Breakfast | NVIDIA hits a new closing high, the bull market shows no signs of stopping, S&P breaks through the top for 5 consecutive weeks!

Market Overview

The three major US stock indexes closed higher for two consecutive days, with the S&P and Dow hitting new highs again. NVIDIA rose more than 2%, hitting a historical high for the first time in four months, supporting the US stock market.

Chinese concept stocks fell more than 2%, hitting a low for the month. XPeng Motors fell nearly 10%, Nio fell over 7%, and Pinduoduo fell 6%. Offshore renminbi fell nearly 300 points intraday, breaking below 7.10 to a new low in over a week.

The US dollar index rebounded to a two-month high. The Japanese yen hit a low of over two months. Bitcoin rose nearly $4,000 intraday, breaking through the $66,000 mark to hit a new high in over two weeks.

With the US dollar strengthening, commodities fell across the board. OPEC lowered its growth forecast for oil demand, causing oil to fall for two consecutive days, nearing a one-week low. After-market reports stated that Israel does not intend to target Iranian oil facilities, causing oil prices to fall further, dropping nearly 5% at one point. Gold hit a new high for over a week before turning lower. Base metals collectively halted their two-day rise, with London zinc and London tin falling over 2%, and London copper hitting a four-week low.

Fed Governor Wall: Strong Economic Data Suggests Need to Slow Rate Cuts

Fed Governor Wall stated on Monday that strong economic data since the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September suggests the need to slow down the pace of rate cuts.

Since the significant rate cut by the Fed last month, labor market data has shown a rebound in employment, and inflation has exceeded expectations. Wall, speaking at a conference at Stanford University in California, said, "While we do not want to overreact or ignore this data, I believe the overall data suggests that monetary policy should be more cautious in cutting rates than at the September meeting."

On September 18, the FOMC lowered the federal funds rate target range by half a percentage point to 4.75%-5.0%. Wall is a voting member of the FOMC.

Wall described three possible paths for future rates - a slow and steady decline, a larger rate cut, or a pause in rate cuts. Regardless of the path taken, the ultimate long-term goal is the same, to reach the so-called neutral rate, a level that neither stimulates nor suppresses economic activity.

BofA Survey: Geopolitical Concerns at Highest Level in Over 10 Years

Bank of America's credit investor survey for September showed that concerns about geopolitical risks have reached the highest level in over 10 years. The results of the survey for the third consecutive time showed that geopolitics remains the most concerning issue. In September, 32% of credit investors listed geopolitics as their top concern, up from 24% in August. Global economic recession is the second biggest concern, with 16% of investors ranking it as the second biggest concern, up from 11% in August. The survey also showed that 16% of investors listed central bank policy mistakes as their top concern, down from 20% in August.

NVIDIA Stock Closes at Record High, Investors Expect Strong Long-Term Demand for AI

NVIDIA's stock closed at a record high on Monday for the first time in about four months, as investors continue to expect strong long-term demand for artificial intelligence. NVIDIA's stock rose 2.4% to $138.07, breaking the record set in June. The stock has risen 40% from its low in August and is up 179% year-to-date The company's market value has increased by over $2 trillion in 2024 due to the rising trend. The recent strong performance of the stock is attributed to CEO Jensen Huang's remarks. He stated that the demand for the Blackwell chip has reached a "crazy" level, alleviating concerns about the delayed release of the chip due to engineering issues.

Stock Price Hits New High Ahead of Time! What to Look for in TSMC's Financial Report? HSBC: Narrative Shifts to 2nm

TSMC is set to release its third-quarter financial report this Thursday. HSBC recently released a research report stating that TSMC's performance will continue to be at the high end of its performance guidance. The report mentioned that the company's 2nm technology accelerating mass production and pricing increases will drive profit margin expansion over the next two years, leading to profit growth. Nomura Securities expects TSMC to indicate that its advanced packaging business will remain in short supply until 2026.

iPhone18ProMax to Debut with 2nm Chip

Industry insiders revealed that the iPhone 18 series in 2026 will debut with the A20 processor built on a 2nm process, featuring a new WMCM packaging and an upgraded 12GB memory. As a long-time major customer of TSMC, Apple has always been an early adopter of advanced process technologies, including 7nm, 5nm, and 3nm processes. It is no exception for the 2nm process. It is reported that TSMC will start mass production of the 2nm process by the end of next year, with Apple having reserved all initial production capacity of TSMC's 2nm process. Compared to the 3nm process, TSMC's 2nm is expected to deliver a 10-15% performance improvement and up to a 30% reduction in power consumption.

Bitcoin Surpasses $66,000! Harris Pledges Support for Digital Currency Regulatory Framework, COIN Soars by 11.3%

US presidential candidate and current Vice President Harris pledged support for a regulatory framework for digital currencies, boosting the trend of digital currencies on Monday. Additionally, the bankrupt Mt. Gox cryptocurrency exchange postponed the deadline for repaying the remaining assets to creditors by a year last week, easing concerns about a potential oversupply from creditors selling returned bitcoins. Bitcoin and Ethereum both rose by at least 6%.

In terms of stock market performance, COIN surged by 11.3%, while MSTR opened high but closed lower, falling by over 5%.

Today's Outlook

Companies such as Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Johnson & Johnson will announce their financial reports, officially kicking off a new round of earnings season in the US stock market