After the resolution, the two heavyweight voters spoke out, Goldman Sachs: implying that the Fed may slow down the pace of rate cuts, hard to say in November

The Federal Reserve's decision is still uncertain, with the outlook for the November interest rate meeting being unclear. The statements of two voting members have attracted market attention.

After the Federal Reserve cut rates more than expected this week, two FOMC voters, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, made important speeches on the future monetary policy path, suggesting that the pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may be adjusted.

Goldman Sachs stated in its latest research report that the current market expectation is for rate cuts of 25 basis points in November and December, but there is still significant uncertainty about whether a 50 basis point rate cut will be chosen in November.

The speeches of Federal Reserve officials once again emphasized the importance of being "data-dependent," with the market closely watching future inflation and employment data, which will provide crucial guidance for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision.

Waller: Future Rate Decisions Will Highly Depend on Data Performance

According to a research report released by Goldman Sachs on the 20th, Waller stated in an interview with CNBC that there are "several scenarios" that could affect the pace of future rate cuts, and future Federal Reserve rate decisions in the coming months will be highly dependent on the performance of economic data.

Waller stated that if the economy develops roughly as expected, there may be 25 basis point rate cuts at the January and December meetings. However, if labor market data deteriorates or inflation slows more than expected, the Federal Reserve may consider accelerating the pace of rate cuts, possibly even cutting rates by 50 basis points. Conversely, if inflation rebounds, the FOMC may pause rate cuts.

He also mentioned that the latest inflation data is "weaker than expected," but the upside risks to inflation still exist. Waller pointed out that the August CP, PPI reports, and the impact of these data on PCE inflation were key reasons for him to support a 50 basis point rate cut rather than 25 basis points at the September meeting.

He also noted that the annualized core PCE inflation rate for the past four months has been below the Federal Reserve's 2% target. However, there has been a reversal in inflation progress earlier in the year, and the risk of another reversal in the future cannot be ignored.

Bowman: Premature Victory Declaration; Goldman Sachs: Significant Uncertainty for November Rate Cut

In contrast to Waller, Bowman opposed a 50 basis point rate cut at the September meeting. She believed that a 25 basis point rate cut was more prudent, describing the current economic situation as "strong" and pointing out that the labor market is "close to full employment," while also emphasizing that the inflation rate remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Bowman stated that it is important to avoid signaling to the market prematurely that the Federal Reserve has "conquered inflation" and to prevent further stimulating demand. Choosing a 25 basis point rate cut can avoid the risk of "overstimulating demand."

In her statement, she said, "I believe that gradually adjusting monetary policy to a neutral stance in a moderate manner can ensure that the inflation rate further returns to the 2% target level."

Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the current market expectation is for rate cuts of 25 basis points in November and December, but there is still significant uncertainty about whether a 50 basis point rate cut will be chosen in November