Uber's stock price hits a new high, all thanks to Tesla's "divine assistance"?

Tesla (TSLA.US)'s highly anticipated Robotaxi (self-driving taxi) launch, which was originally seen as a major threat to Uber's (UBER.US) ride-sharing business, has turned out to be a positive development for Uber's stock.

Prior to the Thursday launch event, investors' excitement had caused Uber's stock price to decline continuously, especially showing weakness in early August and mid-September. However, in Friday's trading, as investors regained confidence in Uber's prospects in the autonomous driving car field, Uber's stock price surged over 10%, reaching a historical high and leading the S&P 500 index higher.

This trend marks a significant turnaround for Uber's stock price, which has risen nearly 22% in the past month and about 38% year-to-date. In contrast, another ride-sharing giant Lyft (LYFT.US) also saw an approximately 10% increase in its stock price on Friday. In stark contrast, Tesla's stock price plummeted significantly on Friday, down over 11% year-to-date, far behind the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, both of which have risen about 22% year-to-date.

The discussion surrounding Tesla's highly anticipated "Robotaxi" (cybercab) has gradually faded, as the company failed to provide detailed updates on its latest fully autonomous driving technology and did not offer in-depth insights into its ride-sharing service strategy or economic model, leaving investors disappointed.

According to information from the Wise Finance app, Jefferies analyst John Colantuoni stated in a report on Friday, "While Tesla has set ambitious goals, there is little evidence of feasibility."

Colantuoni also pointed out that Tesla did not provide verifiable evidence of progress towards L3 autonomous driving technology, making it difficult for outsiders to evaluate the feasibility of the goals presented at the event. Given that there is currently no precedent for achieving higher levels of autonomous driving solely relying on visual technology (rather than sensor fusion), there are still significant challenges to overcome. He believes this will help reduce the continued impact of Tesla's Robotaxi plan on Uber's stock.

Jefferies maintains a "buy" rating on Uber and sets a target price of $100.

Colantuoni also mentioned that the existence of Robotaxi may ultimately expand Uber's total addressable market, as increased supply will drive the introduction of low-cost autonomous vehicles, ultimately expanding the application scenarios of ride-sharing. Currently, Uber is the world's largest ride-sharing company.

He added, "We believe that autonomous driving developers will eventually choose to collaborate with ride-sharing platforms rather than operate fleets independently. We also believe that Uber has unique advantages in the ride-sharing field, which can help autonomous driving developers achieve sustainable growth through optimizing logistics, providing fleet management expertise, and addressing local regulations."

Although Tesla appears to be committed to independently developing its Robotaxi fleet without collaborating with existing ride-sharing platforms, Colantuoni believes that Tesla may eventually need to consider this option He said that Tesla "may have underestimated the obstacles to expanding the Robotaxi fleet" and may have difficulty scaling up its fleet business without providing demand channels through Uber or Lyft.

Bank of America analyst Justin Post also viewed Tesla's event as a positive for Uber, reiterating a "buy" rating on Uber on Friday. In the long run, Post said that the intensifying competition among Tesla, Google's Waymo, and several other autonomous driving competitors in California could benefit Uber, as Uber is expected to collaborate with multiple autonomous driving companies. He also speculated that in the future, Tesla's "autonomous taxi" owners may be able to add their cars to shared mobility platforms such as Uber or Lyft.

In a report to clients, Post wrote, "While investors may believe that Tesla's potential competition with Uber has not changed much in the long term (over 5 years), we have long known that the prototype of autonomous driving taxis is about to be launched, and this event lasted only 19 minutes, with fewer details and timelines than expected, which is less favorable for Uber."

Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi also found Tesla's event "disappointing and lacking in details," further strengthening his positive outlook on other major autonomous driving developers.

Sacconaghi reiterated an "outperform" rating on Uber and a "market perform" rating on Lyft, believing that shared mobility platforms can benefit from collaborating with autonomous driving companies, and over time, these platforms will add value to companies operating fixed fleets.

Lyft's stock price has fallen nearly 9% year-to-date, with less than one-third of analysts giving it a "buy" rating. According to FactSet data, the average target price indicates about a 6% potential upside