With only a few days left until the Federal Reserve's decision, traders' expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut are reignited

Traders' expectations for a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve have been reignited, causing US Treasury bonds to rise and bringing a hint of new uncertainty to next week's Fed decision. After almost completely ruling out this possibility in the past few days, the market's implied probability of a 50 basis point rate cut next week has started to rise. The swap market currently expects that there is about a 30% chance that the Fed will kick off an easing cycle with a 50 basis point rate cut on September 18. The trigger for this expected change is a report from Thursday's Wall Street Journal, which stated that Fed policymakers are considering whether to cut rates by 50 basis points or 25 basis points. (Bloomberg)