Massive AI Spending "Paves the Way," Is NVIDIA the Big Winner of Earnings Season?

Zhitong
2024.11.07 13:13
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NVIDIA benefits from increased capital expenditures by AI technology companies and is expected to be a big winner in the earnings season. Clients such as Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta have committed to increasing spending in the coming year, with total investments in the third quarter reaching $59 billion, setting a quarterly record. NVIDIA's stock price has nearly doubled this year, surpassing Apple in market capitalization to become the world's most valuable company. Analysts are optimistic about its prospects, with all 67 analysts giving a "buy" rating and profit forecasts raised by about 10%

The financial reports of tech giants this quarter bring a lot of good news for NVIDIA (NVDA.US). The chipmaker's largest customers, including Microsoft (MSFT.US), Alphabet (GOOGL.US), Amazon (AMZN.US), and Meta Platforms (META.US), have all committed to increasing capital expenditures over the next year. Data shows that these four companies invested a total of $59 billion in data center equipment and other fixed assets in the third quarter, setting a quarterly record.

Mike Bailey, head of research at Fulton Breakefield Broenniman, stated, "If you hold NVIDIA stock, then big buyers need to keep buying, and they need to buy more each quarter. You can check that box."

The spending plans of these tech giants are exactly what those bullish on NVIDIA's stock price have been hoping for. The stock has nearly doubled this year, closing up 4.1% on Wednesday, reaching an all-time high. The U.S. stock market generally rose after Trump won the presidential election. This artificial intelligence chipmaker's market value surpassed Apple (AAPL.US) this week, once again becoming the world's most valuable company.

Before NVIDIA releases its financial report on November 20, the financial reports of large tech companies also paint a rosy picture. NVIDIA's stock price fell from its peak in June to a low in August, with its market value shrinking by nearly $900 billion due to doubts about its return on investment in the AI sector and delays in the launch of its new Blackwell chip. Since then, as CEO Jensen Huang assured that Blackwell's production is back on track, their output has rebounded, and the latest evidence of strong AI spending has further alleviated concerns, leading to a recovery in stock price.

Wall Street analysts are very optimistic about NVIDIA, with 67 out of 75 analysts tracked by institutions rating the stock as "buy." They are also continuing to raise expectations, with data compiled showing that in the past three months, they have increased their profit forecasts for next year by about 10%. This helps lower NVIDIA's valuation, with the company's expected price-to-earnings ratio currently around 39 times, down from over 60 times last year.

Analysts Sebastien Naji and Jason Ader from William Blair have raised their forecasts for the fiscal year 2026, stating in a recent report, "Our confidence in NVIDIA's ability to maintain its leadership position in the artificial intelligence infrastructure market only grows." They noted that artificial intelligence seems to be "moving at full speed."

UBS Wealth Management estimates that this year, large technology companies' annual spending on artificial intelligence will increase by 50% to $222 billion, and then grow another 20% by 2025.

Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, stated, "Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta account for nearly half of all artificial intelligence spending, and their strong balance sheets and willingness to invest may continue to support robust growth in AI spending." She indicated that investors should "take advantage of recent volatility to build sufficient exposure to high-quality AI stocks."