Wall Street executives believe that the U.S. election and geopolitical tensions (such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East wars) are causing investors to remain cautious. Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf pointed out that the uncertainty of the election is causing people to wait and see, affecting corporate confidence and loan demand. Many companies are delaying transformational transactions, waiting for the new government's policies to become clear. An IMF report shows that half of the global population will elect a new government in 2024, and policy uncertainty may have economic consequences. Despite concerns, some executives are optimistic about the economic activity rebounding after the election
Bank executives in Washington gathered on Wednesday and Thursday. They generally believe that questions about the direction of the U.S. election, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the Middle East war have made investors cautious.
Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf said, "The uncertainty surrounding the election is making people a bit cautious."
"When we look at loan demand and business confidence, we see that people want to understand where we are going and what the actual policies will be after the election cycle," he added.
Investment bankers and lawyers told Reuters last month that companies are beginning to postpone plans for transformational deals until after the U.S. presidential election, as they hope for more certainty in the new government's regulatory and economic policies.
New York Bank CEO Robin Vince agreed with this view, adding that clients want to wait for clearer prospects before making major decisions.
Democratic vice presidential candidate Harris and her rival, former Republican President Trump, are locked in a fierce battle for control of the White House.
Tim Adams, CEO of the Institute of International Finance, said that the election results will not only affect fiscal, trade, and technology policies, but also relations between the United States and other countries, which is causing concern among investors.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) pointed out in a report this week that half of the world's population has already or will elect a new government by 2024.
In many cases, the policy plans of these new leaders are not clear, but they will have significant economic consequences.
Wall Street executives are concerned that Trump's plans to raise import tariffs could reignite inflation, while his promised tax cuts could widen the U.S. deficit.
However, they also note that with the clarity of policies after the U.S. election on November 5th, there is some optimism about the recovery of economic activity. Bankers hope to see a rebound in demand and investment next year.
"I do believe there will be some investment rebound after the election," said Ana Botin, Executive Chairman of Santander Bank.
Geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the Middle East have also heightened uncertainty, causing investors to hesitate.
"This uncertainty may diminish over time... but the reality is not so, there is a risk of mistakes, just as there was when World War II broke out," said Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan