Q2 revenue improvement is difficult, Nike withdraws full-year performance guidance, falling more than 5% after hours

According to the financial news app Zhitong Finance, Nike (NKE.US) has withdrawn its full-year performance expectations due to lower-than-expected sales. The financial report shows that Nike's revenue for the first quarter of the 2025 fiscal year was $11.6 billion, a 10.4% year-on-year decrease, below market expectations; net profit was $1.051 billion, a 28% year-on-year decrease; diluted earnings per share were $0.70, exceeding the market's expected $0.52.

During the company's conference call with analysts, Chief Financial Officer Matt Friend stated that the withdrawal of guidance was due to an upcoming leadership transition. The company expects second-quarter revenue to decline by 8% to 10% year-on-year, similar to the previous quarter. The company's stock fell more than 5% after hours, dropping 5.23% to $83.90 at the time of writing.

Friend said, "While we have achieved some early wins, we have not yet turned the tide." Outgoing CEO John Donahoe did not participate in the conference call.

Nike is resetting expectations before Elliott Hill takes over as the new CEO. This is one of the most challenging periods for Nike in decades, and investors are eager to hear how he plans to turn the situation around.

However, they may have to wait longer than expected: the company has postponed its Investor Day scheduled for November to give Hill time to formulate a strategy. It is expected that he will discuss how Nike plans to rebuild strained relationships with abandoned retailers while retaining employees who have lost confidence in the company's trajectory. It is crucial that he also accelerates the development of new products.

Direct-to-consumer revenue was $4.7 billion, higher than the expected $4.58 billion, but down 13% year-on-year, while wholesale revenue decreased by 8% to $6.4 billion, below the expected $6.56 billion.

The financial report shows that Nike's revenue decline was particularly severe in North America and Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, with the Converse brand also being a problematic area, with sales falling 15% to $501 million, below the expected $523 million.

In addition, sales in Greater China exceeded expectations, with a 4% decline, the smallest among the company's regions. Gross margins also exceeded expectations, with retailers citing lower product, warehousing, and logistics costs. The company noted that last year's price adjustments also helped improve profitability. Earnings per share for the quarter ended August 31 exceeded expectations.

Future Trends

These data may not be too important for investors, as they indicate that this quarter is somewhat transitional while waiting for the new CEO's strategy to be unveiled.

BMO Capital Markets analyst Simeon Siegel said, "The idea here is that everyone understands that Nike's stock price will now depend on the actions of the new CEO, and this is not a problem that can really be solved." "It's a picture of reality that we already know has changed."

Hill is a senior employee at Nike, who started working there decades ago as an intern, and he will return on October 14 to take over the top position. He replaces Donahoe, who became Nike's CEO in 2020 when Nike's sales were soaring, but under his leadership, Nike experienced one of the most turbulent years in the company's half-century historyNike's board of directors has chosen Donahoe, who previously served as CEO of eBay Inc. and Bain & Company, to be the CEO, hoping that he can leverage his expertise in e-commerce to transform Nike into a digital giant. He has stopped or reduced sales to more than half of the retail partners for athletic shoes, instead focusing on supporting Nike's own stores, websites, and apps.

Under Donahoe's leadership, Nike achieved a revenue target of $50 billion, driven by rapid growth in lifestyle athletic shoes such as Dunks and Air Force 1s. However, with cooling demand for these products last year, executives have been busy looking for alternatives to compete with increasingly fierce competition from brands like On, Hoka, and Salomon, which quickly filled the shelf space vacated by Nike.

In December last year, Donahoe proposed a $2 billion cost-cutting plan, including a phased 2% workforce reduction to be implemented in the first half of this year. In June this year, Nike experienced its worst day in the stock market since going public in 1980. Executives at the time predicted a decline in sales for the current fiscal year, increasing pressure from investors on Donahoe and his leadership team.

Slowdown in Growth

Meanwhile, due to the company's response to the pandemic crisis and reliance on existing lifestyle shoes, product development has slowed down. Executives have stated that they will launch a three-year lightning war before the Paris Olympics this year to realign the product line.

Nike is heavily investing around the Olympics, attempting to boost sales with bolder ads targeting a global audience. The company stated that this quarter's "demand creation" expenses increased by 15% to $1.2 billion.

When Hill takes over as CEO, investors will be watching how he plans to rebuild relationships with abandoned retailers, retain employees who have lost confidence in the former regime, and accelerate innovation to bring new products to market.

Morningstar senior stock analyst Swartz stated before the report was released: "Expectations are very low."