No matter who the winner of the U.S. election is, Bitcoin will rise?

CryptoQuant analysts have stated that if history repeats itself, whether Trump or Harris wins the U.S. presidential election, Bitcoin will rebound before the end of the year.

In a report on Tuesday, CryptoQuant analysts noted that in the past three election years, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has seen an increase by the end of the year.

Bitcoin surged over $5,000 on Wednesday, reaching a historic high of $74,998 per coin.

Analysts pointed out that in 2012 and 2016, Bitcoin rose by 22% and 37% respectively from election day to the end of the year. More importantly, during the period from election day in 2020 to the end of the year, it grew by 98%.

It is certain that these three years coincided with Bitcoin halving, where the rewards for Bitcoin mining were reduced by half, meaning miners received 50% fewer Bitcoins for validating transactions.

As a mechanism written into the Bitcoin blockchain algorithm, Bitcoin's supply cap is 21 million, and the maximum supply of Bitcoin is halved every 210,000 blocks (or approximately every four years) until the maximum supply is fully released.

The most recent Bitcoin halving occurred on November 28, 2012, July 9, 2016, May 11, 2020, and April 19 of this year.

Nevertheless, most analysts expect that if Trump wins the election, Bitcoin prices will instinctively rise, while if Harris is elected, Bitcoin prices will fall.

However, according to Bohan Jiang, head of over-the-counter options trading at Abra, the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin would be a delayed or contested election result; if the final outcome remains unknown for weeks, the market often reacts negatively to uncertainty.

"This situation could lead to risk assets being continuously sold off and increased volatility in the days leading up to the election results announcement," Jiang wrote in an email comment