Goldman Sachs Chief Global Equity Strategist: US stock market rally will slow down, valuation expansion will also depend on Europe and China

Goldman Sachs' Chief Global Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer predicts that U.S. stock valuations are currently high, and the potential for further valuation expansion lies in European and Chinese stocks.

Oppenheimer told the media that the U.S. stock market appears expensive, and any further upside is likely to be moderate. The possibility of further valuation expansion in U.S. stocks is low, but profit growth is expected to drive market performance. Oppenheimer expects the range of returns in the U.S. stock market to widen, especially within mid-cap stocks, as they have higher leverage and can benefit more from interest rate declines; additionally, they are cheaper and have experienced significant growth.

Compared to U.S. stocks, Oppenheimer is more bullish on the valuation expansion of European and Chinese stocks, believing that valuation expansion is more likely to occur in these two regions' stock markets.

Oppenheimer predicts that a large number of European stocks with exposure to China will further benefit from China's large-scale stimulus measures. German stocks and stocks from other European regions that are mainly focused on the domestic market face pressure due to weakened domestic demand. "I think this situation may continue until - or unless - there is more proactive intervention in rate cuts and growth support in any way."

In the European stock market, given the low valuations, high free cash flow yield, and dividend yield, Oppenheimer believes that UK stocks are currently very attractive. He said, "Investor enthusiasm in the UK is higher, and the situation is more stable."

Last week, following a series of stimulus measures such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions announced by the Chinese central bank on Thursday, luxury goods stocks heavily dependent on the Chinese market surged across the board on Thursday. LVMH, Kering, Dior, Hermes all rose by at least 9%, Burberry rose nearly 9%, while stocks of brands like Remy Cointreau, Richemont, L'Oreal, L'Oreal, Beiersdorf, and Hugo Boss saw price increases ranging from 7.9% to 4.78%.

Last week, the European stock sector where luxury goods giants are located - personal and household goods - rose by about 9.4%, second only to the basic resources sector, which also benefited from the prospects of Chinese stimulus, with a weekly increase of about 10.8%. Auto stocks, which are significantly influenced by the Chinese market, also rose, with the auto and parts sector rising by nearly 6.1% for the week. In contrast, the best-performing sector in the S&P 500 in the U.S., the materials sector, only rose by about 3.4%