Overnight US Stocks | Breaking Seasonal Patterns! All three major indices rose in September, with the Golden Dragon Index up about 30% this month

According to CNBC, on Monday, the three major indices rose, marking the last trading day of September and the third quarter. Historically, the U.S. stock market has typically performed poorly in September, but in September this year, the Dow rose by 1.85%, the Nasdaq rose by 2.68%, and the S&P 500 rose by 2.02%. In the third quarter, the Dow rose by 8.2%, the Nasdaq rose by 2.6%, and the S&P 500 rose by 5.53%. The China Golden Dragon Index rose by approximately 30% this month.

[U.S. Stocks] At the close, the Dow rose by 17.15 points, or 0.04%, to 42,330.15 points; the Nasdaq rose by 69.58 points, or 0.38%, to 18,189.17 points; the S&P 500 rose by 24.31 points, or 0.42%, to 5,762.48 points. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 0.44%, Dingdong Maicai (DDL.US) rose by nearly 12%, and RLX Technology (RLX.US) rose by 7.44%. Gold stocks declined, with Gold Fields (GFI.US) falling by 5.48% and Coeur Mining (CDE.US) falling by 3.37%.

[European Stocks] The German DAX 30 Index fell by 133.59 points, or 0.69%, to 19,347.25 points; the UK's FTSE 100 Index fell by 82.94 points, or 1.00%, to 8,237.82 points; the French CAC 40 Index fell by 156.04 points, or 2.00%, to 7,635.75 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 Index fell by 66.40 points, or 1.31%, to 5,001.05 points; the Spanish IBEX 35 Index fell by 92.29 points, or 0.77%, to 11,875.61 points; and the Italian FTSE MIB Index fell by 595.40 points, or 1.71%, to 34,132.00 points.

[Asia-Pacific Stock Markets] The Nikkei 225 Index fell by 4.8%, and the Jakarta Composite Index fell by 2.2%.

[Gold] COMEX gold futures fell by 0.47% to $2,655.50 per ounce. Gold rose by 4.74% in September, with a volatile uptrend starting on September 12th, trading in a range of $2,502.70 to $2,708.70 per ounce for the month. COMEX silver futures fell by 1.58% to $31.420 per ounce, with a 7.81% increase in September, trading in a range of $28.010 to $33.020 per ounce.

[Cryptocurrencies] Bitcoin fell by nearly 3% to $63,701.5 per coin, while Ethereum fell by 1.8% to $2,611.65 per coin.

[Crude Oil] U.S. WTI crude oil closed basically flat on Monday. The futures contract fell by 6.2% in September, marking the third consecutive monthly decline. Increased supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, coupled with weak demand prospects, have put pressure on oil prices. The November delivery West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $0.01, or 0.01%, to close at $68.17 per barrel. It fell by over 6.16% in September. Brent crude oil futures, the global benchmark, fell by approximately 9% in September. Barclays Bank forecasts an average price of $85 for Brent crude oil in 2025 【Metals】 Most London metals fell, with London zinc down 0.18%, London copper down over 1%, London aluminum down 1.38%; London nickel rose over 3%.

【Macro News】

Powell: Will gradually cut interest rates based on data, expecting two more 25BP rate cuts this year. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell still believes that the U.S. economy will achieve a soft landing. Powell said on Monday that the rate cut process will be further "adjusted" based on upcoming economic data. He stated, "By appropriately adjusting our policy stance, in an environment of moderate economic growth and inflation continuing to fall towards the target, the labor market can remain resilient." "Overall, the economic situation is good; we intend to use our tools to maintain this situation." Powell said that if the economy continues to develop along its current path, he expects two more 25 basis point rate cuts this year, while the market has been betting on a more aggressive rate cut cycle.

Chicago area business activity decline eases. The Chicago PMI for September rose from 46.1 in August to 46.6 in September. This broke expectations for further deterioration of the index. However, this result still points to economic contraction, with 24 out of the past 25 months indicating such. Improvements in unfilled orders and employment this month drove the overall index higher. But new orders and production saw larger declines, indicating that demand and output remain weak.

Atlanta Fed President: Willing to consider a 50 basis point rate cut if labor market weakens. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Bostic stated that if upcoming data shows that job growth is slowing faster than expected, he would be open to another 0.5 percentage point rate cut at the Fed's November meeting. Bostic stated that his baseline outlook is for the Fed to "orderly" ease policy over the next 15 months, with policy rates reaching the 3.00%-3.25% range by the end of 2025. "If the situation is that inflation continues to decline while the labor market remains strong, then I think we can be a bit more patient with rate cuts," Bostic said, noting that it is useful and positive for the Fed to take a restrictive stance before more data shows a decline in inflation.

U.S. home turnover rate drops to lowest level in decades. According to Redfin data, in the first 8 months of 2024, only 25 out of every 1000 U.S. homes were sold, the lowest turnover rate in decades. The number of homes sold this year decreased by 37.5% compared to the buying frenzy during the pandemic in 2021, with 40 homes out of every 1000, a 31% decrease from 36 homes out of every 1000 in 2019. Home turnover rates are at historic lows for various reasons, including rising mortgage rates, price increases and supply shortages, as well as economic and political uncertainties. The proportion of homes listed for sale in the first 8 months of this year has also decreased to the lowest level since at least 2012.

Bank of America: Expects ECB to cut rates earlier in October. Bank of America adjusted its forecast for the European Central Bank on Monday, now expecting the next rate cut to be in October instead of December. This revision came after ECB President Lagarde's speech, where she expressed confidence that policymakers have control over inflation and will consider this at the October meeting Bank of America said it will continue to cut interest rates after the October cut, with deposit rates expected to fall to 2% by June 2025, one quarter earlier than previously expected. The bank also expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates quarterly in September and December 2025, bringing deposit rates down to 1.50%. This is the same level as previously expected by the bank, but six months earlier.

BlackRock shifts to overweight Chinese stocks due to expected major fiscal stimulus measures. BlackRock strategists are overweight Chinese stocks, expecting possible "major fiscal stimulus measures" to drive investor participation. The team led by BlackRock's Global Chief Investment Strategist Wei Li wrote in a report to clients on Monday, "We believe there is room for moderate overweighting of Chinese stocks in the short term, as their discount to developed market stocks approaches record levels, while catalysts may stimulate investors to re-enter the market."

[Stock News]

Tesla (TSLA.US) wins in Musk's autopilot marketing-induced investor lawsuit. Tesla successfully dismissed a shareholder lawsuit alleging that misleading statements about Tesla's autopilot capabilities supported its stock price, despite facing other complaints and regulatory investigations regarding its marketing practices. The name "Full Self-Driving" is inaccurate - the FSD feature requires continuous monitoring and does not enable autonomous driving, but Musk has repeatedly predicted that the feature will reach the level advertised by the brand. Tesla has faced multiple lawsuits related to this feature, including lawsuits brought by Tesla investors who claim they were misled. On Monday, a U.S. district judge dismissed the shareholders' allegations, who claimed Musk exaggerated Tesla's autonomous driving technology and made promises such as drivers being able to "sleep in the car." The judge found that some of the alleged exaggerations involved future plans, while others were not necessarily false.

Germany to intensify antitrust regulation on Microsoft (MSFT.US). The German Federal Cartel Office announced on September 30 that it has classified Microsoft as a company "of paramount importance to market competition." The agency stated that the new classification means Microsoft will be subject to stricter supervision and may face prohibitions for anti-competitive behavior. The German Federal Cartel Office stated that its new powers apply to Microsoft as a whole, not just its individual services or products. A Microsoft spokesperson said, "We recognize our responsibility to support a healthy competitive environment, and we will strive to take a proactive, collaborative, and responsible approach in our cooperation with the German Federal Cartel Office."

Google (GOOGL.US, GOOG.US) to invest $1 billion in Thailand to accelerate AI development in Asia. Global tech giant Google announced plans to invest $1 billion in Thailand to establish advanced data centers, strengthening its cloud computing and artificial intelligence infrastructure in Southeast Asia. Google's data centers will be located in Bangkok and Chonburi. According to Deloitte's research, this investment is expected to create 14,000 job opportunities annually for Thailand in the next five years and could contribute up to $4 billion in economic growth for Thailand by 2029. Google's investment plan, announced in collaboration with Thailand's newly appointed Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, demonstrates efforts by Southeast Asian governments to attract foreign tech companies Southeast Asia, a region with a population of about 675 million, is rapidly becoming a new battleground for tech giants. Companies like Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Amazon are also actively investing billions of dollars to build artificial intelligence data centers in countries such as Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia. Ruth Porat, Chief Investment Officer of Google's parent company Alphabet, mentioned in an email, "We are investing in building cloud service regions, data centers, and undersea cables across the region, continuing our efforts over the years to bring cloud infrastructure closer to local people and organizations. This region has tremendous development potential."