What does "Trump 2.0" mean for tech giants? AI continues, antitrust takes a backseat, Google is in trouble, TikTok survives

The relationship between Trump and tech giants was once tense, and his victory in 2016 plunged Silicon Valley, the center of American innovation and a bastion of liberalism, into despair. Eight years later, the relationship has significantly eased, but the unpredictable Trump remains a huge uncertainty for the tech industry.

On Wednesday, following Trump's victory, many leaders of major tech companies, including Amazon founder and Executive Chairman, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, sent congratulatory messages, expressing hope for Trump's success upon his return to the White House and looking forward to collaborating with his administration.

What does Trump's victory mean for tech giants? On November 6, in a recent analysis article in The New York Times, columnist Kevin Roose delved into the impact of Trump's reelection on the tech industry.

Roose predicts that during Trump's second term, the momentum of AI development will continue or even accelerate, and the antitrust pressure on tech giants will decrease, except for Google. Additionally, TikTok is expected to survive Biden's ban, while large social media companies may lean right, like X, to avoid conflicts with the new government.

However, Goldman Sachs predicts that while the Trump administration will adopt a more lenient approach to regulatory matters, antitrust scrutiny of large tech companies will continue, especially regarding ongoing investigations and lawsuits.

AI Development Expected to Continue or Even Accelerate

Although Trump and Harris discussed artificial intelligence little during the campaign, Roose anticipates that AI development will continue or even accelerate during Trump's second term.

Roose believes that Trump will not spend much time thinking about artificial intelligence; he may even delegate it to JD Vance, who is more interested in AI, but Trump's views on AI will be influenced by those around him.

Some tech elites who support Trump, such as a16z co-founder and venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, oppose any AI regulations that could slow down industry development.

Andreessen has publicly stated that he has been a Democrat for most of his life, but he will support Trump in the 2024 presidential campaign because the Biden administration has stifled startups through excessive regulation and potentially unnecessary taxes, while a Trump administration would help innovation thrive. He disagrees with the Biden administration's plans for excessive regulation of artificial intelligence.

However, Musk is a variable. While his AI company xAI will benefit from more lenient regulations, Musk is also very concerned about the risks of AI. He has led support for the "Frontier AI Safety and Innovation Act," which would impose safety standards on AI models.

Antitrust Takes a Backseat, Except for Google

Roose predicts that the Trump administration may replace the enforcers from the Biden administration who initiated antitrust lawsuits against large tech companies, including those responsible for cases involving Amazon and Meta at the Federal Trade Commission, as well as those handling lawsuits against Apple and other companies at the Department of JusticeHowever, Roose believes that Google will not benefit from this, as pro-Trump conservatives, including JD Vance, have been angry with Google for years, claiming that Google is biased against conservatives.

Trump supported breaking up Google during his first term. However, in an interview last month, when asked whether the U.S. Department of Justice should seek to force the breakup of Google, Trump stated that while he believes some measures should be taken to make the search engine "fairer," it may not be necessary for Google's parent company Alphabet to divest some of its businesses.

Overall, Roose believes that no matter how hard Pichai tries, Google will have a tough time in the next four years.

Goldman Sachs believes that while the Trump administration will take a more lenient approach to regulatory matters, antitrust scrutiny of large tech companies will continue. Goldman Sachs noted that the incoming Trump administration has clearly expressed support for the current antitrust lawsuits against Google, Amazon, and Meta filed by the U.S. Department of Justice and the FTC.

TikTok Survives

Trump attempted to ban TikTok during his first term. However, Roose stated that reports suggest Trump has changed his mind after being lobbied, although he cannot repeal the TikTok ban without Congressional approval, he can simply refuse to enforce the ban.

Goldman Sachs expects this will increase competition in the digital advertising space, particularly in short videos, making it harder for existing platforms to compete for ad revenue and engagement.

Social Media Shifts Right

Trump was mocked during his term for "governing via Twitter," and Musk's social media platform X will undoubtedly become his "megaphone" during Trump's second term.

Roose anticipates that more large social media companies may shift their policies and practices to the right, like X, in order to avoid conflicts with the new administration