Track Hyper | Intel teams up with AMD for the first time: aiming at ARM

Author: Zhou Yuan / Wall Street News

Intel and AMD, the "arch-enemies", surprisingly shake hands and make peace, "united front"!

This happened at Lenovo Tech World 2024 in Seattle, North America on October 15th.

AMD CEO Lisa Su and Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger jointly announced the establishment of a new x86 ecosystem advisory group with the other party, aiming to shape the future of x86, likely to defend the interests of x86 against ARM. Participating members of this group also include Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Lenovo.

x86 vs ARM, who will prevail?

Rare Collaboration of Arch-Enemies: The Enemy is ARM

As the biggest beneficiary of the x86 architecture, Intel attaches great importance to this group. Gelsinger stated that x86 technology can easily adapt to new AI terminal application demands such as AI-enabled laptops.

"The rumors about Intel's 'death' have been greatly exaggerated. We are doing just fine," Gelsinger said. "We see that the x86 architecture is thriving, and we are about to enter one of the most important periods of innovation for the X86 architecture. As the X86 architecture, the foundation of computing for decades, is about to undergo a period of customization, expansion, and scalability brought by artificial intelligence. Our ecosystem is strong and constantly evolving."

Intel, the inventor of the x86 architecture with a history of 46 years, is primarily used for general computing in PCs and data centers (IDC). Intel and AMD are the "only two" authorized vendors of x86 architecture mass-produced CPUs, thus forming a "dual peak confrontation" pattern in the development process.

Intel was founded a year earlier than AMD, in 1968, Intel was established; a year later, AMD was also established.

The founders of these two companies both came from Fairchild Semiconductor. Intel's founders include Gordon Moore, who proposed Moore's Law, and Robert Noyce, the father of integrated circuits, while AMD's founder is Jerry Sanders, a sales executive at Fairchild.

In the subsequent development process, apart from initially gaining a larger market advantage due to higher investment and time, Intel, unwilling to see AMD grow stronger, stopped the technical authorization to AMD, leading to a rift between the two sides.

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, AMD's K7 and K8 processors were technologically ahead of Intel; Intel rose up and gradually regained the upper hand with the famous "Tick-Tock strategy" in 2005, surpassing AMD in product performance once again.

In recent years, AMD and Intel each have their own strengths: Intel has a greater technological advantage over AMD in PCs, especially laptops, while AMD excels in the server market, especially in the AI server field, far surpassing Intel in overall performance in the x86 architecture ecosystem However, no matter how they compete, their CPU architectures both adopt the x86 instruction set, and they have to pay attention to the potential and gradually explicit threats from Apple and Qualcomm, which adopt the ARM architecture.

This is the reality basis for the cooperation declaration made by both parties at Lenovo Tech World 2024.

How does ARM threaten the existing commercial interests of x86 architecture?

Because ARM licenses competitive computing architectures to companies such as Apple, Qualcomm, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google. Qualcomm is vigorously promoting the X Elite based on the ARM architecture, while Apple is doing similar things with their M series chips, targeting PCs. Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and others are expanding their data center business with ARM-based CPUs.

The so-called threat is actually because ARM has adopted a similar software "bundling" rule as NVIDIA: all ARM chips can run all ARM software, regardless of the chip manufacturer.

However, Intel and AMD have not adopted this approach, resulting in terminals with CPUs from these two having to make adjustments to run applications smoothly. This creates differences in experience and cost, making applications not "smooth and seamless."

At the Lenovo Tech Summit in Seattle, Basins said, "Intel and AMD announced the formation of an x86 ecosystem advisory group. For this, Dr. Lisa Su and I have reached a consensus, we believe now is the best time."

Lenovo is also a member of this group, and its importance may come from the traditional "mediation" color that Chinese people have. Because Basins said, "Whether it's Lisa or me, what better stage than Lenovo's to announce this?"

This ecosystem group involves many parties and holds a prominent position in the x86 ecosystem, bringing together leaders from the entire ecosystem. Its purpose is to shape the future of x86, simplify software development, ensure interoperability and interface consistency, and provide developers with standard architecture tools, instruction sets, and a clear outlook for the future.

According to the announcement of the x86 ecosystem advisory group, it will convene hardware and software companies to obtain their technical opinions on the "basic functions and features" of Intel and AMD chips to ensure they are "consistent and compatible" for a range of purposes.

Clearly, Lenovo, including Intel and AMD, have realized that the value of a thriving ecosystem is more important than ever.

New Goal: Capture the PC Chip Market

ARM's strategic threat to the ecosystem formed by upstream chip designers adopting x86 architecture and B-end companies such as PC and IDC using x86 architecture is rapidly shaking the foundation of the x86 ecosystem.

ARM was founded much later than Intel and AMD, in 1990, by 12 chip designers.

What year was 1990? The term "Wintel" was officially proposed in 1990, although the "Wintel Alliance" actually started in 1981.

In 1981, IBM introduced the industry's first personal computer, which used Microsoft's DOS operating system and Intel's x86 chip, marking the beginning of the Wintel alliance cooperation Therefore, at the beginning of its establishment, ARM set its technical route and goals to develop processor devices that can use low-cost batteries.

In 1993, ARM reached an agreement with Texas Instruments to apply its processors to early Nokia phones, which eventually evolved into the dominant architecture for smartphones today.

Today, especially after Apple introduced the revolutionary iPhone, ARM has taken the absolute leadership position in smartphone chip architecture.

If Intel's rise initially benefited from IBM and later from Microsoft, then Apple is clearly the benefactor of ARM.

Apple's launch of the iPhone reshaped the entire mobile ecosystem and industry, establishing ARM's dominant position in the mobile sector. Subsequently, Apple began to target the PC market in 2020, abandoning the x86 Intel chips used in Mac computers for 16 years and switching to its own ARM-based processors. This move has put pressure on Intel and AMD, which use x86 architecture.

According to a forecast by TechInsights, the challenge posed by ARM architecture to x86's long-standing dominance in the laptop market is becoming stronger.

TechInsights predicts that by 2025, ARM will account for 20% of global laptop shipments; by 2029, this share is expected to reach 40%. Driven by Apple's high-value products, ARM's revenue share in the laptop market is projected to reach 52%.

ARM architecture is renowned for its low-power design and high energy efficiency, making it popular in mobile devices and embedded systems.

In recent years, ARM architecture has made significant progress in performance, with some high-end ARM processors now comparable to mid-range x86 processors.

This change means that downstream ecosystems no longer simply consider platform choices when it comes to performance. The rise of ARM architecture will have a profound impact on the entire laptop market, beyond just the convenience of open applications mentioned earlier.

According to the latest data from Mercury Research, ARM-based systems currently account for over 10% of PC client sales. However, ARM's ambitions go beyond this. In June of this year, Arm Holdings CEO Rene Hass stated that ARM aims to capture over 50% of the Windows PC market within five years.

ARM: The Advantage is Ours!

If Apple and Qualcomm's impact on x86 comes from external sources, then the staunch supporter from within the x86 camp—Microsoft—Intel's closest partner, has surprisingly turned against it. This move undoubtedly signals the death knell for the x86 architecture.

Microsoft and Intel once dominated the global PC market for over twenty years with the "Wintel alliance," the most successful technology alliance in the PC industry. However, Microsoft is now pushing for the dissolution of the "Wintel alliance."

A report from Omdia indicates that the shipment volume of Microsoft's ARM chip architecture AI laptops will surge from 800,000 units in 2024 to 58.8 million units in 2029, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) as high as 136% from 2024 to 2029 Of particular note, the AI notebook with Microsoft ARM chip architecture is expected to achieve a 534% annual growth rate in shipments by 2025.

Since the introduction of ChatGPT-3.5, the GenAI (Generative Artificial Intelligence) technology is accelerating the reshaping of the terminal landscape, including PCs. This also affects the current and future interests of x86 giants benefiting from the traditional PC ecosystem.

Currently, companies like Apple and Qualcomm are driving chip products based on ARM architecture, such as Apple's M-series chips and ARM architecture AI PC products launched in collaboration with multiple manufacturers by Qualcomm. These actions indicate that ARM architecture is gaining support from industry leaders and gradually gaining a foothold in the market.

The compatibility of chip products based on ARM architecture among different manufacturers is better, undoubtedly posing a greater challenge to x86. In comparison, although products from AMD and Intel also have cross-compatibility, they are far from achieving the universal compatibility of ARM.

In addition to the drastic changes in the PC market, news from the server market is also unfavorable to x86 architecture.

According to a report released by Bernstein Research in 2023, nearly 10% of servers worldwide contain ARM processors. Meanwhile, Amazon has deployed over 50% of ARM server CPUs in its Amazon Web Services (AWS) data centers.

Since 1990, with the rapid rise of the mobile market, ARM has gradually accelerated its development in the mobile, low-power IoT, and automotive professional embedded fields. It has then rapidly penetrated from the mobile market towards the PC and server markets based on x86 architecture. The next generation of AI servers, AI personal computers, and of course, the smartphone market with GenAI technology overlaid, are all unfolding based on ARM architecture.

The recent joint announcement by Intel and AMD to establish a new x86 ecosystem advisory group is actually a strong response to the increasingly powerful "pressure" from ARM. This also indirectly indicates that in the century-long duel that has just begun between ARM and x86 architectures, ARM's advantage is more pronounced, while Intel and AMD have adopted a strategy of defense as offense.

The 19th-century British politician Henry John Temple once said: "We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow."

There are no eternal friends or enemies between nations, only eternal interests, and it is our duty to pursue these interests!

This statement also applies to the game of interests in business companies. In this life-and-death duel that concerns the future, who will emerge victorious, time will provide the ultimate answer