Robotaxi on the horizon + optimistic Q3 delivery expectations, is Tesla's "bull run" coming again?

According to the financial news app Zhitong Finance, Tesla's highly anticipated Robotaxi will make its debut in early October, along with the eagerly awaited third-quarter sales data. The stock price has been steadily rising, with a 5% increase on Monday followed by nearly 2% on Tuesday. In addition, institutions have recently expressed optimism in bullish reports on Q3 delivery data in the Chinese market, expecting to achieve the best quarterly performance in China's history.

Tesla's stock recently experienced its second major turning point in 2024, with Monday's gains keeping its performance relatively stable for the year. Analysts believe that Tesla's Robotaxi may drive this upward trend.

After several delays, Tesla will finally launch its Robotaxi on October 10th. Also in early October, the company will announce its third-quarter delivery volume. Wall Street analysts predict a 6% increase in electric vehicle sales this year to around 460,000 units.

Barclays analyst Daniel Levy stated in a bullish report to investors on Monday that Tesla's delivery volume is expected to exceed market expectations, with an estimated delivery of around 470,000 electric vehicles, an 8% increase year-on-year. He noted that although the company's performance lags behind Chinese competitor BYD, its sales in China are expected to rise.

"Given the positive data points reported so far this quarter, especially in China, we believe Tesla's sales trajectory is well understood, and investors are anticipating stronger results," Levy wrote on Monday.

Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter also expressed a positive view, stating that Tesla is expected to achieve its best quarterly performance in the Chinese market. The analyst raised Tesla's target price and expected delivery volume, currently estimating a third-quarter delivery volume of 459,000 units and an annual delivery volume of around 1.75 million units. Additionally, Potter mentioned that while sales in Europe are weak, Cybertruck deliveries are supporting demand in the United States.

In another interview on Tuesday, Levy stated that he expects Tesla's profit margin to slightly improve in the upcoming quarterly earnings report. However, Levy still maintains a neutral rating on Tesla's stock, noting that the team is "managing our expectations" in light of rising tariffs affecting the electric vehicle market.

Over the past year, Tesla has faced a series of notable challenges, from major safety issues and large-scale recalls to factory closures, layoffs, and intensified competition in the Chinese market. Three Tesla executives resigned this spring. However, following a dismal first-quarter earnings report, Tesla performed better than expected in the following period due to pricing factors. The total vehicle sales in the second quarter approached 440,000 units, easily surpassing analyst expectations.

Tesla tends to bet and succeed in markets where other companies face obstacles. Just as Musk's views on space travel and brain chips, her commitment to the world of autonomous driving cars seems distant. Other attempts to introduce autonomous taxis into urban traffic are currently chaotic, and some are even disastrous This spring, Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet, was under federal investigation for accidents and traffic violations. In June, the company recalled nearly 700 self-driving cars. However, Waymo is making a comeback by expanding its partnership with Uber (UBER.US) and bringing Waymo taxis to more cities.

Cruise, a subsidiary of General Motors (GM.US), is also hitting the road again. Last year, a Cruise self-driving taxi hit a pedestrian and dragged them 20 feet, leading to a suspension of operations. The comeback will now include human drivers.

Elon Musk, in an article at the end of March, praised Tesla's "Full Self-Driving" (FSD) mode, stating, "Most people still don't know how good Tesla FSD will be." He said, "It will reach a superhuman level, to the point where even driving a car manually in the future will seem strange when tired or drunk!"

After multiple delays, Tesla's Robotaxi Day on October 10th may showcase whether Tesla has the capability to shift public opinion towards the future envisioned by Musk. Levy stated on Tuesday, "There is still a long way to go to truly monetize the value of FSD."