宏观必看图表：本周白银是否还有上涨空间？（2024/10/28）
This week, the trend of silver has been influenced by multiple factors. The central bank's gold reserves have reached the highest level since 1990, oil price expectations have been lowered to $70 per barrel, and crude oil positions remain below historical average levels. Analysts point out that the silver price has broken through $32.77, and the future trend is worth paying attention to. Overall, the impact of fiscal stimulus on the Chinese market is greater than that of monetary policy
Central Banks' Gold Reserves
Currently, central banks around the world hold 12.1% of global gold reserves, the highest level since 1990.
Oil Price Expectations
Citibank stated that the market's expectation for risk premium has decreased recently, lowering its forecast for Brent oil prices in the fourth quarter to $70 per barrel (down from $74), and reiterating its bearish forecast for the first quarter of 2025 at $65 per barrel and the second quarter at $60 per barrel.
Crude Oil Positions
Net long positions for Brent and WTI are still 2.46 million barrels (50%) lower than the average level from 2022 to 2024. Fund managers have been shorting crude oil since 2018.
Stimulus vs A-shares
Analyst: Over the past 15 years, fiscal stimulus in China (red) has generally been more impactful than monetary stimulus (blue). However, so far, almost all efforts have been on the monetary policy side. The chart below shows the average returns of the Chinese stock market after stimulus policies are announced.
Silver
Analyst: Observing the weekly silver trend chart below, we can see that the level of 26.50 has been retested twice, and there is no need for the market to touch that level again. As expected, the weekly silver price has broken through 32.77, providing some reference for the silver trend within this week's cycle...
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