CSC: During this rate cut by the Federal Reserve, early signs of economic recession have emerged, which may not bode well for mid-term US stocks. It is recommended to reduce holdings at high levels

智通財經
2024.09.24 23:47
中信建投表示，美國 8 月經濟繼續放緩，製造業景氣度低位徘徊，非農弱於預期，失業率回落，薪資增速回升，CPI 低於預期但核心 CPI 環比超預期回升。前期快速加息對經濟的負面衝擊仍將繼續。短期，美國 8 月財政赤字高達 3800 億美元，這比美國曆史上曾經最高的 8 月赤字 2200 億高出了 70%，這將對美國三季度 GDP 下滑趨勢有顯著對沖，美股短期受到提振。中期來看，歷史上降息對美股的影響主要取決於是 “預防式” 還是 “衰退式”，2019 年 “預防式” 降息後，美股上漲，但當時失業率並未明顯抬升，美國經濟只是在過熱狀態放緩。而反觀當下，美國失業率從 3.4% 上升至 4.3%，並在 7 月觸發薩姆法則，也就是本次降息時，經濟已經出現衰退早期特徵，對中期美股並非利好，建議高位減配。
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