Breakfast | The Fifth Meeting of the China-US Economic Working Group, HKEX's Bad Weather Trading to Take Effect Soon

Key Focus This Week:

China's September MLF continuation, US August PCE price index, speeches by several senior officials of the Federal Reserve including Powell.

In addition, the US will release the final annualized quarter-on-quarter values of GDP and PCE price index for the second quarter, August durable goods orders, initial PMI values for September from various countries, and the official start of the Japanese leadership election.

Market Overview

Last Friday, on the "Triple Witching Day," the US stock market's momentum waned, with the S&P and Nasdaq falling back. Intel surged more than 10% intraday, supporting the Dow to hit a new high again, while small-cap indices fell over 1%, underperforming the broader market and ending a seven-day winning streak. Apple rose 1.8% before sharply reversing in the final moments; FedEx plummeted 15% after a disappointing earnings report; Meta hit new all-time highs continuously, rising 7% for the week, while Nvidia fell over 1% and dropped over 2% for the week; poor results from a weight-loss oral drug trial led to a 5.5% drop in Novo Nordisk's US stocks, falling nearly 7% for the week; Chinese concept stocks rose nearly 4% for the week.

Fifth Meeting of the China-US Economic Working Group

He Lifeng met with the US delegation of the China-US Economic Working Group after the meeting. The meeting was held in Beijing, co-chaired by Vice Minister of Finance Liao Min and US Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo, with relevant departments from both countries in attendance for exchanges. China expressed serious concerns about US tariffs on China, investment restrictions on China, sanctions related to Russia, and actions affecting the interests of Chinese companies. Both sides agreed to continue communication.

"Historic Change": HKEX's Adverse Weather Trading Arrangement to Take Effect Soon

On September 23, HKEX will officially implement arrangements to maintain market operations during adverse weather conditions. The HKEX website updated information on trading arrangements during adverse weather, stating that "if the Hong Kong Observatory hoists the typhoon signal No. 8 or above, issues a black rainstorm warning, or when the Hong Kong government announces an 'extreme situation,' trading services and operations for all products in the securities market and derivatives market will continue. If such adverse weather occurs on Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect trading days, trading on the Stock Connect will also continue."

Chen Li: Hong Kong Market Steps Out of Bottom Earlier; Zhang Yidong: Rise of Local Stocks in Hong Kong

• Chen Li and others from Soochow Securities stated that some local family funds in Hong Kong seem to be flowing back into Hong Kong. They noted that some traditional local Hong Kong stocks, including CK Hutchison, CLP Holdings, China Resources Power, Henderson Land Development, have made significant contributions to the bottoming process in the Hong Kong index series. Stock prices and trading volumes have both shown significant increases.
• Industrial Securities believes that in recent years, the dividend payout ratio and dividend per share of local Hong Kong stocks have remained relatively stable. With the US starting a new round of interest rate cuts, it is favorable for the revaluation of high-quality dividend assets in Hong Kong. High-quality high-dividend assets in local Hong Kong stocks are worth long-term allocation.

Record €2.4 Billion Fine Not Enough, EU May Sue Google for Search Monopoly Again

• Media reports suggest that the EU may announce preliminary investigation results by the end of October. If the EU's concerns are not alleviated and if Google does not highlight competitors' products more prominently in its search services, Google could face fines of up to 10% of its global annual revenue and be ordered to change its business model
• Morgan Stanley believes that the market is unfriendly, and Google's management has a responsibility. Google should increase the disclosure of generative AI; provide specific guidance on AI capital expenditures and free cash flow, and revise quarterly guidance upwards; disclose more comprehensive business segments of YouTube and GCP; emphasize Google's positive impact on society. These measures can help Google enhance investor confidence and increase valuation multiples.

Buffett sells more Bank of America shares

Having recovered all investment costs, the remaining $34 billion in Bank of America shares are all profits. Buffett sold nearly $900 million worth of Bank of America shares again this week, adding to the proceeds from previous stock sales and dividend income since 2011, exceeding his total investment costs. The market generally believes that Buffett's continued reduction of holdings is to prepare for "hard times" in the future and leave enough ammunition.

iPhone 16 global launch: No super cycle, but don't overreact either

According to Ming-Chi Kuo's report last Monday, pre-orders for the iPhone 16 series over the weekend were 12.7% lower than the 15 series. UBS pointed out that these data were obtained by analyzing the waiting time for the iPhone 16, with part of the reason for longer waiting times last year being supply chain disruptions.

Qualcomm considers acquiring Intel within two weeks

• Media reports on Friday stated that Qualcomm has recently been in talks with Intel about an acquisition, and to reach a deal, Qualcomm may intend to sell Intel assets to third parties. Two weeks ago, media reports indicated that Qualcomm is considering acquiring Intel's chip design business.
• The chip industry is facing a major transformation, is the final showdown between "Arm vs X86" coming? If Qualcomm acquires Intel, the balance of power in the PC chip market will undergo a significant change, making innovation focused on artificial intelligence more competitive