Gold hits a new high, is it trading the US election cycle? Citigroup: $3000 next year is possible!

The spot gold price has hit new highs in recent days, with prices rising above $2580 per ounce in early trading on Friday, and New York gold futures breaking through $2600 per ounce, both reaching historical highs. Spot gold is expected to achieve its best performance since 2020, with a year-to-date increase of over 24%. Citibank analysts stated that driven by the loose monetary policies of major central banks and the tense situation of the U.S. presidential election, the gold price is expected to reach $3000 next year.

Analysis suggests that the surge in gold prices this year is mainly driven by increasing global central bank demand, which is particularly significant in an increasingly complex geopolitical and financial environment. A survey conducted by the World Gold Council in April 2024 found that 29% of central banks surveyed plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months.

Citibank: Gold Price Could Break $3000 by Mid-2025

Aakash Doshi, head of North American commodities research at Citibank, stated on Friday that by mid-2025, the gold price could reach $3000 per ounce, and by the end of 2024, it could reach $2600 per ounce. This growth is driven by U.S. rate cuts, strong ETF demand, and off-exchange physical demand.

Last week, the World Gold Council stated that globally, physically-backed gold ETFs saw inflows for the fourth consecutive month in August.

Peter A. Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, mentioned that if upcoming data indicates growth risks and a weak labor market, the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut in November or December will increase. This would provide greater impetus for gold and accelerate the timeline for reaching $3000.

Currently, major central banks have fully engaged in rate-cutting actions, with the European Central Bank cutting rates by 25 basis points for the second time this year on Thursday.

Australia's Macquarie Bank raised its gold price expectations this week, now forecasting an average price peak of $2600 per ounce in the first quarter of next year, with the potential for a short-term surge to $3000 per ounce.

Macquarie analysts stated, "While the structural positives for gold remain due to challenging fiscal prospects in developed markets, many positive factors are already priced into the market, and there may be cyclical resistance later next year."

U.S. Election Approaching: Investors May Turn to Gold for Safe Haven

Some analysts believe that the upcoming U.S. presidential election could drive gold prices higher, as potential market volatility may lead investors to seek refuge in gold.

Daniel Pavilonis, Senior Market Strategist at RJO Futures, stated that the target of $3000 per ounce for gold is possible, adding that this scenario may be driven by post-election political turmoil Data shows that, starting from the inauguration of the new president, the price of gold has soared during the recent few terms of U.S. presidents.

Historically, gold has always been seen as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical uncertainties and economic instabilities. Although the price of gold rose by over 50% during President Trump's term and another 37% during President Biden's term, the increase in these two terms is still lower than during the era of President George W. Bush. From 2001 to 2009, the price of gold rose by 215%, marking the largest increase during a U.S. president's term since 1989.

During President George W. Bush's term, the price of gold experienced a bull market due to the 9/11 attacks and subsequent geopolitical instabilities. Analysts believe that if the global financial crisis of 2008 had not occurred, this bull market could have been even more significant. However, in 2008, due to fears of deflation and capital flowing into the U.S. dollar as a safe haven, the price of gold plummeted by 30% from its peak to its trough.

Therefore, events like the 9/11 attacks, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have all led to significant increases in the price of gold, as investors seek stability during turbulent times