Morgan Stanley: US Core CPI Expected to Rise Moderately in September, Overall Inflation Decline May Affect Future Interest Rate Decisions

According to the Wise Finance APP, the US CPI data for September will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday. Morgan Stanley predicts that the core CPI for September will increase by 0.26% month-on-month, slightly higher than the market's general forecast of 0.20%. The bank also predicts that the core CPI for September will increase by 3.2% year-on-year, in line with the market's general forecast. Morgan Stanley also stated that it expects the overall CPI for September to increase by 0.09% month-on-month, with the overall inflation rate declining due to a drop in gasoline prices.

Morgan Stanley forecasts that due to the rise in prices of used cars and airfares, goods inflation is expected to rise slightly, but service inflation is expected to slow down, mainly due to a decline in housing inflation. The bank believes that the recent increase in Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) may be influenced by temporary seasonal factors, and expects this indicator to undergo some adjustments. The bank also predicts that after two months of weak performance, inflation in the healthcare sector will accelerate.

In conclusion, Morgan Stanley believes that there are nuances in the outlook for the US CPI report for September. It is expected that the core CPI will rise moderately, while the trends in goods and services inflation are mixed. The bank believes that the overall inflation expectations driven by the decline in gasoline prices may affect the market's view on the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The bank added that this CPI report will play a key role in assessing inflation trends and the potential impact on future rate decisions