the Asian trading session, spot silver reversed its earlier gains, falling by nearly 0.8% to around $27.70, before continuing to rise. By midday U.S. trading, silver reached a high of over 1.6% above $28.30 At the close, spot silver rose by 1.47% to $28.3459 per ounce.

• The market has already accepted the higher likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, shifting focus to the CPI and PPI data to be released on Wednesday and Thursday. Analyst De Casa from Kinesis Money stated that if inflation data falls far below expectations, the expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut will significantly increase, potentially pushing gold prices to a new all-time high. Even if the market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut, gold prices are unlikely to drop significantly because the Fed is expected to cut rates.
• Most industrial metals in London rose. Dr. Copper, an economic indicator, rose by over 1.12% to $9097 per ton. Zinc in London closed up $14. Nickel closed up $10. Aluminum closed up $8. Lead closed down $10. Tin in London fell by over 0.66%.
• COMEX copper futures rose by 1.64% to $4.1405 per pound. Iron ore prices fell below $90 per ton during the session, the first time since November 2022.

Gold prices remain stable but slightly below historical highs.

Updates before 23:00 on September 9th

US stocks rebound, with the technology and communication services sectors leading the gains by over 1%:

• US major indices all rose: The S&P 500 index rose by over 1.1% at one point. The Dow, closely related to the economic cycle, rose by over 1.1% at one point. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose by nearly 1.4% at one point.

• At the beginning of the US stock market session, most sector ETFs rose, with semiconductor ETFs, technology sector ETFs, and global technology stock index ETFs leading the gains.
• "Tech Big Seven" mostly rose. NVIDIA rose by over 3.6% at one point, Tesla rose by over 4.3% at one point, Amazon rose by over 2.3% at one point, Meta rose by over 2.2% at one point, Microsoft rose by over 1.7% before halving the gains, while Google A rose by nearly 1.8% before falling by over 0.1%, and Apple fell by nearly 1.4% at one point.

• Chip stocks mostly rebounded. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by nearly 2.4%; Arm Holdings rose by over 5.2% at one point, TSMC ADR rose by over 4% at one point, Intel rose by over 3.3% at one point, Marvell Technology rose by over 3.4% at one point, ON Semiconductor rose by over 3.4% at one point, while Micron Technology fell by over 1% at one point - Most AI concept stocks rose. Palantir rose over 12% at one point, BigBear.ai rose over 6.1% at one point, SoundHound AI, an AI voice company held by NVIDIA, rose over 5.6% at one point, Dell Technologies rose over 5.5% at one point, Serve Robotics rose over 5.6% at one point, while Oracle fell over 0.4% at one point. - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index initially fell by over 0.6% before rising nearly 0.2%, now turning downward. Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Pinduoduo fell over 3.3% at one point, XPeng fell over 5.1% at one point, Bilibili fell over 2.2% at one point, while Nio rose over 5.2% at one point, ZEEKR rose over 4% at one point, Vipshop rose over 2.4% at one point, Meituan ADR rose over 1% at one point. - Other key stocks include: (1) Boeing's US stocks rose nearly 4.6% at one point due to reaching a preliminary labor agreement with its union. (2) HSBC's US stocks rose over 2.3% at one point, with news that HSBC is considering merging its commercial banking and investment banking to reduce costs.

Updates before 21:50 Beijing time

Last Friday, the non-farm payroll data came in below expectations, once again sparking concerns about a US economic recession, dragging down US stocks. Both the Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened lower, with the Nikkei 225 index falling by 3% at one point, but later narrowing the decline.

With the expectation of a significant rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in September, European and American stock markets rebounded significantly, with most tech stocks rising and Tesla up over 2%.

- US stocks opened higher, with Tesla up over 2%; - Stock indexes in various European countries such as France and the Netherlands rose by 1%, and the pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose by 0.7%. - The decline in the Japanese and South Korean stock markets narrowed, with the Nikkei 225 index closing down by 0.5%, after falling by 3% earlier. The Seoul Composite Index in South Korea closed down by 0.3%, after falling by 2% earlier. - Iron ore fell below $90 in early trading. The price of iron ore fell below $90 per ton, the first time since November 2022. - The USD/JPY exchange rate widened to 1% intraday. The US dollar index continued to rise intraday, currently up by 0.38% at 101.57.

【Update at 21:35】

US stocks opened higher, with the Nasdaq up 1.12%, the S&P 500 up 0.87%, and the Dow up 0.49%;

Apple's new product launch event is approaching, down by 0.14%;

Tesla up over 2%; NVIDIA up over 2%; Dell up by over 5%, as the company will join the S&P 500 index;

Boeing up over 2% due to reaching a preliminary labor agreement with its union; Alibaba's Hong Kong stock fell by 0.38% in early trading, and Alibaba was officially included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, effective on September 10.

HSBC Holdings rose by over 2%, with previous reports stating that HSBC is considering merging its commercial banking and investment banking units to reduce costs.

[19:35 Update]

Alibaba's pre-market trading in the US saw an increase of up to 0.5%, as the company's stock was officially included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, effective from September 10, 2024.

European stocks continued to rise, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index up by 0.7%, France's CAC 40 index up by 1%, the Netherlands' AEX index up by 1%, Italy's FTSE MIB index up by 1.18%, Germany's DAX index up by 0.8%, and the UK's FTSE 100 index up by 0.7%.

[18:35 Update]

Nasdaq futures saw an increase of over 1% at one point.

The USD/JPY exchange rate saw an increase of up to 1% intraday. The US Dollar Index saw an increase of up to 0.50% intraday, currently at 101.70.

[16:30 Update]

GBP/USD fell by 0.3% to 1.3086, the lowest since August 23. The US Dollar Index continued to rise intraday, up by 0.38% to 101.57.

[16:10 Update]

Nasdaq futures rose by 0.8% intraday, S&P 500 index futures up by 0.6%, and Dow Jones futures up by over 0.4%.

Tesla and TSMC both rose by over 2%, NVIDIA rose by 1.6%, and Apple rose by 0.68%. Boeing's pre-market trading in the US rose by 3.1% as it reached a preliminary labor agreement with the union.

Dell's pre-market stock price rose by 6% as the company is set to join the S&P 500 index.

[15:10 Update]

Major European stock indices opened slightly higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index up by 0.55%, Germany's DAX index up by 0.57%, the UK's FTSE 100 index up by 0.63%, and France's CAC 40 index up by 0.37%.

[Update as of 12:10]

As of the time of publication, the Nikkei 225 index fell by 1.84%, with Renesas Electronics and Tokyo Electron both dropping by over 6%, and Toyota Motor falling by over 4%. The South Korean KOSPI index narrowed its decline to 0.7%, while Samsung Electronics dropped by 2.3%.

The Japanese Yen to US Dollar exchange rate saw a slight increase in its decline.

[8:25 Update]

As of the time of publication, the Nikkei 225 index widened its decline to 3%. Toyota Motor and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group both dropped by over 4%. The Australian stock index S&P/ASX widened its decline to 1.2%. The MSCI Asia Pacific index widened its decline to 1%.

Due to a nearly 3% drop in the technology sector, the South Korean KOSPI index fell by over 2%, reaching its lowest level since August 5th. Samsung Electronics' stock price briefly dropped by 3.3%, hitting its lowest level since October 10th last year, while SK Hynix and LG Energy Solution also declined.

Iron ore prices fell below $90 per tonne for the first time since November 2022.

The Japanese Yen slightly declined against the US Dollar following the downward revision of Japan's second-quarter real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter final value.

According to Bloomberg, Shoji Hirakawa, Chief Global Strategist at Tokai Tokyo Research Institute, stated, "Global investors may be avoiding risks and cashing out." He believes that investors may have already decided that, given the lower-than-expected non-farm payroll report, concerns about the US economy, and the possibility of a significant rate cut cannot be ignored **