The U.S. stock market's rally expands beyond non-tech stocks, but will the earnings season bring different answers?

Despite the decline in large-cap tech stocks, the seemingly unstoppable U.S. stock market continues to rise, with gains spreading to sectors such as real estate that struggled in the first half of this year.

However, corporate profits tell a different story. This raises a question about how long this breadth of momentum can be sustained. Matt Maley, Chief Market Strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., said, "In terms of the stock market's performance, the rebound may broaden, but based on overall earnings, the rebound will not expand."

Earnings for S&P 500 index component companies are expected to increase by 4.3% compared to the same period last year. However, data shows that excluding the so-called seven tech giants - Alphabet (GOOGL.US), Amazon (AMZN.US), Apple (AAPL.US), Meta (META.US), Microsoft (MSFT.US), NVIDIA (NVDA.US), and Tesla (TSLA.US) - profit expectations show zero growth. If the broader technology and communication sectors are excluded, the expected growth rate turns negative.

This outlook indicates how much U.S. companies still rely on the "tech profit machine"; it also shows that the pressure on other industries is increasing, at least needing to fill some gaps.

Scott Chronert, Head of U.S. Stock Strategy Research at Citigroup, said, "The strongest profit growth still comes from technology and communication services, as well as some non-essential consumer goods industries. We need to have confidence in the continued growth of 'growth' industry earnings and the ongoing improvement in trends in other industries."

But looking at the stock market performance, it seems as if investors believe that other stock sectors have already delivered strong results. While large tech companies drove the S&P 500 index higher in the first half of the year, pushing its market valuation to record highs, the situation changed in the third quarter as other sectors outperformed the growth giants.

In the third quarter of this year, the Bloomberg Magnificent Index lagged behind the S&P 500 equal-weighted index for the first time since 2022. In the S&P 500 equal-weighted index, the weight of each stock is the same regardless of the company's market value. In the S&P 500 index, the utilities, real estate, and financial sectors have been dominant since early July, while the information technology and communication services sectors have seen almost no growth

Tech Stocks Expected to Drive Profit Growth

However, the financial reports show a different situation, with technology and telecommunications remaining the main drivers of growth. Wall Street analysts expect the "Magnificent Seven" to see a profit growth of over 18% year-on-year in the third quarter. Compared to the 37% year-on-year growth in the second quarter, this growth rate has significantly decreased, but still outperforms the S&P 500 index, where other component stocks are expected to remain relatively flat. In fact, according to compiled data, if the technology and telecommunications industries are excluded, the profit growth of S&P 500 index component companies is expected to decline.

Michael O'Rourke, Chief Market Strategist at Jonestrading Institutional, stated: "Although the S&P 500 index, excluding the Magnificent Seven, did not show profit growth, its valuation attractiveness is much greater. The Magnificent Seven need to live up to people's high expectations in order to maintain their high valuations."

In fact, Information Technology and Communication Services are the only industries in the S&P 500 index expected to achieve double-digit percentage growth in earnings per share in the third quarter. Data shows that the sector index as a whole is expected to grow earnings per share by 4.3%, with the S&P 500 index third-quarter EPS expectation at $60.26, with over half coming from the information technology industry.

The same goes for revenue. In this scenario, Information Technology is the only industry expected to achieve double-digit percentage growth in the third quarter. According to data compiled by a business think tank, the revenue growth rate of S&P 500 index component companies is expected to be 5.1%, or 4.4% if excluding technology stocks.

More importantly, the outlook for large tech companies is considered strong, which is of great interest to investors. Adam Parker, Founder of Trivariate Research, stated: "Guidance for large tech companies is expected to be positive. If earnings expectations for these companies are raised after the third-quarter results are announced, it will be difficult for the S&P 500 index to decline further."

Nevertheless, the forecast for the entire market next year is still encouraging, as the Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering borrowing costs, and the U.S. economy is expected to continue growing. However, if other component stocks of the S&P index still cannot achieve this goal, the question becomes how much these companies can continue to contribute to the stock market's rise.

O'Rourke said: "In any case, the 'Magnificent Seven' should have better profit growth—they are high-quality companies, often close to monopolies. The question for investors is how much premium they should receive relative to other stocks in the market, and whether this premium will expose them to the risk of disappointment. On the other hand, as the Federal Reserve enters an easing cycle, the S&P 500 index (excluding the Magnificent Seven) should be prepared for profit recovery growth."