Research: Trump's "immigration expulsion" policy will reshape construction, real estate, and agriculture, leading to a GDP contraction of $1.7 trillion
Analysis indicates that a large-scale deportation plan could lead to up to 1 million job vacancies, and the U.S. GDP could shrink by $1.1 trillion to $1.7 trillion. Industries that heavily rely on undocumented immigrant workers will be hit hard, with the construction and agriculture sectors losing one-eighth of their workforce
Trump's imminent return to the White House may prioritize immigration policies that can be advanced solely through presidential power. What does this mean for the U.S. economy?
During his presidential campaign, Trump stated that he had "no choice" but to carry out mass deportations and would do so "at any cost."
According to a report by CNBC on Monday, the plan targets not only recently crossed immigrants but also undocumented workers and temporary workers. In addition to affecting low-skilled labor, stricter immigration policies may also negatively impact skilled workers.
Analysis indicates that a mass deportation plan could lead to up to 1 million job vacancies, with GDP potentially shrinking by $1.1 trillion to $1.7 trillion, severely impacting industries such as construction, real estate, and agriculture.
Nearly 10 million undocumented immigrants working in the U.S., skilled workers will also be affected
There are various statistics regarding the undocumented immigrant population in the U.S. The left-leaning organization Center for American Progress estimates that the number of undocumented immigrants is about 11.3 million, with 7 million employed. Advocacy groups supporting expanded immigration, such as the American Immigration Council, cite data from the American Community Survey, also estimating the number of undocumented immigrants at around 11 million. The nonpartisan research center Pew Research estimates the number of undocumented immigrants to be close to 8 million.
Currently, the U.S. labor market is experiencing a shortage, and although the most severe period of labor crisis post-pandemic has passed, the balance between labor supply and demand has only recently been restored. However, the number of workers available to fill positions remains a significant concern. Employers and economists indicate that mass deportations will exacerbate this economic issue.
Jason Leverant, President and COO of national recruiting agency AtWork Group, stated, if the proposed immigration policy is implemented, it could have a significant impact. It is estimated that a mass deportation plan could lead to up to 1 million difficult-to-fill job vacancies. AtWork provides recruitment services for immigrant-heavy verticals such as warehousing, industrial, and agriculture across 39 states.
In addition, there are concerns that stricter immigration policies may negatively impact skilled workers.
Leverant further stated:
This is not just a low-skilled labor issue; it also affects skilled workers and engineers. The U.S. does not have enough technical talent to fill these positions. While doctors and scientists will not be rounded up and deported, restrictions on H-1B visas and a generally unwelcoming atmosphere may hinder talent from coming.
Janeesa Hollingshead, Expansion Director at ride-sharing company Uber Works, also believes:
If the past was a prologue, then technology will also be affected. The tech industry heavily relies on immigrants to fill high-skill, critical positions. During Trump's first term, Uber informed all tech workers holding H-1B visas that if they went home for vacation, they might not be able to return.
Construction, real estate, and agriculture may be severely impacted, with GDP potentially shrinking by $1.7 trillion
Nan Wu, the research director of the American Immigration Council (AIC), shares concerns similar to others, stating that if the number of deportations rises after Trump takes office, consumers will be thrown into chaos.
Nan Wu cited AIC research data indicating that mass deportations would exacerbate the labor shortage in the United States, particularly in industries that heavily rely on undocumented immigrant workers:
The construction industry will lose one-eighth of its workers, with 14% of construction workers in the U.S. being undocumented immigrants. Removing so many workers in a short period will drive up construction costs, leading to delays in new home construction, making housing even less affordable in many areas.
The same situation applies to the agricultural industry, which will also lose one-eighth of its workers. About one-quarter of farm workers, agricultural graders, and packers are undocumented workers. Losing agricultural workers who plant, harvest, and package food will harm U.S. food production and drive up prices.
It is worth mentioning that the cost of deporting immigrants is also quite high. The American Immigration Council estimates that in a long-term mass deportation effort, deporting one million people annually will average a cost of $88 billion per year, with a total cost over ten years reaching $967.9 billion. Additionally, AIC research shows that immigration plans could lead to a reduction in U.S. GDP by $1.1 trillion to $1.7 trillion.