The Double 11 e-commerce battle will start next week. With the support of the "upgrade" policy, consumer spending may still have surprising performance

1. Event: Double 11 Shopping Festival

According to E-commerce Home, this year's Double 11 shopping feast started earlier than in previous years.

On September 19th, Kuaishou held the Double 11 Merchant Conference, announcing that its Double 11 event would be divided into five stages: preparation period, preheating period, opening day, category days, and carnival day. The official period of the event will be from October 18th to November 11th.

JD.com's Double 11 event will kick off on the evening of October 17th at 8 p.m., a week earlier than last year. This year, JD.com has already achieved spot sales during the pre-sale phase, followed by the "Hundred Billion Subsidy Day" on the evening of October 31st. Subsequently, there will be special periods, peak periods, and return periods.

Taobao Tmall will start the first wave of pre-sale on October 14th. According to its merchant rules, Taobao's pre-sale will start preheating at midnight on October 20th and officially begin at midnight on October 21st; the carnival day will start preheating at midnight on October 28th and officially begin at midnight on October 31st until November 11th. In addition, Taobao Tmall has introduced a three-round promotion mechanism this year, further extending the promotion period.

Pinduoduo's Double 11 event will also start comprehensively from midnight on October 14th, nearly a week earlier than last year. In addition, Douyin started the Double 11 pre-sale on October 8th, until October 17th, targeting post-National Day shopping demand; from October 18th to November 11th is the official period.

Policy Overlays May Bring Surprises

Regarding specific promotional product categories, Founder Securities pointed out that the performance of this Double 11 will be closely related to the market confidence in the beauty and skincare sector. The performance of the promotion will become an important anchor for investment in the beauty and skincare sector. Attention will be paid to the overall growth and expectations of core targets during the promotion period.

In terms of cross-border e-commerce, Minsheng Securities stated that throughout the year, the "trade-in" policy has provided demand support for cross-border e-commerce consumption throughout the year. Combined with domestic Double 11 promotions and policy overlays, the historically most favorable policies may bring surprises. At the end of the year, there is usually a window for valuation switching and dividend styles, and the cross-border e-commerce industry often performs well. With market sentiment entering a stable phase, the excellent performance of the cross-border e-commerce industry and policy support will provide a good foundation.

In the home furnishing sector, CICC Securities pointed out that the 150 billion yuan ultra-long-term special national bond funds supporting consumer goods trade-ins were all allocated to local governments in early August. Since the implementation of the policy, sales of home furnishings and consumer goods have seen a significant increase. With important consumption nodes like "Double 11" approaching, the policy effects are expected to continue to be released. Under the stimulus of a package of policies for stabilizing real estate and promoting consumption, the home furnishing sector is expected to see valuation recovery and performance improvement.

Furthermore, in the consumer electronics sector, Donghai Securities pointed out that from the perspective of shipment volume, the consumer electronics industry is experiencing a mild recovery. The wave of new product releases by terminal manufacturers starting in September and year-end consumer activities like "Double 11" are expected to continue to drive the pace of mobile phone shipments

2. Historical Leading Performance

On October 24, 2023, influenced by the market heat of "Double 11", the e-commerce sector strengthened. Focus Technology hit the daily limit and accumulated nearly a 50% increase from October 24 to December 7.

3. Related Companies

According to Dongxing Securities, in the beauty and cosmetics sector, attention can be paid to targets with strong product and brand strength, such as Pechoin; companies on the improving upward trend like Foride, Wanmei Stock, etc.

According to Huaxi Securities, in the cross-border e-commerce sector, companies to watch include Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, Hisense Home Appliances, and Changhong Meiling, as well as related companies in the home electronics sector like TCL Electronics, Hisense Visual, and cross-border e-commerce component companies Dunan Environment, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Changhong Huayi.

According to Donghai Securities, sub-sectors of the consumer electronics cycle that are expected to bottom out and rebound include: CIS companies Weir Shares, Sitwai, Goke Micro, RF companies Zhuosheng Micro, Weijie Chuangxin, storage companies Zhaoyi Innovation, Dongxin Shares, Jiangbolong, Bawei Storage, analog chip companies Shengbang Shares, Aiwei Electronics, Surplus, power sector companies Xin Jieneng, Yangjie Technology.

According to Open Source Securities, top sellers that follow overseas consumer trends and have strong brands or multi-store operation capabilities include: Seewo Era, Huakai Yibai