Key Macro Chart: Signal of the US Dollar Truly Entering a Long-Term Bear Market (2024/10/10)
Goldman Sachs pointed out that due to the threat of attacks on oil infrastructure in Israel, Iran's crude oil exports have dropped to zero. The price of silver is approaching its highest level in 13 years, but the production of major silver-producing countries has remained almost unchanged, reflecting limited new supply. The Chinese market has seen increased volatility, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index changing direction multiple times during the morning trading session, reaching the highest level of volatility in 9 years. Analysts believe that the US dollar is about to enter a long-term bear market, with the current mid-term cycle potentially causing the US dollar index to fall below a key support level, signaling the beginning of the US dollar's collapse
Oil Supply
Goldman Sachs: Due to the threat of Israel launching attacks on oil infrastructure, Iran's crude oil exports have dropped to zero so far this week.
Silver Supply
Analyst: The price of silver is approaching its highest level in 13 years, but the production levels of the world's two largest silver-producing countries have hardly changed. This clearly reflects the restricted situation of new supply. In my opinion, due to limited capital for developing new mines, this situation may continue.
More importantly: Current silver production remains at the same level as in 2010.
Volatility
The volatility in the Chinese market has reached another level. The CSI 300 changed direction at least 12 times during the morning trading session, and the 10-day volatility reached the highest level in 9 years. After experiencing massive selling on Wednesday, the stock market rebounded significantly on Thursday.
USD Outlook
Analyst: The US dollar is about to enter a long-term bear market trend. As shown in the chart below, the current three-year cycle is showing a leftward shift pattern and has reached a top within three months. The mid-term cycle is forming lower lows and highs.
I believe that even if the DXY can rebound to the 200-day moving average, it will be difficult to sustain this level. Once the current mid-term cycle reverses, we will see the DXY break below the key support level of July 2023, marking the beginning of the US dollar collapse.
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