Robotaxi debuts, latest progress in L4 driving... Is tomorrow's press conference a "watershed" moment for Tesla?

At 10:00 am on October 11th Beijing time, Tesla's "WE, ROBOT" event is about to take place, with the highly anticipated "Robotaxi" (also known as Cybercab) making its debut. This event is seen as a watershed moment for Tesla.

Elon Musk has always claimed that autonomous driving and Robotaxi are the company's most important products, which will create trillions of dollars in value. He even referred to this event as a "historic moment" that will be "the biggest event in the company's history."

Robotaxi is a fully autonomous driving car that does not require a human driver present. It is also Tesla's first new model since the release of the Cybertruck in November 2019, and consumers are eagerly anticipating it. Tesla has put a lot of effort into Robotaxi, and its success or failure may profoundly impact the company's future.

What kind of cutting-edge technology does Robotaxi have, what does it look like? When will it be mass-produced and commercialized? What other highlights are there at the event?

According to media reports, Robotaxi will feature a two-door, two-seat design with doors that open upwards like butterfly wings, and may not have a steering wheel or pedals... Wall Street predicts that Robotaxi will compete with the existing autonomous driving leader in the U.S., Waymo. In addition, Tesla may also introduce another new model, such as a robot van, and announce new developments in the Optimus robot and Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology.

Will this event really "make history," or is it just a "big pie" drawn by Musk? There are mixed expectations and doubts currently, with Wall Street warning to be cautious of Tesla's stock price downside risk from "selling facts," and the event may disappoint.

What cutting-edge technology does Robotaxi have and what does it look like?

In the book "Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future" by Ashlee Vance, there is a prototype image of Robotaxi (also known as Cybercab).

Currently, this design has been widely reported by the media as the appearance of Robotaxi - a "butterfly wing-style" two-door, two-seat, compact car similar to Cybertruck, with sharp edges and stainless steel finish.

According to the technology media Techcrunch, this car may not have a steering wheel or pedals. Despite opposition from Tesla engineers, Musk insisted on launching a specially designed car. However, due to the design choice not meeting U.S. federal vehicle safety standards, Tesla may encounter regulatory issues, and it is expected that Musk will use this as a reason why Robotaxi may have difficulty entering the marketAccording to reports, the difference between robotaxis and other Tesla models is that they can operate without a human driver present, potentially using a combination of cameras and computing power for navigation, without relying on the lidar sensors used by Cruise under General Motors and Waymo under Google, which Elon Musk considers too expensive and unnecessary.

Can Robotaxi Challenge the Autonomous Driving Leader? Tesla's L4 Technology and FSD Progress Are Worth Expecting

As a new type of taxi, investors are curious whether Robotaxi has the ability to compete with industry leader Waymo. Waymo is an autonomous driving car company under Alphabet.

Recently, Morgan Stanley's strategic analyst Brian Nowak pointed out in a research report that if Tesla introduces a viable L4 product, combining existing hardware and software, Robotaxi will have a competitive advantage in driving costs per mile compared to its peers.

L4 level autonomous driving is a clear prerequisite for true robotaxi service, while Tesla's current FSD service is still at the L2+ level. Autonomous driving is divided into six levels from L0 to L5, ranging from full human driving to fully autonomous driving.

Morgan Stanley stated that compared to Uber and Lyft, Tesla's autonomous driving taxi can save 41% of costs; and compared to Waymo's sixth-generation product, it can save 21% of costs. If Tesla can introduce a viable L4 product faster than Waymo, achieve production scale, and reduce costs, it will pose a threat to Waymo, Uber, and Lyft.

Bernstein analysts also pointed out that Tesla will demonstrate a specially designed "ride-hailing APP" at the event. Previously, Tesla has showcased a model of its robotaxi hailing APP, named "Fleet Management Solution," which includes functions such as calling cars and estimating wait times, and vehicle owners can also add or remove private cars.

At "Robotaxi Day," Tesla may also announce its progress in autonomous driving technology. Tesla has previously stated that it has accelerated the progress of FSD capabilities:

"Based on current trends, it seems that we should be able to increase the miles between interventions to a level that is far beyond human, to the point where unsupervised autonomous driving may be achieved by the end of this year."

When Will Robotaxi Enter Mass Production? When Will It Commercialize? At the Earliest by the End of 2025?

Although Musk has promised to launch fully autonomous Tesla vehicles for many years, it has not been achieved so far. Despite making some progress in FSD technology, human drivers still need to maintain attentionMorgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas predicts that Tesla will adopt a "dual strategy," providing "regulated" FSD ride-sharing services and application-based autonomous driving Robotaxi, with the first commercialization expected by the end of 2025 or 2026.

Regarding the production of Robotaxi, analysts at Deepwater point out that there is a lag between Tesla's product release and mass production, with the shortest interval for Model Y being 10 months, Cybertruck 48 months, and Semi 79 months. This means that any model announced by Tesla in August will start production as early as June 2025.

What else is worth paying attention to? Robot vans, semi-truck autonomous driving features, progress of Optimus

Some investors believe that during the Robotaxi unveiling event, Tesla will take the opportunity to launch another new vehicle, such as a robot van (Robovan) that can carry a dozen or even more people, or be used as an autonomous delivery vehicle.

Two sources said that Musk is expected to discuss Tesla's plans for developing full self-driving (FSD) for its semi-trailer electric truck (Semi), and how he views this technology for transporting goods. However, there will be no demonstration videos of semi-trailer trucks using full self-driving at this event.

In addition, Optimus humanoid robot is also one of the focus points. Since Optimus was released in 2022, Tesla has provided almost no updates on its progress. Nevertheless, Bernstein still believes that Tesla may have updated the progress of Optimus long ago, and the caption "We, Robot" at this event may imply Tesla's plan to include such updates.

Betting on the future with Robotaxi

Some media outlets claim that Musk is betting Tesla's future on autonomous driving taxis, sacrificing the development of the much-anticipated $25,000 cheaper electric car, cutting teams focused on other projects, and downplaying the impact of the company's slowing sales. "Therefore, when Musk finally unveils the prototype of the autonomous driving taxi on Thursday night, he will need to prove a lot."

In April of this year, Tesla abandoned the development plan for the affordable Model 2 and shifted its focus to developing Robotaxi. Reports reveal that Tesla is "doing everything possible for autonomous driving," prioritizing robot taxis over new models in terms of setting schedules and arranging production capacity.

At that time, after Tesla announced layoffs of over 10% globally, Musk liked a post on X, which stated that Musk had re-entered wartime CEO mode and decided to bet the entire company on Robotaxi.

For a long time, Musk has regarded autonomous driving and Robotaxi as Tesla's most important products, believing that their potential value could be as high as tens of trillions of dollars.

Doubts coexist: Wall Street is wary of the risk of a downward trend in stock prices due to "selling the fact," and the conference may be disappointing

Gene Munster, managing partner of investment firm Deepwater Asset Management, warned that if this highly anticipated event only showcases some technologies that cannot truly materialize, such as a non-moving car prototype, then Tesla's stock price may face downward risks due to investor disappointment.

CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson also stated, "Considering Tesla's recent stock price increase and the possibility of a disappointing conference, we believe the risks are high, with the downside risk greater than the upside risk." Moreover, historically, Tesla has always seen its stock price rise before major events, only to encounter a pattern of "selling the fact" after the event occurs. Currently, analysts are seeking more visibility on mid-term profit growth