Jibang Consulting: It is expected that the total shipment volume of MLCC suppliers in the fourth quarter will be approximately 1.205 billion, a decrease of 3.6% from the previous quarter

According to the latest survey by TrendForce, the economic data shows that inflation in the US market has been cooling down recently. The Federal Reserve announced a two-step interest rate cut in September to prevent economic growth from slowing down. In addition, under the uncertain international situation, consumers may reduce their willingness to spend, and a conservative and downgraded consumption attitude may become a major risk impacting the demand for year-end holiday shopping. TrendForce estimates that the total shipment volume of MLCC suppliers in the fourth quarter of 2024 will be approximately 1.205 billion units, a decrease of 3.6% from the previous quarter.

Mobile phones and laptops have conservative orders in the peak season, while AI server demand remains strong, benefiting mainly Japanese and Korean suppliers

TrendForce stated that the forecasted order volume for laptops in the fourth quarter released by ODMs has decreased by an average of 5% to 8%. Due to the conservative planning of orders by brand owners for mobile phones, laptops, networking, tablets, etc., only a slight increase in demand for commercial laptops and Huawei's new three-fold phone has led to a cautious attitude towards material preparation by ODMs in mid-September. Even in the face of the Chinese National Day holiday and European and American holiday demand, their material preparation attitude remains relatively cautious. In addition, although Apple has launched the AI-enabled iPhone 16, Apple Intelligence still needs time to mature related applications, and whether it can trigger a replacement wave remains uncertain.

On the other hand, the demand for AI servers continues to rise. Although the NVIDIA Blackwell GPU was delayed in mass production until mid-fourth quarter due to mask design modifications, the market demand for the Hopper architecture continues to grow. Orders for H100/H200 GPUs in the fourth quarter increased by 65%, and orders for the downgraded version H20 GPU also increased by 33%. These developments have driven the continuous growth in demand for 400G switch switches for American CSP customers and AI acceleration cards for Amazon (AWS) (using Annapurna network chips), leading to an average increase of nearly 15% in forecasted orders for some networking factories in the fourth quarter. TrendForce pointed out that there is not much change in the demand for high-end MLCC stocking in the fourth quarter, and Japanese and Korean suppliers will have more time to plan capacity allocation to meet the demand surge for next year's GB200 orders.

Weakening US dollar, strengthening Asian currencies, MLCC suppliers face increased operational and pricing pressures

The Federal Reserve has officially started an interest rate cut cycle, causing the US dollar to weaken and driving up Asian currencies. In mid-September, the Japanese yen broke through 140 yen against the US dollar. TrendForce stated that MLCC suppliers in the fourth quarter are facing a slowdown in order demand, and the sudden increase in exchange rate losses will add to their operational pressure. Therefore, suppliers plan to control capacity utilization rates, reduce inventory levels to stabilize product pricing, and thereby maintain revenue and profitability. According to TrendForce's survey, the average capacity utilization rates of Japanese and Korean manufacturers are still maintained at over 80%, while the rest of the manufacturers are hovering between 60% to 70%. Due to the weaker-than-expected start of the peak season in the second half of this year, coupled with the slowdown in order demand in the fourth quarter, suppliers have become more cautious in their operations and pricing