Understanding the Tesla Robotaxi launch event in one article! We, Robot: Has the future arrived?

This article is from JIN10 Data Information

At 10:00 am on October 11th, Beijing time, Tesla held the "We, Robot" event in Los Angeles, USA. Musk announced the launch of the autonomous Cybercab, Robovan, and an upgraded version of the Optimus robot. This event has been widely discussed on social media for several weeks, with many screenshots of invitations and related speculations. However, investors and analysts still expressed concerns about technical challenges and lowered their expectations.

The event took place at Warner Bros. Studios near Los Angeles, named "We, Robot," clearly paying tribute to the science fiction short story "I, Robot" by American writer Isaac Asimov. At the same time, this also echoes Musk's insistence that Tesla "should be seen as an AI robotics company, not just a car manufacturer."

Highlights of this event:

1. Robotaxi: Tesla unveiled the autonomous taxi Cybercab, a two-door two-seater car without a steering wheel and pedals, using inductive charging without a charging port. They also released the autonomous bus Robovan, which can accommodate 20 people and can also be used for cargo transportation.

2. Production timeline: Cybercab is expected to start production in 2026 and be produced at a very high volume before 2027. Users can experience the autonomous taxi on other Tesla models in advance.

3. Cost aspect: Over time, the operating cost of Cybercab is expected to be around $0.2 per mile, with a tax-inclusive price of around $0.3 or $0.4 per mile. The cost of Cybercab is expected to be below $30,000. The travel cost of Robovan is 5 to 10 cents per mile.

4. Autonomous driving: Tesla is expected to launch the fully autonomous driving (FSD) function for Model 3 and Model Y without human supervision in Texas and California next year.

5. Optimus robot: Significant progress has been made on the Optimus project, and the cost will be between $20,000 and $30,000 in mass production. The Optimus robot performed a group dance at the event to demonstrate flexibility and also provided drinks for visitors at the post-event tour.

Musk rode a "Cybercab" onto the stage and announced that the production of this vehicle will start in 2026 with a price below $30,000. He said, "The future of autonomous driving has arrived. Tonight we have 50 fully autonomous cars, you will see Model Y and Cybercab, all of them are driverless."

He mentioned that the operating cost of Cybercab is 20 cents per mile, using inductive chargers without the need for plugging in. Moreover, they rely solely on cameras and artificial intelligence, without the need for other hardware devices commonly used by other autonomous driving competitors. When Musk mentioned that they would be able to personally test the Cybercab at the event, fans at the scene cheered excitedly Elon Musk also showcased a larger autonomous vehicle called the "Robovan," which can accommodate up to 20 people, and introduced Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot. Musk's plan is to operate a fleet of autonomous Tesla taxis that passengers can summon through an app. Tesla owners can also earn income by listing their vehicles as robot taxis.

Dennis Dick, an equity trader at Triple D Trading, said, "Everything looks cool, but the timeline is unclear. As a shareholder, I am somewhat disappointed. I think the market was hoping for a more specific timeline, but he didn't reveal too many details."

Musk had previously stated in 2019 that he was "very confident" the company would launch operational robot taxis the following year. However, the promises have repeatedly fallen through. This year, Musk shifted his focus to developing these vehicles and abandoned the original plan to manufacture a smaller, cheaper model—widely seen as a key response to the slowdown in demand for electric vehicles.

"Due to the failure of purchase incentives to attract enough customers to buy its aging electric models, Tesla may face the risk of a decline in deliveries for the first time this year. The significant price cuts taken to offset high interest rates have also squeezed profit margins."

Complex technology and strict regulations have caused other companies attempting to enter the robot taxi market to lose billions of dollars, leading to the closure of some companies. However, some companies continue to strive, including Cruise under General Motors, Zoox under Amazon, and Chinese companies like WeRide.

Unlike other companies using expensive lidar hardware, Musk relies solely on cameras and artificial intelligence to operate the FSD (Full Self-Driving) system to reduce costs. However, FSD technology requires the driver's continuous attention and has faced regulatory and legal scrutiny, with at least two fatal accidents involving the technology.

Regardless, if Tesla wants to commercialize Level 4 autonomous driving—meaning vehicles can drive automatically under certain conditions without human intervention—it needs to prove safety. Tesla has faced multiple federal investigations for fatal accidents involving its lower-level advanced driver-assistance system Autopilot. California has the strictest autonomous vehicle testing and deployment permit program, but in most other states, Tesla must at least prove its vehicles can safely pull over.

"Another issue is that the Cybercab lacks a steering wheel or pedals, which would make it non-compliant with federal vehicle safety laws." Cruise under General Motors had previously attempted to put its dedicated robot taxi, Origin, into production but failed to obtain the necessary approval from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and ultimately canceled the project.

It is currently unclear whether Tesla has the appropriate hardware to achieve Musk's long-promised future of full self-driving. As Musk announced in July on the X, the number of parameters needed to power Tesla's next-generation artificial intelligence has increased by about 5 times, "It's hard to achieve if the vehicle's reasoning computer is not upgraded."