Former New York Fed Chair supports "50 basis points rate cut" call: Weak labor market is a major driver for the Fed to cut rates significantly
Former New York Fed President William Dudley said at the Bretton Woods Committee forum that considering the weakness in the US labor market, the Fed may cut interest rates by 50 basis points at the upcoming meeting next week. He emphasized that the risks to the employment market are greater than the challenges of inflation, and despite the recent rise in core inflation rates, he believes more aggressive rate cuts should be taken. There is a divergence in the market regarding the magnitude of the rate cut, Dudley pointed out that the Fed's decision will depend on Chairman Powell and his support
According to the financial news app Zhitong Finance, at the Bretton Woods Committee forum held in Singapore, former New York Fed President William Dudley delivered a speech. He believes that in the current economic environment, the Fed may cut interest rates by 50 basis points at next week's meeting. Dudley, the current chairman of the Bretton Woods Committee and a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, emphasized the unexpected slowdown in the U.S. labor market and the greater risks in the job market compared to inflation challenges, supporting his call for a rate cut.
Despite data at the beginning of this week showing an unexpected increase in the U.S. core inflation rate in August, strengthening the market's expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut next week, Dudley insists on more aggressive rate cut measures. He mentioned Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole last month, where Powell expressed concerns about further weakness in the labor market.
Dudley pointed out that although some Wall Street banks expected the Fed to take more aggressive rate cut measures this month, after the latest inflation data was released, Citigroup's economists adjusted their rate cut expectations to 25 basis points. Citigroup still expects the Fed to cut rates a total of 125 basis points this year.
There is a divergence among market participants and economists on the direction of U.S. monetary policy. U.S. swap data shows that the market expects a rate cut of over 100 basis points this year, reflecting concerns about the economy possibly entering a recession. Fed Governor Christopher Waller previously stated that he is open to further rate cuts and will support them when appropriate.
Dudley also mentioned that the Fed typically does not like to surprise the market, so holding a meeting in the current uncertainty is unusual. He emphasized that whether more aggressive rate cut actions will be taken will depend on Chairman Powell and how much support he can garner