Breakfast | Korean Peninsula tensions rise; focus on US election; NVIDIA to hit new highs? Blackwell's supply for next year is already sold out!

Last Friday's Market Review

On Friday, the US September PPI inflation remained flat month-on-month, showing further cooling of inflation, easing concerns brought by CPI, supporting the Fed's rate cut next month. S&P and Dow hit new highs, with S&P closing above 5800 for the first time and Dow rising nearly 1%. Bank indices rose 3% after the start of the US stock earnings season, with all US stock indices rising over 1% for the week, and S&P rising for the fifth consecutive week. Tesla fell nearly 9% on the week and nearly 13% for the week, while NVIDIA turned lower on Friday but rose nearly 8% for the week.

Chinese concept stocks opened low and closed high, with the Chinese concept index falling 1.9% before closing up nearly 1%, but falling nearly 7% for the week. FTSE A50 futures rose over 3% in the night session. "Weixiaoli" fell over 3% before turning higher. Tiger Brokers rose over 18% before closing up over 6%. The RMB rose 260 points for the week.

The 10-year US Treasury yield rose 10 basis points for the week. The US dollar index fell slightly on Friday, moving away from an eight-week high, with a cumulative rise of 0.3% for the week.

Oil prices fell slightly on Friday but rose for the second consecutive week. Gold surged over 1%, rising for two consecutive days and slightly turning higher for the week. Bitcoin broke through $63,000, rebounding significantly by $4,000 from Thursday's low.

During the Asian session, the three major A-share indices collectively closed lower, with the ChiNext Index falling 5%, while cross-border payment concept stocks showed strength against the trend, and semiconductor stocks led the decline.

Summary of the Ministry of Finance Meeting

China's Ministry of Finance: Plans to increase debt limit on a one-time basis, the largest measure in recent years to support debt conversion; the central government still has significant room for debt issuance and deficit expansion.

The Ministry of Finance stated that the central government still has significant room for debt issuance and deficit expansion, planning to increase the debt limit on a one-time basis, the largest measure in recent years to support debt conversion. Issuance of special national bonds to support large state-owned commercial banks in supplementing core Tier 1 capital; combined with the use of tools such as local governments to support stabilizing the real estate market. By making good use of various debt funds, it will effectively supplement the comprehensive financial resources of local governments by 400 billion yuan.

Huatai Securities stated that there has been a directional shift in fiscal thinking. In terms of usage, it is no longer just infrastructure, mainly including four aspects: debt conversion + bank capital injection + real estate + people's livelihood. The next focus will be on the meeting of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, which may provide further answers in terms of amounts, paying attention to expectations.

CITIC Securities stated that this meeting marks the central government leveraging up, repairing the balance sheets of local governments and the real estate sector, and is also the long-awaited "central intervention" by the market. The central government's fiscal and monetary linkage easing is essentially an expansion of central government credit. For the market, this is a liquidity feast.

Shanxi Hongyuan stated that the press conference positively responded to fiscal pressures within the year, stating that the central government has significant room for debt issuance. A new round of debt replacement and supplementing core Tier 1 capital for state-owned banks is already underway. Policies related to adjusting debt budgets require approval from the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, and specific deployments may need to be closely monitored at the October meeting of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress.

Huachuang Securities believes that in the short term, there may be 2 trillion yuan to "balance" the fiscal budget deficit for the year and supplement capital for large state-owned banks; in the medium term of 1-3 years, there may be 6 trillion yuan for debt conversion. The focus will be on the end of October's meeting of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the December Political Bureau meeting, and the two sessions around March next yearThe historical scale of the three rounds of debt-to-equity swaps is as follows: The first round (2015-2018) issued a total of about 12.2 trillion yuan to replace existing government debt; the second round (2019) issued 157.9 billion yuan to replace hidden debts; the third round (December 2020-June 2022) has issued a cumulative total of 1.13 trillion yuan in special refinancing bonds.

State Council Information Office Press Conference: Press Conference on Increasing Support for Enterprises

The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10:00 am today. Luo Wen, Director of the State Administration for Market Regulation, Wang Jiangping, Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Hu Weilie, Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Justice, and Cong Lin, Deputy Director of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, will introduce the situation of increasing support for enterprises and answer questions from reporters.

Current Global Market Focus: Forget About a Hard Landing for the U.S. Economy, Trading on Inflation Again, Focus on the U.S. Election

Recently, the latest U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report showed strong performance, easing concerns about a hard landing for the economy. With the strong performance in the labor market, the rebound in oil prices, and other factors, the market is refocusing on inflation expectations.

In this scenario, Citigroup analyst Dirk Willer believes that risk assets and the U.S. dollar will benefit, while long-duration bond assets may come under pressure:

Concerns about a hard landing for the economy have been replaced by inflation expectations, mainly due to a stable job market, rising oil prices, and other factors. The inflation trend is favorable for risk assets and the U.S. dollar, but unfavorable for long-term bonds.

Additionally, as the U.S. election approaches, political factors are gradually becoming an important variable affecting the market:

The timing for election trading has arrived - given the possibility of continued close polls, the market is expected to start hedging risks.

China's CPI Rose 0.4% Year-on-Year in September, Unchanged Month-on-Month, PPI Year-on-Year Decline Widened to 2.8%

Affected by factors such as the start of the school season and the Mid-Autumn Festival, prices of fresh vegetables, eggs, fresh fruits, and pork rose by 4.3%, 2.5%, 2.1%, and 0.4% respectively; influenced by fluctuations in international commodity prices and insufficient effective domestic demand, the month-on-month decline in PPI narrowed while the year-on-year decline widened.

Guotai Junan Securities believes that the September price data still reflects the intertwining of insufficient domestic demand and deleveraging in the private sector, with the core CPI approaching a negative turn year-on-year. Looking ahead, the repair of microeconomic entities' confidence and the alleviation of debt burdens are of great significance for stabilizing domestic demand. It can be said that we have taken an important step towards repairing the balance sheet.

The General Staff Department of the Korean People's Army has Issued Instructions to Frontline Units to Prepare for Firing

According to CCTV reports, a spokesperson for the North Korean Ministry of Defense stated on October 13 that "due to South Korea's provocative actions against the North Korean capital Pyongyang, a military crisis is on the verge of breaking out. The General Staff Department of the Korean People's Army issued combat readiness instructions on October 12, requiring frontline artillery units of the Korean People's Army and units responsible for important firepower tasks to be fully prepared for comprehensive firing. If South Korea's provocation is confirmed again, it must be immediately struck, which could lead to an expansion of armed conflict. All units must be fully prepared to respond to different developments."South Korea's Ministry of National Defense stated that if it poses a threat to the security of South Korean nationals, the North Korean regime will come to an end.

The South Korean Ministry of National Defense stated that "North Korea, which has been provocatively sending garbage balloons to South Korea recently, is attempting to intimidate South Korean nationals, which is a case of a thief crying 'stop thief'."

Can NVIDIA reach new highs? Morgan Stanley reveals: Blackwell's supply for the next year is already sold out!

Analysts at Morgan Stanley stated that the demand for NVIDIA's GPU chips continues to rise, expecting the stock price to further increase with a target price of $150, representing an 11.2% upside from the current level. The next generation Blackwell chips from NVIDIA are already sold out, with customers having to wait until the end of 2025 to receive them, which will drive demand for existing products. Analysts are optimistic about NVIDIA's long-term prospects, believing that it remains at the forefront of artificial intelligence innovation.

Musk moves closer to Mars again!

SpaceX successfully attempted to catch the Starship booster with a "mechanical arm" for the first time. This means that the fully reusable Starship is now very close to reality, making Musk's Mars dream possible. According to previous reports by CNN, the first stage of the "Super Heavy" booster of the Starship completed a "historic landing" on the launch pad. Live footage showed the booster suspended between two huge metal arms (also known as "chopsticks"). Meanwhile, the Starship spacecraft is still in space. About half an hour later, the spacecraft will attempt to re-enter the atmosphere and is planned to splash down in the Indian Ocean