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華爾街見聞
2024.11.02 00:12

隔夜，當遠低於預期的非農新增就業數據公佈後，降息預期急升！市場的第一反應是：美國國債收益率、美元和 VIX 指數大幅下跌，股票、加密貨幣和黃金價格飆升。

但隨後，一切都開始好轉，因為交易員們意識到就業數據還不夠糟糕（扣除颶風因素）不足以引發 “增長恐慌”，但也足以給鮑威爾提供足夠的藉口在下週降息。

對 2024 年（綠線）、甚至 2025 年降息（藍線）的預期開始下降 - 回到不變（預計 2025 年底將降息 108 個基點）。

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