Key Macro Chart: When will the breakthrough rebound of gold start? (2024/10/9)
EIA inventory data shows a large increase in crude oil inventories, with API and EIA forecast errors widening. The trading of call options related to the VIX, a volatility index of the US stock market, has surged, enhancing market expectations for a spike in the VIX index. Analysts point out that with the reduction of geopolitical risks, the gold market may see a rebound, although it may face consolidation in the short term. The market has not shown a quadruple top, and gold prices are expected to break through, with indicators already in oversold territory, anticipating the start of a rebound
EIA Inventory Data
HFI Research: The API report shows a significant increase in crude oil inventories during the week (+3.75 million barrels), which was largely expected. However, the forecast error between API and EIA has widened to 11 million barrels, meaning that API data is much more pessimistic than EIA, probably exceeding by 5-6 million barrels.
Amplified Betting on Volatility
Bullish options trading related to the VIX volatility index surged on Tuesday to one of the highest levels this year. Among them, some of the most popular bets are based on expectations that the VIX index could soar to 45, 50, or even 55.
Delayed Correction
Analysts: With the geopolitical risk premium receding in the crude oil market, gold is finally able to react to the strong performance of recent U.S. data and the downward revision of rate cut expectations. Although the long-term outlook remains positive, the short-term outlook increasingly points to a consolidation phase.
When Will Gold Rebound
Analysts: There is no concept of a quadruple top in the market, this is a market about to make a major breakthrough. If you keep trying to break through, you will eventually succeed. We witnessed this when the gold price reached $2,550, and when the market's suppressing forces failed, the price quickly rose to $2,700.
During the rising phase of the medium-term cycle, the time spent in the downtrend area will not be too long, and the next rebound will begin, with the indicators currently in oversold territory. The following chart can be used as a reference to reasonably speculate on the start of a breakthrough rebound in gold.
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