Understanding the Market | Non-ferrous stocks fall further, the US dollar strengthens, putting pressure on non-ferrous metals. Institutions say there may be some differentiation in the fundamental situation of metals
The non-ferrous stocks fell further, with Ganfeng Lithium down 6.19%, CMOC down 5.9%, JCCL down 5.57%, and Zijin Mining down 4.75%. Due to the higher-than-expected September CPI in the United States, the dollar strengthened, putting pressure on commodities priced in dollars. Huatai Securities pointed out that the fundamentals of copper, aluminum, and other varieties may show differentiation, and suggested paying attention to the risk of high copper prices suppressing demand. In terms of lithium, it is expected that lithium carbonate prices will weaken, with long-term supply still in surplus
According to the information from the Wise Finance APP, non-ferrous metal stocks have seen a widening decline. As of the time of publication, Ganfeng Lithium (01772) fell by 6.19% to HKD 19.84, CMOC (03993) fell by 5.9% to HKD 7.02, Jiangxi Copper (00358) fell by 5.57% to HKD 14.58, and Zijin Mining (02899) fell by 4.75% to HKD 16.46.
On the news front, due to the overall higher-than-expected US CPI in September, the bond market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by only 45 basis points by the end of the year. The options market is betting on only one more rate cut this year, possibly a 25 basis point cut before pausing until early next year. The US dollar continues its recent upward trend, reaching a 10-week high on the 14th, putting pressure on commodities priced in US dollars, including precious metals.
Huatai Securities pointed out that policies continue to exert force, but at the current price levels, the fundamental situation of copper, aluminum, and other varieties may show some differentiation. Investors are advised to pay attention to the risk of high copper prices suppressing demand. In terms of precious metals, the market is betting that the Fed's rate cut pace in November will slow down, and gold prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term. As for lithium, according to SMM's weekly inventory sample data, domestic social inventories continue to decline, but with the slowdown in downstream peak season restocking pace, some supply-side maintenance and production cuts are nearing completion. It is expected that lithium carbonate prices may weaken, with a long-term view indicating that supply remains in surplus, and lithium prices are expected to remain weak in the long term