Overnight, U.S. stocks "exploded," and Wall Street is bullish, with the S&P 500 projected to reach a high of 6,600 points next year
Wall Street analysts are optimistic about the U.S. stock market, predicting that the S&P 500 could reach a high of 6,600 points next year. The U.S. stock market surged significantly after Trump won the 2024 presidential election, with the three major indices hitting record highs. Goldman Sachs reiterated its forecast that the S&P 500 will reach 6,300 points within 12 months, believing that strong earnings growth will support the market. Analysts pointed out that the reduction of political uncertainty will benefit market performance, expecting the market to continue rising until 2025
According to Zhitong Finance APP, on Wednesday, after Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the U.S. stock market surged significantly, with all three major indices reaching all-time highs. Looking ahead, several analysts on Wall Street remain bullish on U.S. stocks, with some even predicting a rise to 6,600 points.
Following the announcement of the U.S. election results, Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its forecast for the S&P 500 Index to reach 6,300 points within 12 months.
The bank's outlook on U.S. stocks has not changed with Trump's election as the 47th President of the United States, expecting strong earnings growth to support market gains by 2025.
Goldman Sachs maintained its 12-month forecast for the S&P 500 Index, setting a target level of 6,300 points. The bank stated that strong profit performance will support this growth; the market is expected to continue rising until 2025. Goldman Sachs' optimistic view is supported by a forecast of 11% growth in earnings per share next year.
Goldman Sachs also mentioned the potential surge following the election, emphasizing that lower political uncertainty will have a favorable impact on the market, consistent with past presidential election years.
David Kostin, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, stated: "A key driver of the stock market recently will be the reduction of political uncertainty, a dynamic that typically brings strong year-end returns during presidential election years. With the resolution of election uncertainty, the recent resilience in economic growth data and the Federal Reserve's continued rate cuts support a healthy short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market. We believe that investors and corporate executives will now focus on four issues related to the U.S. stock market: (1) the post-election performance of the S&P 500 Index; (2) the positioning of equity investors; (3) sector rotations within the market, including those related to trade and tax policies; (4) the outlook for corporate mergers and acquisitions and IPO activity."
Goldman Sachs observed that historically, the return of the S&P 500 Index from the election day in November to the end of the year is typically around 4%. If this trend continues, the index could reach nearly 6,015 points by the end of 2024, equivalent to a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22 times.
Anthony Saglimbene, Chief Market Strategist at Ameriprise, expressed a similar view, stating that corporate fundamentals are solid, with profits expected to grow in the coming quarters, and stock prices reflecting a healthy environment.
The strategist added: "Stocks have maintained very healthy gains so far this year, and all 11 sectors are expected to achieve profit growth by 2025. Over time, normalized inflation levels should continue to alleviate pressure on consumers and businesses. Notably, lower interest rates may help boost lending activity, support business investment, and improve the affordability of high-ticket items such as homes and cars. The U.S. is making strides, and consumers/businesses are spending. Therefore, the growth trend in the U.S. remains enviable worldwide."
Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, stated in a report: "The market hates uncertainty, and now that the election is officially over, the stock market has soared today. Optimism about tax cuts, a still-dovish Federal Reserve, and potentially better economic conditions are part of it, but the reality is that the economy has been quite robust throughout the year, so this is really not new. Our view is that U.S. stocks will return to a regular bull market BMO Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer Yung-Yu Ma stated, "Favorable macro drivers remain dominant, and the prospect of a Republican sweep and tax cuts has increased market enthusiasm. In the coming weeks, more details on tariff policies or a sustained rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields may temper this sentiment, but we have been indicating for the past two years that the environment is conducive to risk-taking, and it still is."
Evercore ISI even provided a more optimistic forecast, stating that the S&P 500 index will rise to 6,600 by mid-2025, and noted that Trump's "decisive and uncontroversial" election as U.S. president, along with the possibility of a Republican landslide, "is not anyone's base case."
Evercore also mentioned that the prospect of regulatory easing supports the stock market.
JP Morgan Private Bank U.S. Investment Strategy Head Jacob Manoukian similarly pointed out favorable regulatory factors.
The bank stated, "The market's reaction to the election results has been strong, with U.S. stocks rising significantly. Small-cap stocks and regional banks have particularly benefited from investor confidence in pro-cyclical policies and potential deregulation. This reflects a broader optimism about the resilience and growth prospects of the U.S. economy, as these sectors are poised to take advantage of increased merger and acquisition opportunities and a favorable regulatory environment."
Barclays Cross Asset Research Team stated, "In the wake of a decisive presidential election, our first view of the financial markets is that the dollar has room to rebound, U.S. long-term rates are reflecting the election results more quickly, and there is a high likelihood of a rally in U.S. stocks by year-end, while European stocks, although already reflecting tariff risks, may continue to lag."
DataTrek Research co-founders Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe summarized, "Capital is rarely destroyed; it simply flows around. Capital flows within the global financial system, seeking the most popular and effective uses on a relative (rather than absolute) basis. This is the main reason why the U.S. stock market outperforms other global equities and why, despite a relatively high federal deficit, the dollar remains the world's reserve currency. This is not to say that U.S. companies are the best or that the U.S. government system is the optimal structure. Rather, both are better than most liquid alternatives."