Weekly Economic Calendar: Focus on Jobs report, ISM Index

The economic calendar shows the economic events related to the U.S. economy that significantly impact the financial markets. This Week's U.S. Economic Reports & Fed Speakers are as follows:

Monday - September 30

8:50 Fed's Bowman: Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy

9:45 Chicago PMI

The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index determines the economic health of the manufacturing sector in the Chicago region. The Chicago Business Barometer has remained in contraction territory in 2024 and economist still expects a contraction in manufacturing activity in September, with consensus of 46.5 points. August PMI came in at 46.1 up from 45.3 in the prior month and surpassing market estimates of 45.5.

10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' general business activity index gauges results provided by manufacturing firms throughout the state of Texas. The index is expected to decline 4.5 points in September after 9.7 contraction in August, marking the lowest contraction level since January 2023.

1:00 PM Jerome Powell: "Finding Harmony in the Noise: Transitioning to a New Normal"

Jerome Powell Speech Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to speak before the National Association for Business Economics 66th Annual Meeting,"Finding Harmony in the Noise: Transitioning to a New Normal".

Tuesday - October 1

9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index provides survey results from manufacturing firms throughout the country. Based on a flash PMI of 47.0, the economist expects the manufacturing sector to contract in September, down from 47.9 in August.

10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index

The Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index Report on Business is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies across the United States. The September ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 47.2, in line with the prior month.

10:00 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey

A survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics collects data from employers about their businesses employment, job openings, recruitment, hires and separations. August openings are expected at 7.65M after 7.673M openings in July, the lowest level since January 2021.

10:00 Construction Spending

The Construction Spending index measures the change in the total amount spent on construction (both public and private). The August construction spending is expected to rebound at 0.2% after a 0.3% decline in July.

11:00 Fed's Bostic: "Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications of AI, Big Data, and Remote Work"

Bostic Speech Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give welcome and opening remarks before the"Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications of AI, Big Data, and Remote Work" conference organized by the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston and Richmond.

Wednesday - October 2

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications

The datapoint measures the change in the number of new applications for mortgages backed by the MBA during the reported week. Mortgage applications in the US soared by 11% for the week ending September 20, to lift mortgage application volumes to their highest since June 2022. The benchmark mortgage rates, with that on a 30-year fixed contract eased to a two-year low of 6.13% as the outlook of a dovish Fed kept the yield on long-term Treasuries in check.

8:15 ADP Jobs Report

The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. Private businesses in the US is expected to add 121,500 after adding 99K workers to their payrolls in August 2024, the lowest number since January 2021.

9:00 Fed's Hammack Speech

Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack to give welcome remarks before the 2024 Minorities in Banking Forum hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

10:05 Fed's Musalem: "Where Research and Policy Meet"

St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem to give welcome remarks before the Community Banking Research Conference 2024:"Where Research and Policy Meet," co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve System, the Conference of State Bank Supervisors and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories

The Energy Information Administration reports inventory levels of US crude oil, gasoline and distillates stocks. The figure shows how much oil and product is available in storage. Stocks for the week ended Sep 20, were 3,492 Bcf vs. 3,445 Bcf for the week ended Sept. 13.

11:00 Fed's Bowman: "Where Research and Policy Meet"

Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman to give keynote speech before the Community Banking Research Conference 2024:"Where Research and Policy Meet," co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve System, the Conference of State Bank Supervisors and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

12:15 PM Fed's Barkin: Economic Outlook

Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak on the national economic outlook before the 2024 WilmingtonBiz Conference and Expo.

Thursday - October 3

7:30 Challenger jobs-Cut Report

This monthly report counts and categorizes announcements of corporate layoffs based on mass layoff data from state departments of labor. 79,000 job cuts are expected in September after US employers announced 75,891 job cuts in August 2024, the most in five months, and the most for the month since 2009 when excluding the pandemic-induced crash in 2020.

8:30 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. The jobless claims is expected to edge higher to 220K after dropping by 4K last week to 218,000, reaching a new 4-month low.

9:45 PMI Composite Final

In the United States, Markit Composite PMI Output Index tracks business trends across both manufacturing and service sectors. The index is based on data collected from a representative panel of over 1,000 companies and follows variables such as sales, new orders, employment, inventories and prices. The S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI edged lower to 54.4 in September 2024 from 54.6 in August.

10:00 ISM Service Index

The ISM Report On Business continues to be consistent and accurate in indicating the direction of the overall economy, in addition to the manufacturing and services sectors. The analyst expects ISM Services PMI to be 51.5, in line with the 51.5 August reading.

10:00 Factory Orders

Factory Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers. New orders are expected to edge 0.1% after sharp rise of 5% in July.

10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory

The Energy Information Administration Natural Gas Storage report measures the change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage over the prior week. US utilities added 47 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week that ended September 20, 2024, below market expectations of a 52 bcf rise.

10:40 Fed's Kashkari: "Featuring Frontier Research to Enhance Economic Opportunity and Inclusive Growth"

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in hybrid "Featuring Frontier Research to Enhance Economic Opportunity and Inclusive Growth" 2024 Research Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

10:40 Fed's Bostic: "Featuring Frontier Research to Enhance Economic Opportunity and Inclusive Growth"

Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in hybrid "Featuring Frontier Research to Enhance Economic Opportunity and Inclusive Growth" 2024 Research Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

The Fed balance sheet is a weekly report listing the assets and liabilities of the Federal Reserve System. Central Bank Balance Sheet in the U.S. decreased to $7,080B in the week ended September 25 from $7,109B in the previous week.

Friday - October 4

8:30 Non-farm payrolls

Nonfarm payrolls track the number of part-time and full-time employees in both business and government. Economists forecast 140K job additions for September, almost similar to 142K jobs addition in August and for the unemployment rate to stay at 4.2%.

9:00 Fed's William Speech

New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to speak before the 2024 Treasury Market Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Factors to watch include growth, inflation, unemployment, expected timing of changes in the fed funds rate, and expected levels of the fed funds rate in the near term.

1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count

The Baker Hughes North American rig count tracks weekly changes in the number of active operating oil & gas rigs. The active rig count acts as a leading indicator of demand for oil products. Crude oil rigs in the U.S. fell to 484 in September 27 from 488 in the previous week, marking the lowest reading in the last three weeks.