Tesla's Robotaxi is about to debut, marking the beginning of a new "primary uptrend" in the market

Zhitong
2024.09.19 01:38
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Tesla is about to hold a Robotaxi unveiling ceremony in Los Angeles, which has investors and Wall Street analysts excited. The Morgan Stanley analysis team believes that this event may drive Tesla's stock price rebound and expects to showcase new autonomous driving taxis and other innovations. Analysts point out that Tesla needs to address key issues such as safety, technology, and market potential to meet investors' high expectations

According to the financial news app Zhitong Finance, Tesla (TSLA.US), the global leader in electric vehicles led by Elon Musk, is only about three weeks away from the "Tesla Robotaxi Unveiling Ceremony" to be held in Los Angeles. Investors and Wall Street analysts are eagerly anticipating this Tesla event, with some short sellers turning bullish on the potential of Robotaxi. They are hoping that this high-profile unveiling ceremony will drive Tesla's stock price to rebound significantly and are very much looking forward to ultimately achieving a new "bull market" trend.

Morgan Stanley, known as the "super bull of Tesla" on Wall Street, is clearly looking forward to the new things and ideas that Tesla plans to bring to this event. Tesla's "helmsman" - CEO Elon Musk has repeatedly stated that this Tesla Robotaxi unveiling event will not only showcase a brand-new physical autonomous taxi, but also "some other novel things."

As for what these other things might be, followers have no clue, but some believe that Tesla's recent patents related to wireless charging may be relevant.

In a research report to investors this week, Morgan Stanley stated that their analysis team believes that this event may not only unveil the rumored "Cybercab" autonomous taxi and how to ride in it.

"To be frank, it's hard for us to see how this day on October 10th when Tesla will hold the Robotaxi autonomous taxi unveiling event will meet the high expectations of investors. Besides showcasing FSD v12.5 and offering test drives of the first generation 'Cybertcab,' what other major content is there?"

"This makes investors realize that Tesla will need to bring other important information to this event, which will undoubtedly address the questions raised by shareholders and others." Therefore, the analysis team from Morgan Stanley stated that Tesla may need to address the following three important questions:

Safety - "Will investors see data comparing the safety of Tesla's exclusive autonomous driving technology with human driving?"

Significant Improvements - "Can investors better understand the performance change rate of recent FSD iterations?"

Methodology - "What key enabling technologies will investors understand to further improve the autonomy and overall capabilities of FSD/Cybercab?"

This research report from Morgan Stanley also delves into the synergistic development role between Tesla and other tech companies under CEO Elon Musk, especially the globally important startup company in the AI field known as xAI.

xAI may prove to be a significant driving force for the advancement of Tesla's autonomous driving story, especially considering xAI's exclusive AI large model and infrastructure system supporting the ambitious AI supercomputing goals of this electric vehicle manufacturer, which will further support Tesla's autonomy. Ultimately, from an investor's perspective, the unveiling event on October 10 has incredibly high expectations. Musk has acknowledged that this will be the "most important moment" for Tesla since the launch of the Model 3 several years ago.

Of course, Tesla's development roadmap for autonomous driving may be more profound than the event itself, as Tesla still needs to fully address the issues related to autonomous driving, which may be a process lasting for many years. Tesla's management, including Musk, has long been ambitious in predicting when the full self-driving suite issues can be resolved, but some investors are still concerned that it may ultimately fail. Therefore, Tesla must make significant progress in FSD to truly convince all investors.

As Musk expressed on social media X (formerly known as Twitter) at the time, he believes that Robotaxi based on full self-driving and "Optimus humanoid robot" will be Tesla's future. He posted on X platform in July, stating: Once Tesla fully solves the autonomous driving problem and achieves mass production of the Optimus humanoid robot, anyone still holding a short interest in Tesla will be "eliminated," even Bill Gates will not be an exception. Musk even shouted out seemingly crazy market value expectations at a Tesla shareholder meeting before, predicting that with the combined boost of autonomous driving technology and the Optimus humanoid robot, Tesla's market value will exceed $30 trillion.

Wall Street's bullish sentiment towards Tesla is heating up, mainly driven by Robotaxi revenue potential

If Tesla can prove that they are pushing the Tesla full self-driving system according to plan or accelerating it, i.e., the Tesla FSD system based on massive AI training/inference computing resources, and when Robotaxi will generate revenue for Tesla when fully launched into the market, then this Robotaxi unveiling event could indeed be a real breakthrough.

The long-awaited Tesla autonomous robot taxi (Robotaxi) will be based on the upgraded latest FSD full self-driving technology. Tesla envisions these autonomous vehicles being able to handle various complex transportation tasks without human driver intervention, including large-scale passenger transport, and these vehicles will be integrated into Tesla's broader AI and electric vehicle strategy. However, global deployment still requires comprehensive approval from regulatory authorities.

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang recently praised Tesla's FSD built on AI supercomputing without reservation in a media interview. Tesla's FSD is based on the Dojo supercomputer chip and NVIDIA's high-performance AI GPUs (mainly H100 and H200, Musk stated that they will purchase Blackwell architecture AI GPUs in the future), relying on these powerful hardware systems to support Tesla's massive training/inference computing power needs for FSD. Huang and other tech giants have publicly stated that Tesla's FSD is currently the most advanced driver assistance system, which can fully achieve autonomous driving in most cases, completely freeing human hands "Tesla leads the world in autonomous driving cars," Jensen Huang said in a recent media interview. "The truly revolutionary aspect of Tesla's 12th version of fully autonomous driving cars is that it is an end-to-end generative model." "It learns how to drive autonomously end-to-end by watching videos - surround videos - and uses generative AI technology to predict paths, as well as how to understand and drive cars. Therefore, this technology is truly revolutionary, and the work Tesla has done is incredible."

On Wall Street, analysts' bullish sentiment towards Tesla's stock price noticeably increased before the unveiling event on October 10th. "It is worth noting that Deutsche Bank, which has long been bearish on Tesla's stock price trend, recently released a rare research report on Tesla, resuming its 'buy' rating on Tesla (TSLA.US) and listing it as the preferred stock in the automotive industry," compared to the bank's long-standing 'neutral' and 'sell' ratings on Tesla. Deutsche Bank also announced the resumption of target price tracking for Tesla, giving Tesla a target price of up to $295 within 12 months, compared to Tesla's closing price of $227.20 on Wednesday.

Deutsche Bank stated that it views Tesla as a technology platform trying to reshape multiple industries. Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu stated that due to the potential of autonomous driving and humanoid robot businesses, the stock deserves a unique premium. "In the short term, car delivery volume/profit margins have indeed declined, but we believe this is temporary as new models/upgraded products are about to be launched. From a long-term perspective, Tesla is the emerging leader in autonomous driving (Robotaxi) and humanoid robot Optimus... They represent some of the clearest and most profitable applications of end-to-end AI."

Morgan Stanley, a Wall Street giant known as the "Tesla super bull," is optimistic about Tesla for similar reasons, including the revenue potential of Tesla's Robotaxi and the substantial subscription income that FSD may bring. "Morgan Stanley recently reiterated its 'overweight' rating on Tesla, with a target price of up to $310 within 12 months, ranking as the highest target price on Wall Street."

Cathie Wood, known as the "number one fan of Tesla" and a staunch supporter of Elon Musk, believes that Tesla's market value could exceed $8 trillion. Ark Investment Management, founded and led by Cathie Wood, recently updated its target price for Tesla, with Ark expecting Tesla's stock price to reach $2600 by 2029. "Ark's strong bullish logic on Tesla's stock price is mainly based on the expectation that by 2029, nearly 90% of Tesla's market value and profits will be attributed to the Robotaxi unmanned taxi network built on an incredibly powerful AI supercomputing system."