Epic rally in US stocks "conquering" Wall Street, strategist calls for a target of 6100 points

According to the Wisdom Financial APP, with the strongest rebound in the U.S. stock market in nearly 30 years, Wall Street strategists have raised their forecasts for the U.S. stock market.

Strategists from BMO Capital Markets, Goldman Sachs, and UBS have raised their year-end targets for the S&P 500 index in the past month, expecting the index to continue its upward trend. The S&P 500 index has risen by 22% so far this year.

These actions reflect the unexpected rise in U.S. stocks this year, as the U.S. economy and corporate profits have performed surprisingly well, and investors continue to flock to technology stocks expected to benefit from the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. Since the formation of the Internet bubble in 1997, the S&P 500 index has outperformed previous years' levels so far this year.

The significant increase has prompted Wall Street forecasters to rush to raise their forecasts for the final period of 2024 - the so-called "strategist short squeeze," similar to the situation where a rapid rise in stock prices forces traders to close out their bearish bets. Last year's 24% increase in the S&P 500 index also caught strategists off guard.

With the S&P 500 index holding above 5800 points, UBS strategists Jonathan Golub and Patrick Palfrey raised their year-end forecast for the index from 5600 points to 5850 points on Tuesday, while also increasing their 2025 forecast from 6000 points to 6400 points. Although their forecast for 2024 implies that the S&P 500 index will not rise further this year, they expect the index to rise by another 9% over the next 15 months. This is the fourth time UBS strategists have raised their expectations for the index since the release of their annual outlook at the end of last year.

Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs' Chief Equity Strategist David Kostin raised the year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 6000 points. This is the fourth time he has raised his forecast since the last few months of 2023, and among Bloomberg-tracked forecasters, he ranks second in year-end forecasts for the S&P 500 index. BMO's Brian Belski gave the most optimistic forecast, stating in September that the index could soar to 6100 points by the end of the year.

Strategists continue to raise their forecasts for the S&P 500 index

Belski stated when raising the forecast, "We continue to be surprised by the market's strong upward trend and have once again decided that it is necessary to take more significant action than gradual adjustments."

This optimism comes at a time when traders are facing market risks: next month's highly contested U.S. presidential election, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's accommodative policy trajectory following better-than-expected U.S. employment and inflation data last month. The S&P 500 index edged slightly lower on Tuesday after setting its 46th closing record in the previous trading session Golub said on Tuesday, "The uncertainty surrounding fiscal and monetary policies, as well as potential election outcomes, creates uncertainty for the outlook in 2025." However, this has not stopped him from betting that the stock market can continue to rise, pointing out that due to slowing inflation, Fed rate cuts, improvements in lower-end consumer and business activities, and strong profits, the risk tends to be on the upside.

Confidence in the stock market's ability to withstand imminent uncertainties comes from experience. Many strategists have repeatedly underestimated the stock market's gains.

In January this year, strategists had an average year-end expectation for the S&P 500 index at 4867 points, about 17% lower than the index's level on Tuesday. At the beginning of 2023, strategists predicted 4050 points, which was 15% lower than the actual level at the end of that year