Trump's return to the White House will have a huge impact on the global economy

Trump's victory over Harris in the election and his historic return to the White House will have a huge impact on the global economy.

In a speech to his supporters on Wednesday, Trump stated that an "unprecedentedly strong mandate" would bring about "America's golden age."

The former president's package of campaign promises includes high tariffs, tax cuts, deregulation, and pushing to withdraw from key global agreements.

Analysts say it is difficult to determine the extent to which Trump will seek to implement these measures during his second four-year term, but the consequences of any measures will have a significant global impact.

Lizzy Galbraith, a political economist at asset management company Abrdn, stated that it remains to be seen what kind of presidential term investors can expect after Trump's return to the White House. He noted, "Congress plays a very important role in this regard."

Galbraith said, "If Trump really has unified control over Congress (which looks very likely, and we expect to see in the coming weeks and days), then he indeed has greater freedom to implement his tax cut agenda, such as his deregulation agenda, but we may also see him set aside elements of trade policy."

Regarding tariffs, Galbraith mentioned that there are currently two schools of thought. Either Trump tries to use them as bargaining tools to gain concessions from other parties, or he fulfills his promises and implements them more broadly.

Ben May, the global macro research director at Oxford Economics, stated that Trump's return to the White House may have limited direct effects on global growth in the short term, "but it will have significant impacts on trade and growth composition as well as financial markets."

He noted that if the more radical aspects of Trump's policy agenda are adopted, particularly regarding tariffs, the global impact would be "very large."

May stated in a research report, "A key unknown is whether comprehensive sanctions will increase the risk of the Trump administration pursuing more extreme policy measures, such as larger and less targeted tariffs."

He added, "The uncertainty of Trump's stance on the Ukraine and Middle East conflicts also increases the risk of greater instability in these two regions, which could impact regional and even global growth."