Breakfast | ASML continues to fall by over 6%, NVIDIA rises by over 3%, Dow hits a new high, small caps rise

Market Overview

U.S. stocks rose, with the Dow hitting a new high and the S&P 500 approaching a new high. Investors withdrew from mega-cap stocks, rotating to boost small-cap stocks to nearly a three-year high. NVIDIA rose over 3%, nearing a new high. ASML, which bombed in the previous financial report, continued to decline, with ASML's U.S. stocks falling over 6%, hitting a nearly one-year low. The bank stock index rose over 2% at one point, with Morgan Stanley soaring 6.5% after its financial report, reaching a new high. LVMH European stocks fell by 7.5% at one point. AI nuclear stocks surged, with companies invested in by OpenAI CEO Altman, such as Oklo, rising by nearly 42%.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4% at one point, hitting a one-and-a-half-week low. The U.S. dollar reached nearly an 11-week high.

Chinese concept stocks rose over 2% at one point, with JD.com rising by 3.9% at one point, while Nio fell by nearly 2%. Offshore RMB rose to nearly 7.12 before erasing gains.

UK CPI in September fell below the central bank's target for the first time in three and a half years, with rate cut expectations pushing the pound to a two-month low. UK stocks rose by nearly 1%, while UK bond yields plummeted by double digits.

U.S. oil fell by over 1% at one point, breaking below $70 again, but the closing decline narrowed significantly. Gold approached historic highs. Bitcoin rose above $68,000 for the first time since July during intraday trading.

Stock News

AI Nuclear Stocks Surge, Altman-backed Company Oklo Soars 40%

Amazon has become the latest tech giant to bet on nuclear energy, including investing over $500 million in developing small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs). Google also signed a power purchase agreement with a U.S. nuclear energy company on Monday, showing optimism for "fast and safe" power supply from SMRs. Companies developing new nuclear technologies, such as Oklo invested in by OpenAI CEO Altman and NuScale Power, surged by about 40% on Wednesday.

Morgan Stanley Stock Price Surges 6.5%, Exceeding Expectations

Morgan Stanley's Q3 net revenue exceeded expectations, with strong performance in wealth management, trading, and banking businesses, pushing the stock price to a new high. The company's net revenue in the third quarter was $15.38 billion, higher than the expected $14.35 billion, with revenues from wealth management, trading, and investment banking all surpassing expectations. The Fed may start lowering interest rates this quarter, which could encourage Wall Street firms to engage in more financing and M&A activities.

ASML Earnings Call: Slow Recovery in Chip Industry Demand, Blames Intel for Poor Performance

ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet stated that while AI continues to be seen as a key driver of industry recovery with potential upside, the recovery in other areas is slower than expected, leading to "more cautious customers and delayed investment plans," especially in the slow recovery of demand in the automotive, mobile device, and personal computer markets. He also mentioned that ASML will slow down short-term investment plans to adapt to market demand.

Wall Street attributes ASML's financial report debacle to Intel. Morgan Stanley analysis believes that Intel, a key customer of ASML, may be the key factor in the slowdown in demand, with delays in new nodes also affecting capacity expansion. Although spending related to HBM and DDR5 continues, these cannot offset the weakness in the logic chip demand field, as they do not rely on EUV as much as logic chips do

Geopolitical Situation

Media reports that Israel is ready to retaliate against Iran's plan, while oil prices continue to fall for the fourth consecutive time. US officials expect Israel to take retaliatory action against the early-month attacks before the November 5th US election.

"Drone intrusion incident" escalates tensions on the Korean Peninsula: North Korean forces are in "full combat readiness," while the South Korean military issues "firepower standby" guidelines. According to the Global Times, South Korea has been dropping anti-North Korea leaflets via balloons, to which North Korea responds by floating "garbage balloons" towards South Korea. Unlike South Korea's balloon leaflets to North Korea, North Korea categorizes drone infiltration as a "military attack" because South Korea's drones reached the Pyongyang central district where the headquarters of the Workers' Party of Korea is located.

Macro Information

Important Real Estate Industry Meeting Held on Thursday Morning at 10 AM

The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Natural Resources, People's Bank of China, and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission will jointly hold a press conference to introduce the relevant situation of promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, and answer questions from reporters. Attention will be on whether there are new wordings between adhering to "housing is for living, not for speculation" and "stabilizing prices," as well as how to find a new balance between the challenging tasks of destocking in the real estate market and increasing affordable housing construction. In addition, the market may inquire about how and when the real estate value-added tax reduction mentioned by the Ministry of Finance will be implemented.

Ministry of State Security: Overseas Company Conducts Illegal Mapping under the Cover of Smart Driving Research

The national security agency found that Company A, under the guise of smart driving research, led the mapping project throughout various provinces in China by directly instructing personnel from Company B, bypassing subcontracting layers. Company A even specially assigned foreign technical experts to provide practical guidance to Company B's mapping personnel, focusing on controlling the storage, processing, and circulation of mapping data. Finally, under the control and direction of Company A, Company B transferred the mapping data obtained overseas.

Tesla, ZEEKR, and NavInfo have all denied any involvement in the illegal mapping activities of the overseas company.

Trump Boasts about Tariffs, Criticizes the Federal Reserve

Trump confronts the media: Your statements about "tariffs, deficits, interest rates, and the US dollar" are all wrong. Trump repeatedly refutes economists' predictions and financial media statements, stating, "You have been wrong all your life." Trump calls tariffs the "most beautiful words in the dictionary" and asserts that the president has the right to tell the Fed chairman how interest rates should change.

Trump threatens to impose comprehensive tariffs on imported cars, targeting Europe and Mexico directly. Trump states that he wants to impose heavy taxes on imported cars from Europe and impose tariffs of up to 2000% on cars imported from Mexico to force production back to the US. Economists warn that this approach may trigger a new inflation spiral.

Fund Managers "Bullish" on Chinese Economy and Stocks, Global Stock Markets Show Sell Signals

A global survey conducted by Bank of America in October shows that after a series of stimulus measures in China, the net percentage of global fund managers expecting a stronger Chinese economy in the next 12 months has reached 48%, the highest since April 2023. However, it is worth noting that global stock markets have just triggered a sell signal from Bank of America for the first time since February 2021 Investors are showing optimism, expecting a solid global economic foundation.

Goldman Sachs Trading Department: Expects S&P 500 Index to Rise to 6270 Points by the End of the Year

The S&P 500 Index has hit new highs 46 times at the close this year, and Goldman Sachs' trading team believes this trend is likely to continue into the last few months of 2024. Scott Rubner, Managing Director of Global Markets at the bank and a tactical expert, predicts that this U.S. stock benchmark index may close the year well above 6,000 points. Based on data dating back to 1928, he calculated that the median historical return of the S&P 500 Index from October 15 to December 31 is 5.17%. The median return during election years is even slightly higher at around 7%, indicating a year-end level of 6,270 points.

Key Financial Calendar Outlook

TSMC, Netflix, and Blackstone to announce earnings.

U.S. September retail sales