Media predicts the "best presidential campaign path," reminding to pay attention to the red-blue "mirage."

According to CCTV News, just after midnight on November 5th Eastern Time, voters in the small town of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, were the first to cast their votes, marking the official start of the 60th U.S. presidential election voting. This U.S. election is a showdown between Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump. U.S. media generally believe that the 2024 election is the most closely contested presidential election in recent years.

According to the final pre-election poll results released by NBC on the 3rd, Trump and Harris are tied in support at 49% each, with only 2% of voters indicating they are still undecided. Despite both camps "fervently" campaigning and "spending" billions of dollars on advertising in recent weeks, their support has only increased by one percentage point compared to the same poll in October.

Reports indicate that this unusually tight election highlights the strong polarization in today's American politics and society, with a 34 percentage point gender gap in voting tendencies between men and women. Overall, Harris's support is boosted by the issue of abortion rights and enthusiasm among Democratic voters, while Trump has an advantage on economic and cost-of-living issues. However, polls show that regardless of who wins, 60% of voters believe that American public opinion will continue to be divided. About two-thirds of voters believe that the U.S. is heading in the wrong direction.

"The polls help us understand where voters are and what issues they are considering," Christopher P. Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion and a political science professor, told The Paper. "When a closely contested election comes along, and candidates are separated by one or two percentage points, what people should be prepared for is that the victory of either candidate is reasonable."

The Road to 270 Votes

According to CNN on November 5th, in this "closely contested" election, seven swing states need to be closely monitored: Arizona and Georgia have historically been loyal supporters of the Republican Party, but both supported Biden in 2020. Four years ago, the Democrats also won Nevada, although their advantage there has been shrinking. Biden swept the "Blue Wall" states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in 2020. Trump also achieved this in 2016. However, in 2020, the only battleground Trump won was North Carolina. It is expected that the competition between the two in that state will again be very intense this year.

Analysis suggests that for Harris, if she can replicate Biden's sweep of the "Blue Wall" states from four years ago, she will almost certainly take over the White House. But if the "Blue Wall" breaks and Trump wins Pennsylvania, the situation will become more complicated.

Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes. Harris needs to win either Georgia or North Carolina, both of which have 16 electoral votes, to "make up" for the votes from Pennsylvania. If she can only win one of them, Nevada and Arizona may become decisive factors Like Harris, Trump's map also heavily relies on Pennsylvania. If he wins Pennsylvania while holding North Carolina, the former president only needs to win Georgia's electoral votes to reach 270. For Trump, a loss in Pennsylvania could mean needing cracks in the "blue wall" to appear elsewhere.

In this scenario, Trump would need to win Michigan or Wisconsin and perform well in the Sun Belt (from Georgia on the East Coast to Arizona and Nevada in the West).

Beware of "Mirages"

However, CNN also mentioned to be wary of the red and blue "mirages" that may appear in this election.

Four years ago, Trump undermined many Republican voters' confidence in mail-in ballots, leading to a "red mirage" in several key swing states during the initial hours after the polls closed—initial results showed Trump performing better than the final results due to mail-in ballots not being fully counted yet. The final results may take hours or days to be determined.

The appearance of "mirages" in elections is typically influenced by several factors, including geographic factors (smaller rural counties that tend to support Republicans report results faster due to fewer votes) and the types of ballots being counted—if early results in Michigan do not include Detroit, or if Nevada's results do not include Las Vegas.

States and counties usually count and report only one type of voting method at a time—early voting, Election Day voting, and mail-in ballots. When one party performs better in a certain voting method, such as the Democrats in mail-in voting in 2020, the results may change as election officials shift from counting one type of ballot to another.

Another factor is how mail-in ballots are handled—this also helps explain why large states like Florida can report results so quickly.

States set their own rules about when mail-in ballots can be opened. Two "blue wall" states, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, prohibit local election officials from starting to process ballots before Election Day, which slows down the counting process compared to places like Florida.

Other swing states have made changes since 2020. In Georgia, new election laws may lead to fewer mail-in ballots and more early voting—which could mean faster results. In North Carolina, mail-in ballots are no longer accepted after Election Day. And since most mail-in and early votes will be counted first in the state, North Carolina may see a "blue mirage."

In mail-in ballot-heavy Arizona, ballots are counted in the order they are received. This means that before late mail-in ballots and Election Day ballots (both of which supported Trump in 2020) are counted, Harris may appear to have a significant early lead.

The New York Times and CNN both noted to watch whether Trump will prematurely declare victory—In 2020, Trump incorrectly declared victory just after 2 a.m. the day after the election, raising doubts among his supporters about Biden's eventual win and the electoral process itself, ultimately leading to the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021

Will "Secret Voting" Have an Impact?

NBC News reported on November 3 that the upcoming U.S. presidential election highlights the strong polarization in today's American politics and society, with a 34 percentage point gender gap in voting tendencies between men and women. Overall, Harris's campaign is boosted by the issue of abortion rights and enthusiasm among Democratic voters, while Trump has the advantage on economic and cost-of-living issues.

According to The New York Times and CNN, on the 5th, in addition to the presidential election, states including Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Nebraska, and South Dakota will also vote on whether to enshrine abortion rights in their respective state constitutions.

In red states, the referendum will test whether abortion rights transcend partisan divides, as these proposals will almost certainly require Republican support to pass. In swing states, these referendums will also test the limitations of abortion rights as a motivating factor for other Democratic candidates. In Arizona and Nevada, polls show that some voters may support abortion rights while also voting for Trump for president.

This phenomenon indicates that the issue of abortion rights is becoming increasingly complex in American politics, with voters' choices potentially influenced by a broader range of political and social factors rather than being based solely on a single issue.

The New York Times pointed out that although Harris rarely mentions her female identity during the campaign, Democrats have characterized this campaign as a struggle for women's freedom and social status. They encourage women to vote for Harris, even if the men around them support Trump.

According to The Washington Post, some women supporting Harris choose to mail their ballots from others' homes to avoid conflicts with their husbands, while others silently listen to their partners' views at home but secretly decide to vote for Harris. Harris's supporter, Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin from Michigan, publicly stated during the campaign that women's voting rights are private, and no one has the right to check or inform others about whom they voted for. This phenomenon of secret voting has sparked strong opposition from conservative commentators.

Eduardo Gamarra, a political scientist at Florida International University, pointed out that a similar phenomenon has occurred among Trump supporters, and in this election, many women are secretly supporting Harris due to issues like abortion rights. While it is difficult to estimate these secret votes accurately, they may have a significant impact on the election results, especially given the clear divide in attitudes between male and female voters toward the candidates.

Author: Nan Boyi, Source: The Paper, Original Title: "Attention | Media Simulation of the 'Best Presidential Campaign Path,' Reminding to Note the Red-Blue 'Mirage'"