The number of initial jobless claims in the United States has decreased for the second consecutive week, dropping to pre-hurricane levels. In the week ending October 19, it decreased by 15,000 to 227,000, lower than the economists' forecast of 242,000. Although the number of continued jobless claims has increased to nearly 1.9 million, the highest in nearly three years, the overall employment situation has slightly improved. Economists point out that the impact of hurricanes is fading quickly, and the Boeing strike may affect the data. Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have strengthened
According to Zhitong Finance, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States has decreased for the second consecutive week, dropping to the level before hurricanes "Helen" and "Milton" hit the southeastern states of the United States. In the week ending October 19, initial jobless claims decreased by 15,000 to 227,000, with economists predicting a median of 242,000.
Stephen Stanley, Chief U.S. Economist at Santander US Capital Markets, stated in a report, "The impact of Hurricane Helen seems to be dissipating faster than feared, which is a positive sign that the economic impact of the hurricane has not spread rapidly throughout the region."
The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims rose to 238,500, an indicator that helps eliminate volatility. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday showed that continued jobless claims increased to nearly 1.9 million people in the previous week, the highest level in nearly three years.
The number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits has increased, raising the risk of an increase in the unemployment rate this month. The "Beige Book" report released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday stated that employment "edged up" at the beginning of October, with over half of the regions reporting slight or moderate growth, while the remaining regions reported little to no change.
Although traditionally an increase in initial jobless claims indicates increased difficulty in finding work, the recent data may reflect the impact of these two storms. Economists say that the ongoing strike at Boeing (BA.US) for several weeks may also have blurred the signal of the data. On Wednesday, about 33,000 factory workers refused to sign a new labor contract, and the strike continues.
Before adjusting for seasonal factors, initial jobless claims in North Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee, which were affected by Hurricane Helen last week, decreased. The report also shows a significant decrease in initial jobless claims in Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan; previously, these states had seen an increase in jobless claims against the backdrop of recent manufacturing layoffs.
U.S. Treasury yields were boosted by the lack of significant layoffs in the data. The initial jobless claims data support the market's expectation of a gradual interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The "Fed Watch" tool at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November has increased from 92% yesterday to 97% now. The U.S. dollar index has also slightly rebounded, with the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields rising slightly above their pre-announcement levels