Trump officially announces victory! Global financial markets are shaken, and the U.S. market shifts entirely to the "Trump trade."

As investors increasingly anticipate that Trump will win the U.S. presidential election, the dollar strengthens, and commodity prices, including oil, metals, and grains, decline. According to Fox News, Trump has secured the 270 electoral votes needed to defeat his opponent Harris, but other news outlets have yet to declare him the winner; nonetheless, Trump himself later announced his victory in the 2024 presidential campaign.

Although other news media have not declared Trump the winner, Edison Research reports that after winning the battleground states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, and maintaining leads in four other states, Trump appears poised for victory.

Secondly, the Republican Party has gained a majority in the U.S. Senate after overturning Democratic seats in West Virginia and Ohio. In the struggle for control of the House of Representatives, neither party seems to have an advantage, with the Republicans currently holding a slim majority in the House.

As global investors grow increasingly optimistic about Trump's victory, U.S. stock futures and the dollar rise, U.S. Treasury yields climb, and Bitcoin increases, with analysts and investors believing these trades benefit from Trump's win.

Commodities: Strong Dollar, Weak Commodity Prices

Wall Street strategists generally believe that Trump's tariff policies will support the dollar at least in the short term, harming currencies like the Mexican peso. The dollar index rose by 1.36% to 104.83, marking a new high since July. Under pressure from the rising dollar, prices for oil, soybeans, and copper in Asian markets fell by approximately 1.5% and more than 2%, respectively. Prices for precious metals, including gold, remained stable.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, stated: "This is the commodity market's initial reaction to the favorable preliminary results for Trump in the U.S. vote counting. The main focus is on the potential 'Trump 2.0' scenario, where we might see tariffs on Chinese goods, which would be detrimental to metals, as China is a major consumer of copper, iron ore, and steel. Oil prices are declining due to concerns about global economic growth, as tariffs are unfavorable for overall global demand."

Additionally, if the Trump administration tightens sanctions on Iranian oil exports, global oil supply could face disruptions. Iran's oil exports are approximately 1.3 million barrels per day. Saul Kavonic, senior energy analyst at MST Marquee, said: "Trump may support a tougher military stance by Israel against Iran, which could increase the risk of military escalation and affect supply in the region."

In agriculture, if Trump imposes new tariffs on Chinese goods, the farm product market will also be affected, with soybeans remaining the largest agricultural export from the U.S. to China Spot gold remained stable after reaching a historic high of $2,790.15 per ounce last Thursday. Gold is viewed as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties and typically performs well in low-interest-rate environments.

Bond Market: U.S. Treasury Yields Rise

The Federal Reserve began a two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, with expectations of another 25 basis point rate cut; however, a Trump victory could complicate the outlook for U.S. interest rates. U.S. Treasuries suffered a sharp decline, with the yield on the 30-year Treasury rising by 10 basis points and the yield on the 10-year Treasury rising by over 12 basis points, reaching a new high since July.

Analysts pointed out that Trump's tariff and immigration policies could drive up U.S. inflation. JP Morgan strategists noted that any effective measures to restrict immigration that lead to severe labor shortages could become a potential driver of inflation. Goldman Sachs economists stated that a Trump victory could lead to increased tariffs, resulting in soaring inflation.

City Index senior analyst Matt Simpson said, "Although the money market fully expects a 25 basis point rate cut, and it seems likely this week, given that Trump's policies are seen as inflationary, they may not want to send a dovish signal through a rate cut. This could put pressure on gold in the short term, although any pullback may be slight, as gold will maintain its safe-haven appeal early in Trump's presidency."

Crypto Market: Cryptocurrency Soars

As investors closely monitor the results of the U.S. presidential election, the cryptocurrency market appears to be gearing up for a Trump victory. The former president is viewed as a more favorable candidate for the broader cryptocurrency market beyond Bitcoin, as he has promised that if re-elected, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will be more friendly toward the cryptocurrency market.

According to Coin Metrics, Dogecoin surged nearly 23%, and Shiba Inu rose by 12%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price even briefly reached a new record of $75,000 before narrowing its gains, currently reported at $73,000.

Chris Chung, CEO of Titan, a decentralized exchange aggregator built on the Solana blockchain, stated, "As the cryptocurrency market experienced low volatility ahead of the election, hoping for clarity on future regulatory conditions, traders will be prepared for volatility once the results start coming in. As states announce election results, certain sectors driving price increases, such as renewed interest in meme coins, may experience significant price fluctuations."

U.S. Stock Market

Following Trump's announcement of winning the 2024 presidential election, U.S. stock index futures soared on Wednesday. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were up 1,117 points, a 2.65% increase, S&P 500 futures rose by 126 points, a 2.19% increase, and Nasdaq 100 futures were up 336 points, a 1.66% increase Other sectors with a high correlation to Trump's policies have also experienced fluctuations.

Trump Concept Stocks Rise

The stock price of Trump's media company—Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.US) performed strongly in pre-market trading, with gains expanding from overnight trading to 47%, exceeding $49 per share. Meanwhile, other Trump concept stocks also saw increases, with Phunware (PHUN.US) rising nearly 41% and Rumble (RUM.US) up over 17%.

Financial reports show that Trump Media & Technology Group reported revenue slightly above $1 million. CEO Devin Nunes emphasized in a statement that this is an extraordinary quarter, significant for the company, Truth Social users, and retail investors supporting the company's mission. It is reported that Nunes previously served as a California congressman.

Notably, during his speech, Trump spent a few minutes praising Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who has invested approximately $120 million in Trump's campaign. Trump has stated that he would appoint Musk to lead a government efficiency committee. Tesla (TSLA.US) also saw nearly a 13% increase in pre-market trading.

Wall Street Bank Stocks Rise

Major U.S. bank stocks rose in pre-market trading. JP Morgan (JPM.US) and Citigroup (C.US) increased over 5%, while Goldman Sachs (GS.US), Bank of America (BAC.US), and Wells Fargo (WFC.US) rose over 6%.

Given the Republican stance on financial deregulation, bank stocks are expected to benefit under Republican control. TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg noted that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) deregulation would be particularly advantageous for financial companies.

Seiberg recently wrote in a report to clients: "Trump is the kind of candidate you ignore what he says and focus on what you expect him to do. That’s why he promises to deregulate financial oversight, as his regulators may roll back much of the CFPB's enforcement agenda and reconsider safety and soundness changes for large banks."

Seiberg indicated that trading banks could particularly benefit from the potential reduction in capital requirements, retention of credit card late fee policies, and assistance with cryptocurrency regulation. However, he warned that Trump's tariffs and immigration plans pose downside risks that could lead to inflation.

Traditional Energy Stocks Rise

Oil, natural gas, and traditional energy companies are seen as potential beneficiaries of a Trump victory, as he vowed to lift restrictions on domestic oil production. ExxonMobil (XOM.US) rose over 2%, Chevron (CVX.US) and ConocoPhillips (COP.US) increased nearly 3%, while Devon Energy (DVN.US) and Schlumberger (SLB.US) rose nearly 5% Defense stocks and prison stocks rise

Given that people expect U.S. defense spending to be a clear priority for the Republican Party, defense stocks are expected to perform better during a Republican presidential term. Companies such as Lockheed Martin (LMT.US), Northrop Grumman (NOC.US), and Raytheon Technologies (RTX.US) have all seen increases.

Additionally, prison stocks such as GEO Group (GEO.US) and CoreCivic (CXW.US) have surged significantly in pre-market trading, with increases exceeding 20%, as strict immigration policies will benefit operators of prison facilities. Furthermore, stocks of gun manufacturers like Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI.US) and Sturm Ruger (RGR.US) have also risen.

Cannabis stocks decline

Under Democratic leadership, cannabis stocks typically perform well. Conversely, the situation is the opposite during Republican governance. Cannabis-related stocks such as Tilray Brands (TLRY.US), Canopy Growth (CGC.US), Curaleaf Holdings, and AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF have all declined in after-hours trading.

Solar stocks decline

U.S. solar stocks are falling due to concerns that a potential Trump victory could pose challenges to the Inflation Reduction Act. This act expands solar energy through tax credits, thereby driving the prosperity of clean energy in the U.S.

The Invesco Solar ETF has dropped by 7%. Solar panel manufacturers First Solar (FSLR.US) and Canadian Solar (CSIQ.US) have fallen nearly 12%. Residential solar stocks Sunrun (RUN.US) and Sunnova (NOVA.US) have declined by 14% and 15%, respectively. Inverter manufacturer Enphase (ENPH.US) is down 8%, and Nextracker (NXT.US) has dropped 13%.

The Inflation Reduction Act is one of President Biden's signature achievements, passed in 2022 without any Republican support through a party-line vote. However, the future of the Inflation Reduction Act depends not only on whether Trump can return to the White House but also on whether the Republican Party can control Congress. Currently, the Republicans have secured a majority in the Senate, while the House voting situation remains tight