The Chinese auto market is picking up! In September, passenger car sales increased by 4.5% year-on-year, ending a five-month consecutive decline trend. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 50% for three consecutive months

China's September automobile production and sales report is out! Thanks to stimulus policies such as trade-in incentives, automobile sales in September have rebounded significantly.

The data released by the China Passenger Car Association on Saturday shows that in September, the national narrow-definition passenger car retail sales reached 2.109 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, ending five consecutive months of decline. Compared to the previous month, it increased by 10.6%, marking the second consecutive month of growth; the cumulative retail sales this year reached 15.574 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%.

The main increase comes from new energy vehicles. In September, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 1.123 million units, a year-on-year increase of 50.9% and a month-on-month increase of 9.6%. The domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 50% for three consecutive months, reaching 53.3% in September.

In terms of production, 2.418 million passenger cars were produced in September, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% and a month-on-month increase of 11.9%. The passenger car production in September was 20,000 units lower than the historical peak of 2.44 million units in the same period in 2023.

The China Passenger Car Association stated that the recent allocation of 150 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special national bonds by the country strongly supports the trade-in of consumer goods for new ones, and the effect of raising the subsidy standards for scrappage and renewal of automobiles is good.

Currently, various provinces and cities have successively introduced and implemented policies for automobile replacement subsidies, while relying on the funds allocated by the country to launch certain car purchase promotion and consumption policies. The subsidy policies with strong intensity have provided support for enterprises to seize the opportunity for promotion, thereby bringing a new wave of growth momentum to the automotive market.

With the further efforts of the national scrappage and renewal policy and the gradual introduction of local trade-in policies, coupled with the call from the country to prevent overwork, terminal prices have also begun to stabilize, consumer wait-and-see sentiment has further eased, and the overall heat of the automotive market has rebounded.

Export volume hits a new historical high

This year's overall automobile exports continue the strong growth trend from last year, with both overall passenger cars and new energy vehicles achieving record high export volumes in September.

According to passenger car manufacturers' statistics: In September, passenger car exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) reached 435,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 22% and a month-on-month increase of 5%; from January to September, cumulative passenger car exports reached 3.55 million units, a year-on-year increase of 32%. In September, new energy vehicles accounted for 24.2% of the total export volume, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared to the same period In addition, with the recovery of markets such as South America, the export of domestic brands reached 362,000 vehicles in September, a year-on-year increase of 22% and a month-on-month increase of 8%; joint ventures and luxury brands exported 73,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 20%.

New Energy Continues to Shine

The China Passenger Car Association stated that the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 50% for three consecutive months, reaching 53.3% in September, an increase of 16.8 percentage points from September 2023, maintaining a high penetration rate.

Data shows that in September, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.123 million units, a year-on-year increase of 50.9% and a month-on-month increase of 9.6%. From January to September 2024, retail sales reached 7.132 million units, a year-on-year increase of 37.4%. Domestic brands such as BYD, Li Auto, and XPeng all achieved their highest monthly sales records in September.

In September, the export of new energy passenger vehicles reached 105,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.3% and a month-on-month increase of 6.0%. From January to September 2024, exports reached 968,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 30.2%.

In September, the production of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.219 million units, a year-on-year increase of 51.5% and a month-on-month increase of 16.2%. From January to September 2024, production reached 7.859 million units, a year-on-year increase of 32.8%.

Sales of traditional fuel vehicles have shown some improvement but have not reversed the downward trend. Data shows that in September, retail sales of conventional fuel vehicles reached 990,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 22% and a month-on-month increase of 12%; from January to September, retail sales of conventional fuel vehicles reached 8.44 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 16%.

It is worth noting that the price war among car companies in September gradually stabilized, with fewer price promotions from July to September compared to the frequency from April to June.

Cui Dongshu: The Fourth Quarter Car Market is Expected to Continue to Warm Up

The China Passenger Car Association has given a positive outlook for the fourth quarter car market.

Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association, expressed optimism about the fourth quarter of this year, stating, "From the current situation, we are optimistic about the fourth quarter of the car market." He added, "We believe that the Chinese car market will gradually strengthen, especially in the fourth quarter, driven by the scrappage renewal and the promotion of old-for-new policies across the country."

He further mentioned that the fourth quarter car market will be influenced by various factors, especially expecting the stock market to continue to grow steadily, providing momentum for the car market.

As for October, the China Passenger Car Association stated that there are a total of 19 working days in October, which is the same as last year but one day less than September. However, October has one more natural day than September, resulting in shorter production time and longer sales time in October. "Golden September, Silver October" is a good time for the car market, and this year's "Golden September" effect has been prominent, with high expectations for sales in "Silver October." As the weather turns colder and the autumn harvest is completed, the buying enthusiasm in rural areas will gradually increase, and the market for new energy vehicles and mid-to-low-end fuel vehicles will also gradually heat up.

Automobile Association: Car Sales in September Decreased by 6% Year-on-Year, Recommends Continuing Old-for-New Policies and Related Measures Next Year

Compared to the China Passenger Car Association, the data from the Automobile Association is not as optimistic.

The Automobile Association announced data on Saturday, showing that in September, domestic car sales reached 2.27 million units, a month-on-month increase of 16.9% but a year-on-year decrease of 6%; car exports reached 539,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 5.4% and a year-on-year increase of 21.4%. From January to September, domestic car sales reached 17.259 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%; car exports reached 4.312 million units, a year-on-year increase of 27.3%.

In September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.307 million units and 1.287 million units respectively, with year-on-year increases of 48.8% and 42.3% respectively. The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.8% of total new car sales.

The Automobile Association stated that since the implementation of the policy to replace old cars with new ones, the boost effect has been significant. The number of applications for scrappage and replacement subsidies for cars has increased rapidly, effectively driving up car sales. Considering the positive role the policy to replace old cars with new ones has played in stimulating car consumption, in order to ensure the stability, continuity, and predictability of the policy, and effectively leverage the policy's promotional effect, it is recommended that relevant policies be continued next year, with the implementation details released as soon as possible to stabilize market expectations.