Tesla's crucial October is coming, the market can't wait anymore

In October, Tesla will face three major events: third-quarter delivery data, the official debut of Robotaxi, and third-quarter financial report.

Facing the catalyst-intensive October, the market has already begun to heavily bet, with options trading very active. Currently, in all options trading on the S&P, Tesla's trading volume accounts for 17%, surpassing Nvidia.

Goldman Sachs automotive analyst Mark Delaney predicts that driven by a strong performance in the Chinese market, Tesla is expected to report a 4% sequential revenue growth and a 6% year-on-year growth in the third quarter, in line with market expectations.

For most of this year, Tesla's stock price has fluctuated significantly, rising only 3% so far. However, since early August, as investors have become more confident in the economy and the Fed's plan to cut interest rates, the company's stock price has rebounded significantly, rising more than 20% in the past month.

Third-quarter deliveries may increase by 6% year-on-year to 462,000 vehicles

Based on the previous disclosure timing of third-quarter delivery data, Tesla is expected to announce its delivery data on October 2.

Data from FactSet shows that analysts unanimously expect Tesla's global third-quarter delivery volume to total 462,000 vehicles, a 6% increase from the same period last year. Analysts also predict that by the fourth quarter, Tesla's delivery volume will reach a record level, on par with the same period last year.

The data released last quarter showed that Tesla delivered a total of 444,000 new cars in Q2, exceeding the market's expected 439,000 vehicles. Some analysts pointed out that the strong delivery data in the second quarter mainly came from better-than-expected sales in China and the United States.

Sales in the Chinese market are expected to remain strong this quarter, possibly achieving the highest quarterly delivery data ever. Although there is still a week left until the end of the third quarter, Tesla's registration volume in China has increased by more than 20% compared to the previous quarter and by over 18% compared to the same period last year.

Troy Teslike, a well-known Twitter user who focuses on tracking Tesla's delivery and other data analysis, stated that as of September 11, Tesla's vehicle deliveries in Europe have declined by over 16% since the beginning of the year.

Barclays' long-time Tesla tracker Dan Levy expects Tesla to deliver 470,000 vehicles in the third quarter, stating:

"For Tesla, the strong performance in the Chinese market comes at just the right time, helping to offset the continued weakness in the United States and Europe."

Robotaxi Official Launch, Will New Models Debut Simultaneously?

On Wednesday, the 26th local time, Tesla announced on Twitter that it plans to showcase its highly anticipated Robotaxi "Cybercab" and Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology at an event at Warner Bros. Studios on October 10 On August 8th, Robotaxi's event was originally scheduled to take place, but it was postponed due to CEO Musk's request to change the vehicle design.

Wall Street generally believes that Tesla's future growth will mainly come from the execution of AI projects, especially Robotaxi and humanoid robot Optimus. This is also the reason why Tesla's stock price is supported amid sluggish electric vehicle sales.

Apart from Robotaxi itself, investors are also paying attention to whether Tesla will introduce more affordable new models at this event. Mark Delaney from Goldman Sachs pointed out:

"Whether Tesla will provide more details or launch a lower-cost new model at the 10/10 event is also a topic frequently discussed among investors."

Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley stated:

"As Tesla's 10/10 Robotaxi event approaches, frankly, we are working hard to see how this day can meet investors' high expectations. Besides showcasing FSD v12.5 and offering the first 'Cybertcab' ride-hailing service, what else?"

Dan Levy pointed out that after the Robotaxi event, if Tesla's stock price rises, it may further drive the stock's strength.

"This reminds people that at least for now, concerns about the fundamentals have dissipated."