FXStreet: What changes will there be in the September Fed Dot Plot?

JIN10
2024.09.18 13:25
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The September Federal Reserve dot plot forecast shows that several banks expect to cut interest rates three times in 2024, each time by 25 basis points, totaling a 75 basis point cut. Danske Bank and Barclays Bank also predict further rate cuts in 2025, with 6 times and 125 basis points respectively. Overall, the main reasons for the rate cuts are the decline in inflation forecasts and the rise in unemployment rates

[Jinshi Compilation: What changes will be seen in the September FOMC Dot Plot?]

  1. Bank of Canada: The dot plot indicates that in 2024, there will be a total of 3 interest rate cuts, each by 25 basis points, with a cumulative decrease of 75 basis points, higher than the median expectation of 25 basis points shown in the previous dot plot.

  2. Danske Bank: The dot plot indicates that in 2024, there will be a total of 3 interest rate cuts, each by 25 basis points, in 2025 there will be 6 interest rate cuts, each by 25 basis points, and in 2026 there will be no interest rate cuts, with the final rate at 3.00-3.25%.

  3. Barclays Bank: The dot plot indicates that in 2024, there will be a total of 3 interest rate cuts, with a cumulative decrease of 75 basis points, in 2025 there will be a decrease of 125 basis points, reflecting a decline in inflation forecasts in the next two years and a significant increase in unemployment rate forecasts this year.

  4. Nordea Bank: The dot plot indicates that in 2024, there will be a total of 3 interest rate cuts, each by 25 basis points, with a cumulative decrease of 75 basis points, followed by another 100 basis points cut next year, totaling a decrease of 175 basis points.

  5. Bank of Montreal: The dot plot indicates that in 2024, there will be a total of 3 interest rate cuts, with a decrease of 125 basis points next year, and the long-term or "neutral" level may be raised. Some participants expect a rate cut of at least 100 basis points this year.

  6. Economist Gregory Daco from Ernst & Young: The dot plot indicates that in 2024, there will be a total of 3 interest rate cuts, each by 25 basis points, with a cumulative decrease of 75 basis points, and an expected decrease of 100 basis points in 2025