iPhone 16 global sales: No super cycle, but don't overreact either?

After a seven-day pre-sale period, the Apple iPhone 16 series was officially launched globally on September 20th Beijing time. However, the market response in the terminal market has disappointed Wall Street.

According to a report released by "Apple's Most Knowledgeable" analyst and Tianfeng International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo on Monday, the estimated pre-order sales of the iPhone 16 series in the first weekend is about 37 million units, a decrease of approximately 12.7% compared to last year's iPhone 15 series first weekend sales, mainly due to lower-than-expected sales of the 16 Pro. Barclays, JP Morgan, and Bank of America also pointed out that shipping times may indicate a decrease in demand for the iPhone Pro models compared to last year.

After the release of Ming-Chi Kuo's report, Apple's stock price fell on Monday, despite a temporary boost from the significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve, continuing its decline on Friday.

At the same time, Apple stores welcomed customers from around the world on Friday. CNBC reporter Steve Kovach interviewed Apple CEO Tim Cook outside the Apple Fifth Avenue store in New York and asked whether this year's sales were better than last year. Cook responded:

"I don't know yet. It's only the first hour, so we'll see."

Regarding the market response, UBS believes that investors should not be overly pessimistic about sales data below expectations, as this data is based on analyzing the waiting time for the iPhone 16, with part of the reason for longer waiting times last year being supply chain disruptions.

On Friday, UBS wrote in a report:

"Before the release of the iPhone 16 series, we believed that the series lacked killer applications and embedded Apple smart features that were only semi-finished, which could suppress terminal demand.

While we still believe that the features of the iPhone and iOS system are more evolutionary rather than revolutionary, we caution investors not to overreact to data reflecting initial soft demand."

UBS stated that last year's supply chain disruptions slightly distorted sales data, leading to longer waiting times for the Pro models. It is reported that the waiting time for the iPhone 15 Pro Max last year was 41 days, while this year's iPhone 16 Pro Max has a waiting time of 26 days.

"Nevertheless, data from approximately one week after the release for all models and regions broadly supports our view that the super cycle will not arrive immediately, as sales in major markets such as the United States are disappointing compared to last year."