Nearly doubled compared to expectations! September non-farm payrolls "exceeded expectations", is the Fed slowing down interest rate cuts a "foregone conclusion"?

The U.S. labor market added far more jobs than expected in September, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping, reflecting a much stronger employment market outlook than Wall Street's expectations.

Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that the job market added 254,000 jobs in September, higher than economists' expectations of 140,000, and also higher than the revised 159,000 in August. At the same time, the unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% in August to 4.1%.

As an important indicator of inflationary pressure, wage growth year-on-year rose from 3.9% in August to 4%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, consistent with the data from August; the labor force participation rate remained unchanged from the previous month at 62.7%.

After the data was released, spot gold plummeted by $20 in the short term, the U.S. dollar index surged, and rose above the 102 level.

It is worth noting that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the non-farm payroll numbers for July upward from 89,000 to 144,000; and for August upward from 142,000 to 159,000. After the revisions, the total number of new jobs in July and August was 72,000 higher than before the revisions.

Following the strong employment data, traders further bet that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November and December, and lowered expectations for the magnitude of rate cuts in the Fed's future four meetings to less than 100 basis points.

Data released earlier this week shows that job demand remains healthy, while layoffs are still at a low level, so the employment report may alleviate concerns about the labor market cooling too quickly. The employment data may increase the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed next month, after the Fed made a significant 50 basis point rate cut at its September meeting.

Fed Chairman Powell recently pushed back against investors' expectations of another 50 basis point rate cut in November, stating "the committee does not feel the need to rush to cut rates."

Last month's hiring growth was mainly driven by the leisure and hospitality industry, as well as the healthcare and government sectors.

Analyst Audrey pointed out that today's employment data once again reminds us that the market often underestimates the U.S. economy. This is a convincing strong report that can temporarily set aside recent discussions about a recession, which will boost the good sentiment towards the U.S. dollar over the past few trading days. While eurozone data has been lackluster, recent U.S. data has surprisingly trended upwards, consistent with the recent downtrend in the euro/dollar pair.

However, the market and economists are likely to focus on the October non-farm payroll report, which will include the impact of approximately 33,000 Boeing factory workers on strike last month. Another large-scale strike initiated by U.S. dockworkers ended three days later and may not have a direct impact on this data However, another issue is Hurricane, which has caused damage in large areas of the southeastern United States. Some areas are working hard to reopen roads and restore power, indicating that business recovery will take time