Minsheng Securities: NVIDIA's speech demonstrates confidence, and US tech stocks rebound significantly

According to the financial news app Zhitong Finance, Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that on September 11th, US technology companies saw a significant rebound in the stock market, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising by 4.90% and NVIDIA (NVDA.US) rising by 8.15%. On that day, Jensen Huang's speech at the Communacopia Tech conference demonstrated NVIDIA's strong confidence in computing power demand. The company also mentioned that the progress of the Blackwell product is smooth, and the product will be shipped in the fourth quarter. In addition, the slightly better-than-expected August US CPI data reduced the possibility of a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Minsheng Securities believes that driven by AI, data center-related industries such as PCB and copper interconnects remain the main drivers of growth.

Jensen Huang expressed confidence in his speech, and the Blackwell product will be shipped in the fourth quarter. Previously, the market was concerned about the uncertainty of the Blackwell shipment time due to adjustments in the GB200 program. However, Jensen Huang stated at the Communacopia Tech conference that the company is currently expanding Blackwell's production capacity, with products already in full production and set to be shipped in the fourth quarter. The production scale of Blackwell products will continue to expand in 4Q24 and 2025. Furthermore, in his speech, Jensen Huang also mentioned: 1) Data centers will shift from general computing to accelerated computing: as Moore's Law gradually becomes less effective and CPU processing speed begins to slow down, data centers must adopt accelerated computing to improve operational efficiency; 2) The ROI issue of computing power capital expenditure is expected to be resolved: accelerated computing can achieve processing speeds more than 20 times faster with tools like Spark, so even if the cost of GPUs doubles compared to CPUs, adopting accelerated computing can still save 10 times the cost, making the investment return on computing power significant. Jensen Huang's speech alleviated short-term concerns in the market about the pace of Blackwell product shipments and addressed the issue of investment return on computing power capital expenditure. Due to the significant efficiency improvement that accelerated computing can bring to customers, Jensen Huang stated that the current demand for computing power is very strong.

Core CPI exceeding expectations reduces market expectations for a Fed rate cut. The August CPI data released by the US on September 11th showed that the overall CPI in August increased by +2.5% year-on-year, in line with expectations, with a previous value of +2.9%; month-on-month it increased by +0.2%, in line with expectations, with a previous value of +0.2%. The core CPI increased by +3.2% year-on-year, in line with expectations, and exceeded expectations by +0.3% month-on-month. Due to the rise in housing costs, the core CPI in August in the US slightly exceeded expectations, reducing the possibility of a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. According to CME Group, the current market expects an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September, with a 15% probability of a 50 basis point cut.

Investment advice: Driven by AI, data center-related industries such as PCB and copper interconnects remain the main drivers of growth. Recommendations include: 1) PCB: PCBs have advantages such as easy installation, maintenance, and low cost, and are still one of the mainstream solutions for cabinet interconnection. Recommended stocks to watch include Shanghai Electric (002463.SZ), Sheng Hong Technology (300476.SZ), Jingwang Electronics (603228.SH) 2) Copper Interconnect: High-speed copper cables can achieve low-cost, high-speed, low-power consumption acceleration card interconnection solutions in short-distance communication scenarios. The penetration rate in AI data centers is rapidly increasing. Recommended stocks to watch: Wolong Nuclear Materials (002130.SZ), Hongteng Precision Technology (608858.SH), Jinda Corporation (600577.SH), etc.

Risk Warning: Risks include fluctuations in AI industry demand, changes in industry competition landscape, product R&D progress falling short of expectations, and macroeconomic and downstream demand recovery falling short of expectations