The full text is here! Powell's press conference was quite hawkish, causing a major asset reversal. What did he say exactly? (Chinese-English comparison)

On Wednesday, September 18th, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conference sent a hawkish signal. The US stock market initially continued to rise during his speech, but then turned downward as signs of trouble emerged, returning to the lows before noon. The bond market, gold, and foreign exchange markets also experienced a 180-degree reversal.

This was mainly because Powell stated that the Fed is only "moderately adjusting its policy stance" without a predetermined policy path. The Fed will continue to make decisions based on economic data at each meeting, and the pace of future rate cuts could be fast, slow, or even paused.

For example, he mentioned several policy combinations: if the economy remains robust and inflation persists, the Fed will slow down rate cuts; however, if the labor market unexpectedly weakens or inflation declines faster than expected, they are prepared to aggressively cut rates in response.

Overall, Powell intends to dispel market expectations of "a significant 50 basis point rate cut becoming the new norm."

The following is the full text of his prepared remarks before answering questions from the media (Chinese-English translation):

Good afternoon, my colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people.

下午好，我和我的同事们仍然专注于实现美联储的双重目标，即最大化就业和稳定物价，以造福美国人民。

Our economy is strong overall and has made significant progress toward our goals. Over the past two years, the labor market has cooled from its formerly overheated state. Inflation has eased substantially from a peak of 7% to an estimated 2.2% as of August, we're committed to maintaining our economy's strength by supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to our 2% goal.

美国经济总体强劲，并已朝着我们的目标取得了重大进展。在过去两年中，劳动力市场已从之前的过热状态降温。截至 8 月，通货膨胀率已从 7% 的峰值大幅下降至 8 月份估计的 2.2%。美联储致力于通过支持最大化就业和将通胀率恢复到 2% 的目标来保持经济强劲 Today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to reduce the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by a half percentage point. This decision reflects our growing confidence that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the labor market can be maintained in a context of moderate growth and inflation moving sustainably down to 2%. We also decided to continue to reduce our securities holdings. I will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments.

今天，联邦公开市场委员会决定降低政策约束程度，将政策利率下调 50 个基点。这一决定反映出我们越来越有信心，只要适当校准我们的政策立场，劳动力市场的强劲势头就能在温和经济增长和通胀持续下降至 2% 的背景下保持下去。我们还决定继续缩表。在简要回顾经济发展情况后，我将就货币政策发表更多看法。

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.2% in the first half of the year, and available data point to a roughly similar pace of growth this quarter. Growth of consumer spending has remained resilient, and investment in equipment and intangibles has picked up from its anemic pace last yearIn the housing sector, investment fell back in the second quarter after rising strongly in the first. Improving supply conditions have supported resilient demand in the strong performance of the US economy over the past year. In our summary of economic projections, Committee participants generally expect GDP growth to remain solid, with a median projection of 2% over the next few years.

Recent indicators show that economic activity in the United States continues to grow steadily. In the first half of this year, GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.2%, and current data indicates a similar growth rate in the third quarter. Consumer spending growth remains resilient, and investment in equipment and intangible assets has rebounded from last year's sluggish pace. In the labor market, conditions have continued to cool. Payroll job gains averaged 116,000 per month over the past three months, a notable step down from the pace seen earlier in the year. The unemployment rate has moved up, but remains low at 4.2%. Nominal wage growth has eased over the past year, and the jobs to workers gap has narrowed overall. A broad set of indicators suggest that conditions in the labor market are now less tight than just before the pandemic in 2019The labor market is not a source of elevated inflationary pressures. The median projection for the unemployment rate in the SEP is 4.4% at the end of this year, four tenths higher than projected in June.

劳动力市场情况持续降温。过去三个月，非农就业岗位平均每月增加 11.6 万个，与今年早些时候的速度相比明显放缓。失业率有所上升，但仍保持在 4.2% 的低位。名义工资增长在过去一年有所放缓，职位空缺与求职人数之间的差距总体上有所缩小。一系列指标表明，劳动力市场的紧张状况目前比 2019 年疫情爆发前有所缓解。劳动力市场并不是通胀压力高企的根源了。美联储经济预测中对今年年底的失业率中值预测为 4.4%，比 6 月份的预测高出 0.4 个百分点。

Inflation has eased notably over the past two years, but remains above our longer run goal of 2%. Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.2% over the 12 months, ending in August, and that excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.7%. Longer term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets. The median projection in the SEP for total PCE inflation is 2.3% this year and 2.1% next year, somewhat lower than projected in JuneThereafter. The median projection is 2%.

In the past two years, the inflation rate has significantly decreased but still remains above our long-term target of 2%. Based on estimates from the Consumer Price Index and other data, nominal PCE prices are expected to rise by 2.2% in the 12 months ending in August, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, while core PCE prices are expected to rise by 2.7%. Long-term inflation expectations appear to be well anchored, as reflected in extensive surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as indicators in financial markets. The median forecast in the Federal Reserve's economic projections for total PCE inflation rate this year is 2.3%, and 2.1% next year, slightly lower than the June forecast. The median forecast for 2026 and beyond is 2%.

Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. For much of the past three years, inflation ran well above our 2% goal, and labor market conditions were extremely tightAt today's meeting, the committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by a half percentage point to four and three quarters percent to 5%. This recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor marketand will continue to enable further progress on inflation as we begin the process of moving toward a more neutral stance.

At today's meeting, the committee decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 50 basis points to 4.75% to 5%. This recalibration of the policy stance will help maintain a strong economy and labor market, and will continue to drive inflation further down as we transition towards a more neutral stance.

We are not on any preset course. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting. We know that reducing policy restraint too quickly could hinder progress on inflation. At the same time, reducing restraint too slowly could unduly weaken economic activity and employment. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks.

In our September FOMC meeting, participants recorded their individual assessments of an appropriate path for the federal funds rate based on what each participant judges to be the most likely scenario going forward, if the economy evolves as expectedThe median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.4% at the end of this year and 3.4% at the end of 2025. These median projections are lower than in June, consistent with the projections for lower inflation and higher unemployment as well as the changed balance of risks.

At our FOMC meeting in September, officials wrote down their assessments of the appropriate path for the federal funds rate based on their judgments of the most likely future scenarios, assuming the economy evolves as expected. The median projection is for the federal funds rate to be at 4.4% by the end of this year and 3.4% by the end of 2025. These median projections are lower than those in June, aligning with forecasts of declining inflation, rising unemployment, and changes in the balance of risks.

However, these projections are not a committee plan or decision. As the economy evolves, monetary policy will adjust to best promote our maximum employment and price stability goals. If the economy remains strong and inflation persists, we can ease policy restraint more gradually. If the labor market unexpectedly weakens or inflation falls faster than expected, we are prepared to respondPolicy is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate. The Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary policy, maximum employment and stable prices. We remain committed to supporting maximum employment, bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal, and keeping longer term inflation expectations well anchored. Our success in delivering on these goals matters to all Americans. We understand that our actions affect communities, families and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals.

政策已准备好应对我们在履行双重使命时面临的风险和不确定性。美联储被赋予了两个货币政策目标：最大化就业和稳定物价。我们仍致力于支持充分就业，将通胀率降至 2% 的目标，并保持长期通胀预期良好锚定。我们能否成功实现这些目标对所有美国人来说都至关重要。我们明白，我们的行动会影响全美的社区、家庭和企业。我们所做的一切都是为了履行我们的公共使命。美联储将竭尽全力实现最大化就业和物价稳定的目标