Overnight US Stocks | Dow Jones, Gold Hit New Highs; Taiwan Semiconductor Up 10%, Netflix Q3 Users Exceed Expectations, Up 5% After Hours

According to the financial news, strong retail sales reports have led traders to reduce their bets on the Fed's interest rate cuts this year, causing US Treasury yields to rise. Economic data has raised doubts in the market about how quickly the Fed will relax its policies. The US stock market closed on Thursday, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.37%, the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq nearly flat.

Futures contracts indicate that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by a total of 42 basis points during the November and December meetings. The rise in the S&P 500 index came to a halt after reaching a historic high. Netflix's stock price rose after announcing its financial report, with new users exceeding expectations.

The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 7 basis points to 4.09%. The euro fell as traders increased bets that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates significantly in December. The yen exchange rate fell to the key psychological level of 150 yen to the dollar, with the risk of Japanese intervention once again becoming a focus of attention.

[US Stocks] The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 161.35 points, or 0.37%, at 43,239.05 points; the S&P 500 index closed down 1.00 point, or 0.02%, at 5,841.47 points; the Nasdaq Composite index closed up 6.53 points, or 0.04%, at 18,373.61 points. Nvidia (NVDA.US) rose by nearly 1%, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US) rose by 9.7%, stabilizing at a trillion-dollar market value. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index fell by 3.6%, Alibaba (BABA.US) fell by 2%, and Li Auto (LI.US) fell by over 5%.

[European Stocks] The German DAX30 index closed up 133.86 points, or 0.69%, at 19,584.65 points; the UK's FTSE 100 index closed up 56.42 points, or 0.68%, at 8,385.49 points; the French CAC40 index closed up 91.73 points, or 1.22%, at 7,583.73 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 index closed up 39.54 points, or 0.81%, at 4,948.25 points; the Spanish IBEX35 index closed down 85.95 points, or 0.72%, at 11,910.75 points; the Italian FTSE MIB index closed up 389.00 points, or 1.12%, at 35,049.00 points.

[Asia-Pacific Stock Markets] The Nikkei 225 index fell by 0.69%, the Indonesia Jakarta Composite Index rose by 1.13%, and the Vietnam VN30 index rose by 0.55%.

[Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin fell by 1.2% to $66,821.87 per coin; Ethereum fell by 0.9% to $2,595.23 per coin.

[Gold] COMEX December gold futures rose by 0.6% to $2,707.60 per ounce; spot gold rose by 0.7% to $2,692.07 per ounce.

[Crude Oil] WTI November crude oil futures closed up $0.28, or about 0.40%, at $70.67 per barrel. Brent December crude oil futures closed up $0.23, or about 0.31%, at $74.45 per barrel 【Metals】 London metals fell across the board, with London zinc down 0.11%, London nickel down 0.06%, London aluminum up 0.10%, and London copper down 0.18%.

【Macro News】

U.S. retail data beats expectations, "control group" hits three-month high. In September, U.S. retail sales growth exceeded economists' expectations under the drive of broad-based consumer spending, indicating that despite long-term pressure from high interest rates, U.S. consumer spending remains resilient, continuing to provide strong momentum for the U.S. economy. The latest data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Thursday showed that U.S. retail sales, excluding inflation adjustments, unexpectedly rose by 0.4% month-on-month in September (economists had expected 0.3%), following a 0.1% increase in August. Excluding auto and gas station sales, retail sales increased by 0.7%. The so-called "control group sales" in September (an item used by the U.S. government to calculate GDP commodity expenditure) also surged by 0.7% month-on-month, reaching the highest level in three months. It is reported that out of the 13 categories in the latest retail data report, 10 categories showed growth, mainly led by grocery retailers, including flower shops and pet stores.

Market Analysis: Worst impact of hurricanes on the U.S. Southeast job market may have passed. Last week, initial jobless claims in the U.S. unexpectedly declined, but under the influence of hurricanes Helene and Milton, they may remain at high levels in the short term, making the labor market outlook uncertain. The U.S. Department of Labor stated on Thursday that as of the week ending October 12, initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 19,000 to 241,000. The most severe impact of recent hurricanes on the labor market in the U.S. Southeast may have already passed. In the week ending October 12, the number of people in Florida and North Carolina who filed for initial jobless claims in advance decreased compared to the previous week. Previously, due to the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton, the number of initial jobless claims in these two states increased significantly in the week ending October 5. However, the U.S. Department of Labor warned that the number of people filing for initial jobless claims in advance cannot be directly compared to the number of initial jobless claims in the previous week, as there may be differences in the location attribution of the claimants.

U.S. industrial output falls in September, reversing August's growth. Data released by the Federal Reserve on Thursday showed that U.S. industrial output fell by 0.3% last month. Economists surveyed by institutions had previously expected a 0.2% decline in this data. The growth rate of industrial production in August was also revised down to 0.3%, lower than the previous estimate of 0.8%. In September, manufacturing output fell by 0.4%, mining output fell by 0.6%, but utility output increased by 0.7%. The U.S. industrial capacity utilization rate in September was 77.5%, lower than the 77.8% in August. The data shows that U.S. industrial capacity has grown by 1.2% over the past 12 months.

Latest Fed tool shows ample reserve levels, implying QT can continue. According to a monthly indicator first released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the reserve level in the U.S. banking system remains ample. The first reserve demand elasticity indicator released by the New York Fed on Thursday showed that as of October 11, bank reserve levels remained sufficient This data is the latest evidence that the Federal Reserve can continue to reduce liquidity in the financial system through Quantitative Tightening (QT), a move anticipated by Wall Street strategists.

US Homebuilders' Confidence Rises for the Second Consecutive Month. US homebuilders' confidence rose for the second consecutive month in October, but fluctuating mortgage rates and lower housing affordability continue to pose challenges. The US NAHB Housing Market Index rose from 41 in September to 43 in October. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates to a range of 5.25%-5.50% between 2022 and 2023 to curb high inflation, leading to a slowdown in the real estate market. However, mortgage rates have been declining since the beginning of the rate-cutting cycle. Last month, the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points, exceeding the expected 25 basis points. NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz stated in a release, "It is expected that mortgage rates will unevenly decline over the next few quarters, which will improve housing demand, but tight lending conditions for development and construction loans will put pressure on land supply."

Weak Economy in Urgent Need of Stimulus, ECB Announces Third Rate Cut of the Year. The European Central Bank cut rates for the third time this year, as accelerating inflation allows it to support the struggling economy of the Eurozone. On Thursday, the ECB lowered the key deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, in line with all analysts' expectations. The ECB stated that the process of controlling prices is "on track," but did not provide any clues as to when or at what pace it will continue to lower borrowing costs. Analysts noted that it was interesting that ECB President Lagarde described the decision to cut rates by 25 basis points today as unanimous. However, after the September meeting, almost no one expected a rate cut. The European economic situation is changing rapidly. Following Lagarde's comments, the euro continued to fall, breaking below 1.0830 against the US dollar for the first time since August 2. Perhaps this is a signal for spot traders to wait for a new shorting opportunity. The money market has increased expectations of easing by one to two basis points at the December and January meetings. Deutsche Bank stated that the ECB's consecutive rate cuts on Thursday are significant and may indicate a shift towards accelerated easing by the ECB.

[Stock News]

After-Hours Surge of Nearly 5%! Netflix (NFLX.US) Adds Over 5 Million Users in Q3, Performance Exceeds Expectations Across the Board. Data shows that the company's Q3 revenue increased by 15% year-on-year to $9.83 billion, beating market expectations; earnings per share rose to $5.40, also exceeding market expectations. Netflix added over 5 million users in the third quarter, with all major financial indicators surpassing Wall Street's expectations, despite the impact of last year's Hollywood strike on the company's new program plans. Analysts had previously expected Netflix to add 4.52 million users.

Chip Industry Receives a "Boost"! Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US) Sees 54% Profit Surge in Q3, Stock Rises Nearly 10%. Due to strong sales of NVIDIA's AI chips offsetting weakness in the mobile chip sector, Taiwan Semiconductor saw a 54% increase in profit in the third quarter. The major chip manufacturer for NVIDIA and Apple (AAPL.US) reported a net profit of NT$325.3 billion (approximately $10.1 billion) in the third quarter, surpassing analysts' average expectation of NT$299.3 billion Revenue growth was 39% during the same period. The company also raised its revenue expectations for 2024 in July, emphasizing the continued spending expectations on artificial intelligence infrastructure by companies such as Microsoft (MSFT.US) and Amazon (AMZN.US). The steady adoption of artificial intelligence is also expected to drive sales of iPhones and other electronic products.

In the third quarter, revenue exceeded expectations and the company announced the issuance of billions of shares, leading to an 18% drop in Lucid Group (LCID.US). Luxury electric vehicle manufacturer Lucid Group fell by about 18% on Thursday, announcing a public offering of nearly 262.5 million shares to raise funds. Major shareholders, the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) and Ayar (an affiliate of PIF, Ayar Third Investment Company), will purchase over 370 million additional shares, with Ayar's ownership expected to remain around 58.8%. Lucid Group preliminarily estimated third-quarter revenue at $199-200 million, with analysts expecting $196.4 million; third-quarter vehicle production was 1,805 units, deliveries were 2,781 units, compared to analysts' expectations of 2,334 units; and the preliminary operating loss for the third quarter was $765,000-$790,000.

Blackstone (BX.US) rose over 6%: Q3 profit increased by 5.5% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, with the credit department becoming the largest business in the company. Blackstone achieved profit growth in the third quarter, driven by an influx of investor funds into its credit department, which has become the company's largest business in terms of asset size. The bank's financial report released on Thursday showed a 5.5% year-on-year increase in distributable earnings, reaching $1.28 billion, boosted by its loan department. This profit figure translated to $1.01 per share, surpassing the average analyst expectation of $0.91. Over the three months ending September 30, the credit and insurance departments attracted $21.4 billion in fund inflows, accounting for more than half of all funds received by Blackstone during the same period. By the end of this quarter, credit assets accounted for $354.7 billion of Blackstone's $1.1 trillion in assets, surpassing real estate to become the largest asset. The company also decided to reclassify some real estate loan operations as credit operations